5 commits in 5 days........FB recruiting on fire

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

I have posted a link to debunk your comment. There are several sites that say the vast majority of NFL ROSTERS are made up of 4 and 5 star recruits.

That is not true. The majority is still 3*s because there are only a few 5*s available each draft. In addition, there are more 3*s taken than 4 and 5 every single year.

The only data you have posted is about draft status, which shows more 3*s than 4 or 5.

Now if you are a 4 or 5 then you have a higher chance, but there are still plenty of 3*s. The majority of the league is 3*s.

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

AI summary (ChatGPT):
Here’s a summary of the estimated high school recruiting backgrounds of NFL players during the 2024–2025 season, based on recent draft data:

Recruit Rating	Approximate % of NFL Players	Notes
Five-star	~7–8%	Most elite recruits; ~60% make it to NFL via draft
Four-star	~30–32%	Strong contributors; ~31% of recent draftees
Three-star	~45–47%	Largest group; ~46% of NFL draft picks
or Unranked	~15–18%	Underrated or late bloomers

Key Insight:
While five-star recruits are the most talented on paper, the majority of NFL players actually come from the three- and four-star ranks, proving that long-term development often matters more than early hype.

Thank you for posting this. 89 Vol is not understanding that the chance to be drafted is not the same as the actual number of players taken from each category. Nobody is disputing the value of 4 and 5*s, but the working force of the NFL is made up of 3*s.

The way the stars are structured is that there are only roughly 32 5*s in a class. Interesting since that is the same number of NFL teams. It fluctuates a little bit year by year, but the total is structured to where it is close to the number of first round draft picks.

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

Do you think that the way Heupel is building a roster is a remotely possible way to contending for championships? Because I don’t. We had the worst Transfer Class in Power Conference football and aren’t cracking the top 10 in high school guys, despite placing much more recruiting focus on the high school ranks than every other Power Conference team.

We have been right around 10 the last few years for recruiting rankings. Those rankings are also tricky to analyze, because there is a very thin line between each of the teams starting around 5 through rank 17ish. Starting at 5 up through 1, then difference is much higher. We will probably never hit a top 5 class, meaning it is unlikely we ever win a Natty.

 

[Danl]

I am not trying to argue one way or another for "do stars matter?". I am questioning how well the professional rating services do their job of assigning stars to recruits.

It seems to me that they (the rating services) have about three or four years to "evaluate" each year's class of incoming high school recruits. Currently their are about 259 NFL draftees per year. Their allocation of 5 star recruits is supposed to mirror the first round of the NFL draft of 32 draftees. That leaves about 227 draft positions in rounds 2 thru 7. The services assign roughly 350 4 stars per cycle, enough to cover all remaining draft positions plus about 120. So you would think that with a pre-allocated 120 misses baked in, that the rating services would completely cover the NFL draft of 259 players with their roughly 380 projected 4/5 star draftees. But they don't even come close. Most of the draftees in each cycle are not 4/5 star recruits, but come from the 3 star and lower recruits. Also, you would think that all or nearly all of the only 32 5 star recruits would be drafted each cycle. Sure, some would slide out of the first round to a lower round, but surely almost all of the cream of the cream of the cream of the crop would be drafted somewhere. But no, usually only about 20 of the 32 (less than two-thirds) of the most elite of the elite are drafted at all.

So, between missing so badly (less than 2 out of 3) every year on the most prized, most evaluated, most sought after recruits and being so far off the mark on every year the overall draft (about 50% hit rate) why do we put so much value into these services ratings?

Also, I think it stinks that the rating services don't have a complete tally of their historical results versus their predictions. Try to find that data anywhere on the net. I'd really like to see it.

 

[ftsandersvol]

only to jump on whoever is willing to have us like it’s last call at the bar

You make that sound like that's a bad thing.