Advanced Metrics Nonsense

#626
#626
GahLee said:
I'd bet I watch as much as anyone here and while I appreciate the info you bring, I know that I have a good memory of the things I've seen from players over the last 15 or so years of diligently watching the NBA.

The notion that the eye test is flawed is beyond absurd.
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We've got a superhuman here. Somebody call Stan Lee.
 
#627
#627
From last night. Thought you could add this stat to your collection

I've even developed my own advanced stat called Points Plus(TM). It's a sure fire way to tell if your team has won the ball game.

Check it out and try to keep up:

At the end of the game take the opponents score, then add one. If your team's point total is equal to or greater than that number, then your team has won the game. It's a great predictor of who has won the game.

Points Plus(TM).
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#629
#629
GahLee said:
I'm sorry if your memory falls you epically, the fact that mine doesn't in no way makes me superhuman but that fact that yours does
may in fact make you subhuman.
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Our brains don't work the way we think they work. What we experience and what we remember are two very different things. Our brains are remarkable, but we need to understand where they are limited. Example of what I'm talking about:

Experiment A:
Hold hand in 25 degree water for 30 seconds

Experiment B:
Hold hand in 25 degree water for 30 seconds, then another 30 seconds in 30 degree water

The data shows immediately after the experience participants will say experiment A is worse. Our "remembering selves" don't match what we actually experience. If we can't even remember well enough to accurately assess something we personally experienced just minutes before, how can we expect to remember every play in a game and know the value and impact it had? Let alone in a season. This is what talent scouts think they can do. This is what fans thing they can do. It's impossible.

Kahneman's book is 500 pages of these kinds of experiments proving you wrong.
 
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#630
#630
n_huffhines said:
You think I write stats while watching the game? What do you mean by "really" watching?

All the other guys have heard it a million times, but you can't accurately assess a player by watching. You can watch a team an entire season, and you can't tell me who shot 55% and who shot 50%, but that's the difference between winning and losing. All you can tell me is who looks like they have the sweetest stroke, but that tells you nothing about how effective they are.
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Yes I really think you do. I picture with 5 notebooks laid on a table writing down numbers, calculating figures, maybe an hour glass, probably wearing some glasses, with your hair sticking in 7 different directions, while screaming out numbers. Mainly cause it makes me chuckle. You are absolutely right watching does nothing, from now on I'm just checking stats.
 
#631
#631
n_huffhines said:
BTW, excluding the Grizzly fans here who can and do watch every Memphis game, I'd guess I watched more hoops than anybody on this message board this season. Maybe even more than them.

This is science. You should know how your brain works. Daniel Kahneman is an nobel prize winner who will tell you why you can't fairly assess players by watching and remembering (though he doesn't mention basketball).

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XgRlrBl-7Yg[/youtube]
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I'm sure everyone on here would claim they watch more than anyone else. I'm not a grizzlies fan, and I watch a ton of every team. Well maybe not the Bobcats and Raptors, but I watch a lot of basketball. I, as I'm sure most here are, am a basketball junky have been for 24 years. So I probably have you in experience. Lol
 
#632
#632
BadJerry20 said:
Yes I really think you do. I picture with 5 notebooks laid on a table writing down numbers, calculating figures, maybe an hour glass, probably wearing some glasses, with your hair sticking in 7 different directions, while screaming out numbers. Mainly cause it makes me chuckle. You are absolutely right watching does nothing, from now on I'm just checking stats.
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You watch for entertainment. I don't know people that say, "I'm going to watch this game to figure why the winning team wins." That's what stats are for.

Without fail the team who wins is the team who scores efficiently, rebounds well, and maximizes turnover margin. Why people value players like Isiah Thomas (who doesn't rebound well, score efficiently, and is average with turnover margin) I'll never understand.
 
#633
#633
n_huffhines said:
Our brains don't work the way we think they work. What we experience and what we remember are two very different things. Our brains are remarkable, but we need to understand where they are limited. Example of what I'm talking about:

Experiment A:
Hold hand in 25 degree water for 30 seconds

Experiment B:
Hold hand in 25 degree water for 30 seconds, then another 30 seconds in 30 degree water

The data shows immediately after the experience participants will say experiment A is worse. Our "remembering selves" don't match what we actually experience. If we can't even remember well enough to accurately assess something we personally experienced just minutes before, how can we expect to remember every play in a game and know the value and impact it had? Let alone in a season. This is what talent scouts think they can do. This is what fans thing they can do. It's impossible.

Kahneman's book is 500 pages of these kinds of experiments proving you wrong.
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What does that have to do with basketball?

And who said you had to remember every play?

You don't need to know every detail of every play ran during a game to know what's going on.

Stats are a nice reference point, they aren't the end all to every discussion.
 
#634
#634
n_huffhines said:
You watch for entertainment. I don't know people that say, "I'm going to watch this game to figure why the winning team wins." That's what stats are for.

Without fail the team who wins is the team who scores efficiently, rebounds well, and maximizes turnover margin. Why people value players like Isiah Thomas (who doesn't rebound well, score efficiently, and is average with turnover margin) I'll never understand.
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I know why teams are winning, I can see it. SMH I don't have to jot down stats to know why. I love stats, and I appreciate your love for stats, but I really wonder how you enjoy a game. Do you or did you ever play? I played PG in high school and 2 years of college, I have a fairly firm grasp of what makes a good player and what doesn't. Stats are fun but they are not the end all be all, of determining a players worth. You cant quantity hustle, or how many times a player hits the deck for a loose ball, or deflects a pass or alters a shot, or sets a good pick.
 
#635
#635
n_huffhines said:
You watch for entertainment. I don't know people that say, "I'm going to watch this game to figure why the winning team wins." That's what stats are for.

Without fail the team who wins is the team who scores efficiently, rebounds well, and maximizes turnover margin. Why people value players like Isiah Thomas (who doesn't rebound well, score efficiently, and is average with turnover margin) I'll never understand.
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I believe most people who watch can understand why a team is winning while being entertained.

As for Thomas, he was the leader of a two time championship team. Enough said.
 
#636
#636
n_huffhines said:
You watch for entertainment. I don't know people that say, "I'm going to watch this game to figure why the winning team wins." That's what stats are for.

Without fail the team who wins is the team who scores efficiently, rebounds well, and maximizes turnover margin. Why people value players like Isiah Thomas (who doesn't rebound well, score efficiently, and is average with turnover margin) I'll never understand.
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There is a lot to be said for a player's personality and what they bring to a team. Also people develop a strong loyalty towards the players on their teams if they are a part of bringing them success. Isiah may not have been the greatest from a stats standpoint but he was certainly a key part of that "Bad Boys" philosophy that worked so well for them.

Also I think there are factors that cannot be directly attributed to stats to determine a player's worth.

Let's say for instance that Allen Iverson was a very good player purely from a statistical standpoint, but his poor attitude and inability to get along with teammates is still there. Do we value him as highly as a slightly lower performing player who has a great attitude and can motivate his teammates?
 
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#637
#637
Nerd-Vol said:
There is a lot to be said for a player's personality and what they bring to a team. Also people develop a strong loyalty towards the players on their teams if they are a part of bringing them success. Isiah may not have been the greatest from a stats standpoint but he was certainly a key part of that "Bad Boys" philosophy that worked so well for them.

Also I think there are factors that cannot be directly attributed to stats to determine a player's worth.

Let's say for instance that Allen Iverson was a very good player purely from a statistical standpoint, but his poor attitude and inability to get along with teammates is still there. Do we value him as highly as a slightly lower performing player who has a great attitude and can motivate his teammates?
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I'm pretty sure he thinks AI sucked from a stats point of view.
 
#639
#639
Nerd-Vol said:
There is a lot to be said for a player's personality and what they bring to a team. Also people develop a strong loyalty towards the players on their teams if they are a part of bringing them success. Isiah may not have been the greatest from a stats standpoint but he was certainly a key part of that "Bad Boys" philosophy that worked so well for them.

Also I think there are factors that cannot be directly attributed to stats to determine a player's worth.

Let's say for instance that Allen Iverson was a very good player purely from a statistical standpoint, but his poor attitude and inability to get along with teammates is still there. Do we value him as highly as a slightly lower performing player who has a great attitude and can motivate his teammates?
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Huff might have the exact opposite take on AI
 
#640
#640
BadJerry20 said:
I know why teams are winning, I can see it. SMH I don't have to jot down stats to know why. I love stats, and I appreciate your love for stats, but I really wonder how you enjoy a game. Do you or did you ever play? I played PG in high school and 2 years of college, I have a fairly firm grasp of what makes a good player and what doesn't. Stats are fun but they are not the end all be all, of determining a players worth. You cant quantity hustle, or how many times a player hits the deck for a loose ball, or deflects a pass or alters a shot, or sets a good pick.
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Michael Jordan played a lot more ball than both of us, and apparently he doesn't understand what makes teams win. Same thing goes for your boy Zeke.

You can quantify hustle. Kevin Love gets a ton of rebounds. He also sprints more than anybody else in the league. He hustles. The player that most often hits the deck for a loose ball is going to end up with more steals, blocks, and rebounds then he would if he didn't hustle. It's all captured in their season averages. You may have a game where you hustled your ass off and got no steals, and then you may have games where you were lazy and 3 steals were just given to you, but over 82 games it averages out and we can see who hustled this season.
 
#641
#641
The reason I asked if you played Huff was cause I'm wondering how you all picked teams. My guess would be from watching guys and knowing how they played. No stats on the playground. When we played if I got Curt (shut up Nerd), it was game over cause we were gonna pick and roll people to death.
 
#642
#642
BadJerry20 said:
The reason I asked if you played Huff was cause I'm wondering how you all picked teams. My guess would be from watching guys and knowing how they played. No stats on the playground. When we played if I got Curt (shut up Nerd), it was game over cause we were gonna pick and roll people to death.
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Curt was great with the pick and roll. Stop name dropping people no one knows. :eek:lol:
 
#643
#643
n_huffhines said:
Michael Jordan played a lot more ball than both of us, and apparently he doesn't understand what makes teams win. Same thing goes for your boy Zeke.

You can quantify hustle. Kevin Love gets a ton of rebounds. He also sprints more than anybody else in the league. He hustles. The player that most often hits the deck for a loose ball is going to end up with more steals, blocks, and rebounds then he would if he didn't hustle. It's all captured in their season averages. You may have a game where you hustled your ass off and got no steals, and then you may have games where you were lazy and 3 steals were just given to you, but over 82 games it averages out and we can see who hustled this season.
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So that's why Kevin Love's blocks and steals per game averages are so high.

Oh wait.
 
#644
#644
Stats aren't needed to understand everything about the game. They help within the margins of a player or a game itself.
 
#645
#645
n_huffhines said:
Michael Jordan played a lot more ball than both of us, and apparently he doesn't understand what makes teams win. Same thing goes for your boy Zeke.

You can quantify hustle. Kevin Love gets a ton of rebounds. He also sprints more than anybody else in the league. He hustles. The player that most often hits the deck for a loose ball is going to end up with more steals, blocks, and rebounds then he would if he didn't hustle. It's all captured in their season averages. You may have a game where you hustled your ass off and got no steals, and then you may have games where you were lazy and 3 steals were just given to you, but over 82 games it averages out and we can see who hustled this season.
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Michael Jordan's career as a suit has been such an unmitigated disaster because he's surrounded himself with "yes" men, some of whom have no business being in the business they're in.
 
#646
#646
n_huffhines said:
Michael Jordan played a lot more ball than both of us, and apparently he doesn't understand what makes teams win. Same thing goes for your boy Zeke.

You can quantify hustle. Kevin Love gets a ton of rebounds. He also sprints more than anybody else in the league. He hustles. The player that most often hits the deck for a loose ball is going to end up with more steals, blocks, and rebounds then he would if he didn't hustle. It's all captured in their season averages. You may have a game where you hustled your ass off and got no steals, and then you may have games where you were lazy and 3 steals were just given to you, but over 82 games it averages out and we can see who hustled this season.
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So did Bird and Jerry West, they do know. That point works both ways.


Lol at quantifying all hustle plays. You didn't address altered shots or tipped passes. I'll wait...
 
#648
#648
GahLee said:
So that's why Kevin Love's blocks and steals per game averages are so high.

Oh wait.
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He doesn't have the leaping ability to get blocks or the quickness to get steals, but his hustle is captured in other categories.

Ultimately if you have the talent of a Rudy, hustle won't get you anywhere. We're talking about hustle that gets results. Maybe you're not. No amount of hustle will make Love a good shot blocker.
 
#649
#649
BadJerry20 said:
So did Bird and Jerry West, they do know. That point works both ways.


Lol at quantifying all hustle plays. You didn't address altered shots or tipped passes. I'll wait...
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Yeah I did. It all averages out. Sure Ray Allen alters some shots that don't go in the stat book, but I can confidently say that Wade alters more shots than Ray Ray because he blocks way more shots than Ray Ray.
 
#650
#650
n_huffhines said:
Yeah I did. It all averages out. Sure Ray Allen alters some shots that don't go in the stat book, but I can confidently say that Wade alters more shots than Ray Ray because he blocks way more shots than Ray Ray.
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Lmao you did not just use Ray as an example for altering shots vs D Wade one of the better shot blocking SGs in the NBA. I am disappointed in you Huff.
 
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