Advanced Metrics Nonsense

#651
#651
n_huffhines said:
Yeah I did. It all averages out. Sure Ray Allen alters some shots that don't go in the stat book, but I can confidently say that Wade alters more shots than Ray Ray because he blocks way more shots than Ray Ray.
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Watch one quarter of a game and this evident. That's my point, you don't need stats to tell you this.
 
#652
#652
It was an example chosen to firmly illustrate the point, and BTW Wade is probably the best shot-blocking guard ever. If you want, compare a guy who gets 2 bpg to a guy who gets 1.5 bpg...watching them over a season you wouldn't know who blocks or alters the most shots without the data. That person who got 2 bpg is very likely to have altered more shots that season. There are exceptions to every rule, and I know you will want to argue that there are cases where this wouldn't be true. I don't argue that stats are always right, I argue that they are right a lot more than scouts are.

40% success rate with lottery picks. The best player ever is the worst GM ever. Yeah Larry Bird did well, but somebody has to win. The NBA is very bad at assessing talent.

Who would you like to compare? I'll tell you what the numbers say.
 
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#654
#654
GahLee said:
Watch one quarter of a game and this evident. That's my point, you don't need stats to tell you this.
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Again, I used an example where we could all agree that one was better than the other.

What about comparing Tony Allen, or Micheal Jordan to Wade in altering shots? I wouldn't trust anybody's opinion on this without data to support it. There is no way anybody can accurately distinguish them as shot-alterers from a season or career perspective without data.
 
#656
#656
Actually I'm about to walk into work so I don't wanna hear the stats, maybe another time.

I named Bird and West, cause I love when people throw out MJ and say players can't evaluate talent.

We need to have these discussions in a different time frame. We always get in to them around noonish, I work at 2:30. We need our secretary's to set these up at a better time.
 
#657
#657
BadJerry20 said:
Actually I'm about to walk into work so I don't wanna hear the stats, maybe another time.

I named Bird and West, cause I love when people throw out MJ and say players can't evaluate talent.

We need to have these discussions in a different time frame. We always get in to them around noonish, I work at 2:30. We need our secretary's to set these up at a better time.
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But they can't. Have you ever paid attention to the failure rate in the draft? The failure of deadline trades to make teams contenders? From coaches, to scouts, to GMs, to talking heads, the majority seem to be former players, and they tend to all agree on some really stupid things...like that Melo belonged in the MVP conversation or that Isiah Thomas was building a contender in NY (nobody remembers it this way, but analysts were freaking out because New York was signing what was considered high-profile talent below market value).
 
#658
#658
Danny Ainge, Bird and West disagree. Saying they all can't is ridiculous, sure some have failed but some have succeed. Just like some stat boys would succeed and some would fail. Neither stats or the eye test are a sure way too tell. A common ground between the 2 probably would have the most success.
 
#659
#659
n_huffhines said:
Again, I used an example where we could all agree that one was better than the other.

What about comparing Tony Allen, or Micheal Jordan to Wade in altering shots? I wouldn't trust anybody's opinion on this without data to support it. There is no way anybody can accurately distinguish them as shot-alterers from a season or career perspective without data.
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Tony Allen and Jordan are/were better on ball defenders than Wade. They may not block as many shots but I'd bet the house that they alter more.
 
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#660
#660
BadJerry20 said:
Danny Ainge, Bird and West disagree. Saying they all can't is ridiculous, sure some have failed but some have succeed. Just like some stat boys would succeed and some would fail. Neither stats or the eye test are a sure way too tell. A common ground between the 2 probably would have the most success.
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You definitely need eyes to help interpret the stats. You also can't interpret what you see without the stats. Nobody would know who the top rebounders or scorers are unless they see the stats.

Where people get into trouble is they get emotionally involved and they misremember what they've seen. When we evaluate Paul George based on the last series his two monster dunks stand out and are probably going to lead us to overrate him because we were so dazzled. He had 3 terrible games in that series but it'll be remembered as his "coming out party" and the 2 jams.

Harden didn't have spectacular jams in the playoffs last year, and people tend to remember that he had 3 bad games against Miami (just like George) and forget that the Thunder don't get past the Spurs without Harden.

You can look at either one and say overall they did awesome in the playoffs and you can also say they choked when it came down to it. Both would be true. The latter isn't a very fair assessment, but we don't care what is fair. We assess players based on what stands out most in our minds.
 
#661
#661
n_huffhines said:
You definitely need eyes to help interpret the stats. You also can't interpret what you see without the stats. Nobody would know who the top rebounders or scorers are unless they see the stats.

Where people get into trouble is they get emotionally involved and they misremember what they've seen. When we evaluate Paul George based on the last series his two monster dunks stand out and are probably going to lead us to overrate him because we were so dazzled. He had 3 terrible games in that series but it'll be remembered as his "coming out party" and the 2 jams.

Harden didn't have spectacular jams in the playoffs last year, and people tend to remember that he had 3 bad games against Miami (just like George) and forget that the Thunder don't get past the Spurs without Harden.

You can look at either one and say overall they did awesome in the playoffs and you can also say they choked when it came down to it. Both would be true. The latter isn't a very fair assessment, but we don't care what is fair. We assess players based on what stands out most in our minds.
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Agree with a lot of this.
 
#662
#662
GahLee said:
Tony Allen and Jordan are/were better on ball defenders than Wade. They may not block as many shots but I'd bet the house that they alter more.
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You're not playing the odds, friend-o. You're also over-valuing your expertise. Kahneman's book will demonstrate that you and basically everybody else on the planet does this.
 
#663
#663
n_huffhines said:
You're not playing the odds, friend-o. You're also over-valuing your expertise. Kahneman's book will demonstrate that you and basically everybody else on the planet does this.
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Gahlees argument actually makes perfect sense. MJ and Allen get/got a hand up and contest most every shot. Wade is great at helping off his man and getting blocks. Therefore he probably doesn't alter nearly as many shots as a MJ and Allen. Surely you don't think Wade is as good a defender as those 2 guys.
 
#664
#664
n_huffhines said:
You definitely need eyes to help interpret the stats. You also can't interpret what you see without the stats. Nobody would know who the top rebounders or scorers are unless they see the stats.

Where people get into trouble is they get emotionally involved and they misremember what they've seen. When we evaluate Paul George based on the last series his two monster dunks stand out and are probably going to lead us to overrate him because we were so dazzled. He had 3 terrible games in that series but it'll be remembered as his "coming out party" and the 2 jams.

Harden didn't have spectacular jams in the playoffs last year, and people tend to remember that he had 3 bad games against Miami (just like George) and forget that the Thunder don't get past the Spurs without Harden.

You can look at either one and say overall they did awesome in the playoffs and you can also say they choked when it came down to it. Both would be true. The latter isn't a very fair assessment, but we don't care what is fair. We assess players based on what stands out most in our minds.
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I agree with this, except when I watched Rodman or MJ for example I could tell you those guys were leading the league in rebs and points respectively, without seeing their stats.
 
#665
#665
n_huffhines said:
You definitely need eyes to help interpret the stats. You also can't interpret what you see without the stats. Nobody would know who the top rebounders or scorers are unless they see the stats.

Where people get into trouble is they get emotionally involved and they misremember what they've seen. When we evaluate Paul George based on the last series his two monster dunks stand out and are probably going to lead us to overrate him because we were so dazzled. He had 3 terrible games in that series but it'll be remembered as his "coming out party" and the 2 jams.

Harden didn't have spectacular jams in the playoffs last year, and people tend to remember that he had 3 bad games against Miami (just like George) and forget that the Thunder don't get past the Spurs without Harden.

You can look at either one and say overall they did awesome in the playoffs and you can also say they choked when it came down to it. Both would be true. The latter isn't a very fair assessment, but we don't care what is fair. We assess players based on what stands out most in our minds.
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You assume what people are able to process and remember.
 
#666
#666
n_huffhines said:
You're not playing the odds, friend-o. You're also over-valuing your expertise. Kahneman's book will demonstrate that you and basically everybody else on the planet does this.
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Kahneman can suck it, I don't care what he thinks.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what I'm saying.

Allen and Jordan are/were better on-ball defenders.
 
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#667
#667
BadJerry20 said:
I agree with this, except when I watched Rodman or MJ for example I could tell you those guys were leading the league in rebs and points respectively, without seeing their stats.
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No way. No chance. You're misremembering. Kahneman tells us that we are all inherently retarded and aren't able to process the information we see with our eyes. Instead we should turn everything into a spreadsheet so we can allow ourselves to digest what we just watched.

I certainly couldn't tell that D. Wade and Bosh played like utter trash throughout the ECF's, only after the game was over, when I checked the stats did fully understand that yes, they both indeed played like utter trash.
 
#668
#668
BadJerry20 said:
Gahlees argument actually makes perfect sense. MJ and Allen get/got a hand up and contest most every shot. Wade is great at helping off his man and getting blocks. Therefore he probably doesn't alter nearly as many shots as a MJ and Allen. Surely you don't think Wade is as good a defender as those 2 guys.
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Exactly. He gets more blocks because he's an excellent help defender, more blocks doesn't equate to more altered shots, that would go to the guys who consistently contest their mans shot.

Shane Battier is a prime example. Look at his BPG, pretty lowly but everyone who has seen him play knows that nearly every time his man shoots, he has his hand directly in their face, he's not going for a block, he's simply trying to alter his opponents shot.
 
#669
#669
GahLee said:
No way. No chance. You're misremembering. Kahneman tells us that we are all inherently retarded and aren't able to process the information we see with our eyes. Instead we should turn everything into a spreadsheet so we can allow ourselves to digest what we just watched.

I certainly couldn't tell that D. Wade and Bosh played like utter trash throughout the ECF's, only after the game was over, when I checked the stats did fully understand that yes, they both indeed played like utter trash.
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So much Lulz in this post. Nice work.
 
#670
#670
BadJerry20 said:
Gahlees argument actually makes perfect sense. MJ and Allen get/got a hand up and contest most every shot. Wade is great at helping off his man and getting blocks. Therefore he probably doesn't alter nearly as many shots as a MJ and Allen. Surely you don't think Wade is as good a defender as those 2 guys.
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The question is who altered more shots? If they are better on-the-ball defenders, and Wade is the better help defender, I don't know why that means they alter more shots. If they are the better on-the-ball defenders then they are (1) denying their man the ball (2) playing such good D their man should pass the ball (3) taking the ball from him before he shoots.

Wade might not be as good on the ball, but since he's better at help D he is not only altering his own man's shot, he's altering others. Wade could also be excellent at goading his man into taking blockable shots, which would also mean he's goading them into shots he alters but don't go in the stat book.

I think my reasoning makes sense. I'm the only one who seems to realize we don't know without seeing the data. Gahlee is ready to bet his house on it.
 
#671
#671
BadJerry20 said:
I agree with this, except when I watched Rodman or MJ for example I could tell you those guys were leading the league in rebs and points respectively, without seeing their stats.
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Yeah, the top guy in extreme conditions. What about the top 10 of each?
 
#672
#672
GahLee said:
Kahneman can suck it, I don't care what he thinks.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what I'm saying.

Allen and Jordan are/were better on-ball defenders.
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I don't refute that point.

Your superhuman cognitive skills have led you to argue a moot point.
 
#673
#673
GahLee said:
No way. No chance. You're misremembering. Kahneman tells us that we are all inherently retarded and aren't able to process the information we see with our eyes. Instead we should turn everything into a spreadsheet so we can allow ourselves to digest what we just watched.

I certainly couldn't tell that D. Wade and Bosh played like utter trash throughout the ECF's, only after the game was over, when I checked the stats did fully understand that yes, they both indeed played like utter trash.
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Dude, this is not a point I made. When a player blows for 7 games it's not hard to evaluate. What's hard to determine is a player's performance over an 82 game season where they experience ups and downs. A guy who starts the season slow and finishes slow is going to get underrated for his season's contribution. A guy who happens to have good games on national TV is going to get overrated for his season's contribution. A guy who scores will tend to be overrated because that's whose mug is on the Sportscenter highlights.

How many rebounds do you have to get before ESPN shows a highlight of one of your rebounds? 20? You can't possibly take the various snap shots of what you see in the league, remember them all, and have enough complete information to accurately rank players for value. It's not happening.

Argue that point, not points I'm not making.
 
#674
#674
n_huffhines said:
Me? What question?
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Nerd-Vol said:
There is a lot to be said for a player's personality and what they bring to a team. Also people develop a strong loyalty towards the players on their teams if they are a part of bringing them success. Isiah may not have been the greatest from a stats standpoint but he was certainly a key part of that "Bad Boys" philosophy that worked so well for them.

Also I think there are factors that cannot be directly attributed to stats to determine a player's worth.

Let's say for instance that Allen Iverson was a very good player purely from a statistical standpoint, but his poor attitude and inability to get along with teammates is still there. Do we value him as highly as a slightly lower performing player who has a great attitude and can motivate his teammates?
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.
 
#675
#675
n_huffhines said:
Yeah, the top guy in extreme conditions. What about the top 10 of each?
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Well technically you said top rebounders and scorers. But yes watching games I could tell you LBJ, KD, Westbrook, Love, Melo, Kobe are the top scorers in the league. By watching I could tell you Rodman, Barkley, Ewing, Shaq, Malone, Willis, etc..were top rebounders in the league. Its not exactly rocket surgery to see who scores a lot or who rebounds.
 
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