5 commits in 5 days........FB recruiting on fire

#53
#53
89 VOLS grad said:

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247sports.com

There are lots of similar articles that show that 4-5 star talent makes up about 85-90% of NFL rosters.
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I read the linked article and couldn't find anything that states that former 4/5 stars make up any particular range of percentages of NFL rosters. Maybe you have another link that does?

Here's the questions I would like to see answered:

Of the 1,696 opening day NFL players (28 teams x 53 players each), how many were ...
5 stars?
4 stars?
3 stars?
2 stars?
No rating at time of draft?

I can't seem to find that data. Maybe some of you can.
 
#54
#54
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Public Service Announcement: don't let anybody chase you away from the RF. I have probably about 3,000 of my all-time 11,000 plus VN posts over in the RF forum and while there is a Circle Jerk gang over there that reflexively attacks any post not pumping maximum sunshine, don't let those guys run you off. There are alot of good posters over there and good information over, and the Circle Jerk gang doesn't know anymore than anyone else, less actually, remember most of those guys are the ones who hung in with Botch and Beldar until the very end.
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We are funny people.
 
#58
#58
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
No, I just watch what the most successful teams do and then comment when I see the Vols doing the opposite.

We will NEVER contend for championships this way. Maybe we can lose in the first round of a playoff if we luck out with the schedule, but this is not the path to becoming an elite program. We seem to go after highly ranked quarterbacks and edge rushers, only to jump on whoever is willing to have us like it’s last call at the bar for the rest of the roster.
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Your name is perfect to describe your view of the Vol world.
 
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#59
#59
Tnphil said:
Believe what you will with stars.....But I challenge anybody to go back just to our NC year 1998....Look at all the schools that played for the BCS national championships and see what their star rankings were......Then go to the 4 teams that played in the 4 team playoffs and their star rankings....look at the national champions star rankings in those years....Then look at the final 4 of this past seasons playoff and NC game and what the star rankings were.

Again...believe what you want.....But stars do matter.
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No one is saying they don't matter. But they aren't the end all. If they were, why spend time and money going to evaluate talent? Just get the rankings and spend all your time and money on those guys--whether they are a fit or not.
 
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#60
#60
89 VOLS grad said:
You are totally wrong. Approximately 90% of the NFL rosters today are made up of 4-5 star recruits out to high school!
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Not sure where you are getting your numbers, but a crosscheck with Google says that 7% were 5*s, 31% were 4*s, and 46% were 3*s.

Its a numbers game because 4&5*s are more likely to make it, but they make up a smaller fraction of the population (only 1% of recruits are 5*s).

So yes, lots of top recruits make it to the NFL, but the majority of the league is 3 and lower.
 
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#62
#62
NATHAN05 said:
For those of us who are scared to enter and/or have been chased off from the recruiting forum, I just wanted to give a shout out to Heupel and staff. Nice little 5 commits in 5 days going on. And I'd like think all 3 (Bey, Anderson, Golston) should be getting that 4* soon.

***This message was brought to you by OP who risked life and limb, standing quietly in the corner of the room of the recruiting forum with his Zima and Jolly rancher trying to look cool and hoping to see a familiar face that he could talk to, to make it seemed like he belonged***


View attachment 752124View attachment 752125
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Recruiting is fairly meaningless compared to the pre Ohio case decision.. I don't get excited about recruiting any more. I get excited about who shows up and shows out on game day, whomever they may be.
 
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#63
#63
Volinnooga said:
Your name is perfect to describe your view of the Vol world.
Click to expand...
Do you think that the way Heupel is building a roster is a remotely possible way to contending for championships? Because I don’t. We had the worst Transfer Class in Power Conference football and aren’t cracking the top 10 in high school guys, despite placing much more recruiting focus on the high school ranks than every other Power Conference team.
 
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#65
#65
Danl said:
I read the linked article and couldn't find anything that states that former 4/5 stars make up any particular range of percentages of NFL rosters. Maybe you have another link that does?

Here's the questions I would like to see answered:

Of the 1,696 opening day NFL players (28 teams x 53 players each), how many were ...
5 stars?
4 stars?
3 stars?
2 stars?
No rating at time of draft?

I can't seem to find that data. Maybe some of you can.
Click to expand...
the bit dated but does answer a fee questions
lastwordonsports.com

What Do Those Star Ratings Mean?

When discussing recruits, we often hear that star ratings mean very little. We analyze the question: what do those star ratings mean exactly?
lastwordonsports.com
 
#66
#66
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
Do you think that the way Heupel is building a roster is a remotely possible way to contending for championships? Because I don’t. We had the worst Transfer Class in Power Conference football and aren’t cracking the top 10 in high school guys, despite placing much more recruiting focus on the high school ranks than every other Power Conference team.
Click to expand...

Must have been a damn miracle that we made the playoffs. With a turncoat at QB.
 
#67
#67
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
No, I just watch what the most successful teams do and then comment when I see the Vols doing the opposite.

We will NEVER contend for championships this way. Maybe we can lose in the first round of a playoff if we luck out with the schedule, but this is not the path to becoming an elite program. We seem to go after highly ranked quarterbacks and edge rushers, only to jump on whoever is willing to have us like it’s last call at the bar for the rest of the roster.
Click to expand...
As a counter to your argument, we had one of the best D-lines in the country last year. We have two 5* OT on the current roster. We have signed a bevy of highly-rated receivers the last few years. We've had a stable of really good RB's. We've recruited very well at TE. We've gotten some really good LB's. We got the the top DB in the portal last year. Gibson and Carter are secondary guys that would start for almost any team in the country. Are we still deficient in recruiting to OSU, UGA, TX, and Bama. Yes. But it's not due to focusing only on QB and Edge, which, BTW, are the two most impactful positions in football.
 
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#68
#68
Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va said:
Not sure where you are getting your numbers, but a crosscheck with Google says that 7% were 5*s, 31% were 4*s, and 46% were 3*s.

Its a numbers game because 4&5*s are more likely to make it, but they make up a smaller fraction of the population (only 1% of recruits are 5*s).

So yes, lots of top recruits make it to the NFL, but the majority of the league is 3 and lower.
Click to expand...
I have posted a link to debunk your comment. There are several sites that say the vast majority of NFL ROSTERS are made up of 4 and 5 star recruits.
 
#69
#69
Danl said:
I read the linked article and couldn't find anything that states that former 4/5 stars make up any particular range of percentages of NFL rosters. Maybe you have another link that does?

Here's the questions I would like to see answered:

Of the 1,696 opening day NFL players (28 teams x 53 players each), how many were ...
5 stars?
4 stars?
3 stars?
2 stars?
No rating at time of draft?

I can't seem to find that data. Maybe some of you can.
Click to expand...
I GUESS YOU CAN'T READ. The below is in the article link I posted.

The four-stars, there were 311. Seventy-three of them were drafted. This is based on 247Sports. That's 23.5%. The five-stars, there were 30, and 19 were drafted. That's 62.3%. So, pretty significant there.

Those two percentages total 85.8%. Most experts would say that of all stars drafted. The majority of them to remain on rosters would be 4 and 5 stars which would increase the percentage. If you don't believe any of the experts, I suggest you get the names of all starters last year and research their star rating coming out of high school. I doubt you find more than 10% that were 1 star, 2 star, 3 star, or unranked.
 
#71
#71
89 VOLS grad said:
I GUESS YOU CAN'T READ. The below is in the article link I posted.

The four-stars, there were 311. Seventy-three of them were drafted. This is based on 247Sports. That's 23.5%. The five-stars, there were 30, and 19 were drafted. That's 62.3%. So, pretty significant there.

Those two percentages total 85.8%. Most experts would say that of all stars drafted. The majority of them to remain on rosters would be 4 and 5 stars which would increase the percentage. If you don't believe any of the experts, I suggest you get the names of all starters last year and research their star rating coming out of high school. I doubt you find more than 10% that were 1 star, 2 star, 3 star, or unranked.
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I think you're struggling with the math. There were 259 recruits drafted to the NFL in the 2016/2017 draft, which is the year quoted by your article. If, of that 259, only 73 were 4-stars and only 19 were 5-stars, per your article, then.... 73 + 19 = 92. And 92/259 = .35521 or about 35% of those drafted were 4 or 5 star recruits. I'm pretty sure there are more 3-star and lower rated recruits drafted every year than there are 4/5 star recruits.
I would like to see links you referenced that state current NFL rosters are composed of mostly 4/5 star recruits.
 
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#72
#72
chadslaughter said:
the bit dated but does answer a fee questions
lastwordonsports.com

What Do Those Star Ratings Mean?

When discussing recruits, we often hear that star ratings mean very little. We analyze the question: what do those star ratings mean exactly?
lastwordonsports.com
Click to expand...
Thanks for the link. The only answers I think that article puts forth is the same data that we've seen before. i.e. for such and such year or over this particular range of years, 4 and 5 stars are far more likely to be drafted. I think we all know that.

I find it very interesting that there aren't many/several/some/any tally of exactly how many of each star rank are currently in the NFL. Could it be because the data might show that the recruiting services are wrong about their ratings a high percentage of the time? For instance, a recent draft of 259 NFL rookies consisted of slightly less than 50% 4/5 star recruits. Given that there are about 350 blue chip (35 5-star and 325 4-star) recruits per cycle, that seems like a very poor hit rate for the recruiting services.
 
#73
#73
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
Do you think that the way Heupel is building a roster is a remotely possible way to contending for championships? Because I don’t. We had the worst Transfer Class in Power Conference football and aren’t cracking the top 10 in high school guys, despite placing much more recruiting focus on the high school ranks than every other Power Conference team.
Click to expand...
Can't really argue this. He won big with Frost's guys at UCF. He had his peak here....so far....with Pruitt guys. Folks go on and on about how these 3 star guys will get their 4th stars soon. Problem for me isn't the stars per se. It's his history with coaching hires at some spots and the evals. We all know the positions in question, but it's the QB position that has me scratching my head. If Heupel were an OL or DB in college, I could understand it, but if there's one spot he should nail the eval it's at QB. Begs the question....is it the eval or the coaching? Guess it doesn't matter because the buck stops with Heupel regardless.

This will be a very telling season for Heupel in my eyes. This is his chosen staff and roster now. It was his decision to do very little in the portal so he's either lazy or he's confident in his staff and their recruiting. If he doesn't make hay with this schedule, he's gonna find things very, very difficult once the scheduling worm turns against us and we get that UF schedule in the future. Next 2 years will tell the tale on Heupel, and based on history, I think I know how this story plays out.
 
#74
#74
AI summary (ChatGPT):
Here’s a summary of the estimated high school recruiting backgrounds of NFL players during the 2024–2025 season, based on recent draft data:


Recruit RatingApproximate % of NFL PlayersNotes
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Five-star~7–8%Most elite recruits; ~60% make it to NFL via draft
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Four-star~30–32%Strong contributors; ~31% of recent draftees
⭐⭐⭐ Three-star~45–47%Largest group; ~46% of NFL draft picks
⭐⭐ or Unranked~15–18%Underrated or late bloomers


Key Insight:
While five-star recruits are the most talented on paper, the majority of NFL players actually come from the three- and four-star ranks, proving that long-term development often matters more than early hype.
 
#75
#75
Bearkat_Vol said:
AI summary (ChatGPT):
Here’s a summary of the estimated high school recruiting backgrounds of NFL players during the 2024–2025 season, based on recent draft data:


Recruit RatingApproximate % of NFL PlayersNotes
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Five-star~7–8%Most elite recruits; ~60% make it to NFL via draft
⭐⭐⭐⭐ Four-star~30–32%Strong contributors; ~31% of recent draftees
⭐⭐⭐ Three-star~45–47%Largest group; ~46% of NFL draft picks
⭐⭐ or Unranked~15–18%Underrated or late bloomers


Key Insight:
While five-star recruits are the most talented on paper, the majority of NFL players actually come from the three- and four-star ranks, proving that long-term development often matters more than early hype.
Click to expand...
I have no doubt that this is accurate. But take into account the volume of 5 stars and 4 stars per cycle and it's pretty clear that stars matter. 5 stars may only make up 7-8% in the NFL but they are a vanishingly small number coming out of high school. Probably less than .25%. I would guess that 4 star players are probably no more than 1% of the high school players. So for them to be 40% +/- of the NFL actually strengthens the argument for "stars matter". I would rather see a list showing % of the total players at each star level relative to how many actually make it to the NFL. If there's 500 3 star players in the 2020 recruiting cycle, how many made it to the NFL? 4%? 20%?
 
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