I actually took Rivals' 5* list and compared it to the NFL draft lists. It wasn't hard. It just took a lot of time I'm not willing to invest again. Again, my memory isn't perfect but relative to each other those numbers are pretty close I believe.
It factors. But I don't think it is as much as you think. Other than a few players with name power... NFL franchises do their own work. That's how they find no name WR's from DIII teams that become stars.
Maybe a little worse in addition to that... is they basically plagiarize by using the "who is recruiting them" and "is Bama recruiting them" standard. Bama like every other major program uses recruit research firms to evaluate HS players. Schools pay them pretty big money to create lists of players that the staff then evaluates. Indirectly, the fan recruiting sites "steal" the research of these firms.
We need the best players Pruitt can find and sign regardless of their ranking.... then we need them to be developed, coached up, well disciplined, well managed, in a system that works and manages player health well.
Jones found some good players... he frustrated and made most of them worse with his "innovative" ideas about development and his ridiculous system.