T2P_Priceless
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Here’s my quick, grounded outlook for 2025 Tennessee, based on what we know right now.
Offense (swingy):
Defense (stable-to-elite):
Why 9–3 is most likely: The market/computers love the defense (SP+ No. 4), the schedule is manageable outside of UGA/Bama, and the offense has enough raw juice to be better in November than September—just not proven enough to project a clean run through those heavies today. On3University of Tennessee Athletics
If you want, I can map out win probabilities game-by-game from SP+ and note where your WR/OL “youth breakout” assumptions would swing things 3–5% per matchup.
Snapshot
- Identity: Defense-first again. ESPN’s final preseason SP+ has the Vols No. 4 on defense, No. 33 on offense, No. 12 overall (avg. win total ~8.9). That tracks with the last two seasons where the D has carried more of the load. On3
- Roster texture: More proven pieces return on defense (≈67% returning production) than on offense (≈49%). Offense traded “experienced but capped” for “younger, higher-upside but unproven,” especially at WR/OL. Rocky Top Talk
- QB room: After the Nico → UCLA saga, Joey Aguilar (App State → UCLA → UT) is trending toward QB1; big arm, real experience, but turnover history that Heupel is trying to rein in. True frosh George MacIntyre is flashing but more of a future play. ESPN.comCBSSports.comSIRocky Top Talk
Unit-by-unit
Offense (swingy):
- WRs: More talent, less proof. Chris Brazzell (Tulane transfer) is working back from a camp injury; sophomores Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley have legit breakout buzz. If two of those three hit, the ceiling jumps. Rocky Top Talk+1
- OL: Expect ~4 new starters rotating in; that usually means early volatility in protection/penalty rates before it gels. Rocky Top Talk
- QB fit: Aguilar knows how to push it (6,760 yds/56 TD last two years at App State) but also threw 24 INTs over that span; success hinges on cutting the freebies while getting to Heupel tempo. CBSSports.com
Defense (stable-to-elite):
- Coordinator continuity: Tim Banks is back on an extension; culture and scheme continuity matter. ESPN.comUniversity of Tennessee Athletics
- Talent churn: Replacing James Pearce Jr. (1st-rounder) is non-trivial, but the front seven remains deep (Bailey, Moi, Eason, West; Hobbs’ health is one to watch). Secondary returns legit pieces. Expect top-10-ish performance again. Atlanta Falcons247SportsRocky Top Talk
Schedule shape & swing games
- Non-conf: Syracuse (neutral, ATL) → ETSU → UAB → NMSU. Should be 3–1/4–0 with Syracuse the only real test. University of Tennessee Athletics
- SEC home heavies: Georgia (Sept 13), Oklahoma (Nov 1), Arkansas, Vanderbilt in Knoxville. Georgia is the barometer; OU feels like a true toss-up if the offense matures. University of Tennessee Athletics
- SEC roads: @Miss State, @Alabama, @kentucky, @Florida. The @bama and @Florida trips likely decide 9 vs 10 wins. University of Tennessee Athletics
Prediction (regular season)
- Base case: 9–3 (5–3 SEC) — defense holds top-10 form; offense is average-to-good with occasional volatility.
- Ceiling: 10–2 — hits if Aguilar protects the ball and two young WRs pop.
- Floor: 7–5 — if OL cohesion lags and the turnover bug bites in Tuscaloosa/Gainesville/UGA.
Why 9–3 is most likely: The market/computers love the defense (SP+ No. 4), the schedule is manageable outside of UGA/Bama, and the offense has enough raw juice to be better in November than September—just not proven enough to project a clean run through those heavies today. On3University of Tennessee Athletics
If you want, I can map out win probabilities game-by-game from SP+ and note where your WR/OL “youth breakout” assumptions would swing things 3–5% per matchup.
