5-7 and going Bowling

#51
#51
Put to bed any thought of bowling this year.

Here's the math:

* There are 40 bowls this year (plus the NC game).
* That means 80 teams will go bowling.
* As of today, 70 teams are bowl eligible, with 6+ wins.
* That leaves 10 spots open.
* There are 19 teams with 5 wins currently. Of the 19, 8 are ahead of us in APR, so it doesn't matter if they win a game or not, they're in before us (Duke, Minnesota, Ga Tech, MTSU, Utah, Indiana, Cal, and Buffalo).
* That leaves 2 spots open.
* Of the remaining 11 teams with 5 wins right now, one would expect about half to win their final game and get to 6 wins, securing those last two bowl spots.
[Assume best possible case: not a single one of those 11 teams gets a 6th win. Not a single one. They all end up 5-7, and all have a lower APR than the Vols].​
* There are 17 teams with 4 wins currently, including the Vols...8 of the 17 have higher APRs than us. One would expect about half of those 8 to win their final game, and sit ahead of us in the 5-win APR eligible pool.
[Assume best possible case: not a single one of those 8 teams gets a 5th win. But we do, by beating Vandy. We alone become APR-bowl eligible, among this current 4-win group.]​
* So still 2 bowl spots open, and under these precise conditions, the Vols are in a bowl. By the skin of our teeth.

But really...how likely is this?

Observation A: I'm not energetic enough to check the slate of games this weekend to see how many pit one 5-6 or 4-7 team against another, but I'd be willing to bet there are at least one or two games like that. In which case, someone HAS to win, and that takes up one or both of the remaining bowl spots.

Observation B: Even if none of them play each other there is no way on the planet that all 11+8 = 19 teams who have to lose to open the path for us will lose. No way. Odds are roughly 500,000 to 1.

Conclusion: Tennessee is not going bowling in 2017, even if we beat Vandy. Mathematical certainty.
 
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#52
#52
Just to piggy-back on JP's math (and make a couple of corrections):

VFL-82-JP said:
* There are 40 bowls this year (plus the NC game).
* That means 80 teams will go bowling.
Click to expand...

There are actually 39 bowls this year, since the Poinsettia Bowl shut down. So only 78 teams will go bowling.

* As of today, 70 teams are bowl eligible, with 6+ wins.
* That leaves 10 spots open.
Click to expand...

Only 8 spots remain open.

There are 4 games between 5-win teams this weekend (UCLA vs Cal, Colorado vs Utah, Indiana vs Purdue, Old Dominion vs MTSU). The winner of each of these games will become bowl-eligible.

So, in reality, only 4 spots remain open.

Of the teams sitting currently sitting at 5 wins, the following are ranked above Tennessee in APR:

Duke, Minnesota, Georgia Tech, MTSU*, Utah*, Indiana*, Cal*, Buffalo.

MTSU, Utah, Indiana, and Cal are on both lists. So, even if we assume that everything works out in UT's favor, and the teams that are behind UT in APR (UCLA, Colorado, Purdue, and ODU) all lose, it won't matter, because Duke, Minnesota, GT, and Buffalo would be guaranteed to get the 4 remaining bowl invites before UT.

Conclusion: Tennessee is not going bowling in 2017, even if we beat Vandy. Mathematical certainty.
Click to expand...

Yup.
 
#55
#55
We have no business being in a bowl game. We have not played well enough to deserve a bowl and it would cheapen the entire process and be joke.
 
#56
#56
78 spots available (39 bowls), 71 teams already qualified, 21 more could qualify this weekend
 
#57
#57
As much as I love UT, I don’t ever want us to go to a bowl at 5-7. If you have a losing record, you shouldn’t be playing in a bowl game. Having all these random sponsors like “The Aldi Food Market Bowl” has taken the excitement out of it.
 
#61
#61
NEVolFan said:
Should not go to a bowl game... but times have changed and if there is a buck to be made, they will give UT a bowl game. Especially considering that the Vol fans travel and spend with the best.
Click to expand...

Every team loses money on any bowl they attend.
 
#62
#62
If all the 5-7 teams with a higher APR than us declined the bowl to put an end to a sorry season, then we accept and go beat the dog snot out of somebody, and end the year with a two game win streak.

If you haven't heard. I might could go.

Win out.
 
#63
#63
bamawriter said:
Just to piggy-back on JP's math (and make a couple of corrections):

There are actually 39 bowls this year, since the Poinsettia Bowl shut down. So only 78 teams will go bowling.

...it won't matter, because Duke, Minnesota, GT, and Buffalo would be guaranteed to get the 4 remaining bowl invites before UT.

Yup.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the corrections. Was sure I counted 40...but maybe ESPN snuck an FCS bowl into the list. I do remember there was a "trial balloon" FCS bowl last winter.

So at 39 bowls, the logic chain is much simpler than I outlined, and even simpler than you did. It goes like this:

* There are 39 bowls this year (plus the NC game).
* That means 78 teams will go bowling.
* As of today, 70 teams are bowl eligible, with 6+ wins.
* That leaves 8 spots open.
* There are 19 teams with 5 wins currently. Of the 19, 8 are ahead of us in APR, so it doesn't matter if they win a game or not, they're in before us (Duke, Minnesota, Ga Tech, MTSU, Utah, Indiana, Cal, and Buffalo).
* That leaves 0 spots open.

Anyway, yep, it ain't happening. Our season ends this coming Saturday, win or lose. Here's hoping for a win, and staying in the elite "never lost 8" club.

Go Vols!
 
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#64
#64
VFL-82-JP said:
Thanks for the corrections. Was sure I counted 40...but maybe ESPN snuck an FCS bowl into the list. I do remember there was a "trial balloon" FCS bowl last winter.

So at 39 bowls, the logic chain is much simpler than I outlined, and even simpler than you did. It goes like this:

* There are 39 bowls this year (plus the NC game).
* That means 78 teams will go bowling.
* As of today, 70 teams are bowl eligible, with 6+ wins.
* That leaves 8 spots open.
* There are 19 teams with 5 wins currently. Of the 19, 8 are ahead of us in APR, so it doesn't matter if they win a game or not, they're in before us (Duke, Minnesota, Ga Tech, MTSU, Utah, Indiana, Cal, and Buffalo).
* That leaves 0 spots open.

Anyway, yep, it ain't happening. Our season ends this coming Saturday, win or lose. Here's hoping for a win, and staying in the elite "never lost 8" club.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

SO YOURE SAYING WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE:rock::eek:lol:
 
#66
#66
VFL-82-JP said:
So at 39 bowls, the logic chain is much simpler than I outlined, and even simpler than you did. It goes like this:

* There are 39 bowls this year (plus the NC game).
* That means 78 teams will go bowling.
* As of today, 70 teams are bowl eligible, with 6+ wins.
* That leaves 8 spots open.
* There are 19 teams with 5 wins currently. Of the 19, 8 are ahead of us in APR, so it doesn't matter if they win a game or not, they're in before us (Duke, Minnesota, Ga Tech, MTSU, Utah, Indiana, Cal, and Buffalo).
* That leaves 0 spots open.

Anyway, yep, it ain't happening. Our season ends this coming Saturday, win or lose. Here's hoping for a win, and staying in the elite "never lost 8" club.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

Correct. And yeah, the logic is simpler than I presented. I just wanted to cover the scenario that worked in UT's favor to the greatest extent possible, because even that scenario doesn't produce a bowl game.
 
#67
#67
You know it's been a long disappointing season. I think a break from football could actually be a blessing in disguise.
 
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#69
#69
goldvol said:
Yes, it sucks to be in this position. There's not a single one of us that thinks bowling at 5-7 is an honor. But, with a new coach coming in, we could sure use the practice and orientation.

and yes, if we beat Vandy, there are bowls that will want our storied program.

Are we going bowling and should we go bowling?
Who's the best potential match up?
Click to expand...

It’s not how it works. It's a straight selection list based on APR of all FBS teams that finished with a 5-7 record (instead of an eligible pool that a bowl can just choose a 5-7 team from a well).

And the APR scores of teams that could possibly finish at 5-7 (or 5-6):

Air Force (4-7 currently, still play: Utah St) - 995

Duke (5-6 currently, still play: @Wake) - 992

Minnesota (5-6 currently, still play: @Wisc) - 992

Vanderbilt (4-7 currently, still play: @UT) - 992

Maryland (4-7 currently, still play: PennSt) - 984

Georgia Tech (5-5 currently, still play: UGA) - 983

MTSU (5-6 currently, still play: Old Dominion) - 983

Utah (5-6 currently, still play: Colorado) - 983

Indiana (5-6 currently, still play: @Purdue) - 982

Florida (4-6 currently, still play: FSU) - 980

Cal (5-6 currently, still play: @UCLA) - 978

Buffalo (5-6 currently, still play: Ohio) - 977

Nebraska (4-7 currently, still play: Iowa) - 977

Miami (OH) (4-7 currently, still play: @BallSt) - 976

Pitt (4-7 currently, still play: Miami) - 975

Rutgers (4-7 currently, still play: MichSt) - 973

UT (4-7 currently, still play: Vandy) - 972
 
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#70
#70
Iam4utalways said:
If all the 5-7 teams with a higher APR than us declined the bowl to put an end to a sorry season, then we accept and go beat the dog snot out of somebody, and end the year with a two game win streak.

If you haven't heard. I might could go.

Win out.
Click to expand...

Good luck on 15 schools all choosing to decline the open bowl bid.
 
#75
#75
VFL-82-JP said:
Thanks for the corrections. Was sure I counted 40...but maybe ESPN snuck an FCS bowl into the list. I do remember there was a "trial balloon" FCS bowl last winter.

So at 39 bowls, the logic chain is much simpler than I outlined, and even simpler than you did. It goes like this:

* There are 39 bowls this year (plus the NC game).
* That means 78 teams will go bowling.
* As of today, 70 teams are bowl eligible, with 6+ wins.
* That leaves 8 spots open.
* There are 19 teams with 5 wins currently. Of the 19, 8 are ahead of us in APR, so it doesn't matter if they win a game or not, they're in before us (Duke, Minnesota, Ga Tech, MTSU, Utah, Indiana, Cal, and Buffalo).
* That leaves 0 spots open.

Anyway, yep, it ain't happening. Our season ends this coming Saturday, win or lose. Here's hoping for a win, and staying in the elite "never lost 8" club.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

That number of bowl eligible teams is guaranteed to increase by 4 this weekend, also. On Friday, Cal (5-6) plays UCLA (5-6), and on Saturday, Colorado (5-6) plays Utah (5-6)...not to also mention Indiana-Purdue and MTSU-Old Dominion are also bowl-eligibility games.
 
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