3 Star Ranked Players Who Developed To Be 1st, 2nd 3rd Rounders?

#11

themicah85

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#11
I said "wild stab"
I'd still like to figure out the numbers......it would be close

tons of bust 5* because some (said some so nobody throws names at me) are coddled little babies.

Yea percentage wise, no way. Only because there are probably 1000+ 3 stars each cycle and about 25-30 5 stars. I mean it can certainly happen but there are alot of variables and alot of luck that have to fall into place. If you get a 3 star like cam sutton that had good offers from everyone its not that shocking. If you look at someone like Tony Romo that played ball at Eastern Illinois its much more shocking that he made it to the NFL. I dont know if the ranking system even existed then but if you compare it to the modern day recruits that OVC players get 3 star is actually probably a pretty generous rating.
 
#13

peaygolf

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#13
Yea percentage wise, no way. Only because there are probably 1000+ 3 stars each cycle and about 25-30 5 stars. I mean it can certainly happen but there are alot of variables and alot of luck that have to fall into place. If you get a 3 star like cam sutton that had good offers from everyone its not that shocking. If you look at someone like Tony Romo that played ball at Eastern Illinois its much more shocking that he made it to the NFL. I dont know if the ranking system even existed then but if you compare it to the modern day recruits that OVC players get 3 star is actually probably a pretty generous rating.
Probably/definitely right.......... I guess I just notice the 5* flame-outs more.
 
#14

Otis1105

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#14
I said "wild stab"
I'd still like to figure out the numbers......it would be close

tons of bust 5* because some (said some so nobody throws names at me) are coddled little babies.
It’s really not close at all. 60% or so of 5 stars get drafted, like 10% of 3 stars. I just looked and got tired of scrolling but on 247 I got to prospect number 1250 and stopped scrolling. The first 3 star was #364. So I scrolled 890 prospects that were all 3 star. Let’s assume I stopped at the perfect time and it was the last 3 star! There are 224 picks in each draft. Let’s just say fifteen 5* are drafted leaving 209 picks. And NO 4 stars are drafted. Even in that very conservative set. Five stars are at 50% and 3 stars are at 23%. And that’s assuming no four stars to.
 
#17

sjt18

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#17
% wise? Most definitely not. Raw numbers yes, only because there’s way more 3*s than 5*s
Considering that many if not most of the NFL's best players do not come from the first day of the draft... it is likely that a pretty high percentage of the 3* draft picks are included.

Talent is talent. Talent is talent when the recruiting sites either notice it or recognize that Saban has noticed it. Talent is talent when a guy plays in obscurity on an 8 man team somewhere in western Nebraska. The idea isn't that the recruiting sites are unreasonably inaccurate with the guys they find and rate highly. The point is that for every player they find and rate highly... they miss one or two through no fault of their own.

Sometimes though as in the case of Cam Sutton... they just whiff. He played like a 5* talent from the moment he stepped on campus.
 
#18

LSU-SIU

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#18
I remember a few years ago, I ran the numbers for LSU players... percentage wise the 3 stars usually outperform the 5 stars.

- Jacob Hester 2-star Rivals (3rd round)
- Tyson Jackson 3-star Rivals (3rd overall pick 1st round)
- Brandon LaFell 3-star (3rd round)
- Kelvin Sheppard 3-star (3rd round)
- Bennie Logan 3-star (3rd round)
- Deion Jones 3-star (2nd round)
- Duke Riley 3-star (3rd round)
- DJ Clark 3-star (2nd round)
- Lloyd Cushenberry 2-star (3rd round)
- C. Edwards-Helaire 3-star (1st round/32 pick)
- Justin Jefferson 2-star (1st round/22 pick)

The percentage is much greater for the 2-stars that have panned out over 5-star guys at LSU. It depends on the evaluation. Basically, a guy like Cushenberry and Jefferson wouldn't even have a rating if LSU wouldn't have offered. Not sure those guys would have even gotten a commit-able offers.

Stars mean something, but sometimes they don't mean anything. I wouldn't get caught up in star glazing, although to be competitive at a high level... the school is going to have to average out top 10-15 for a 3-4 years.
 
#23

rcrrcr

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#23
I did research a while back. During the last 10 years of the Fulmer era. I decided a successful player was one who started at least one year and played a lot in two years and did not get kicked off the team for breaking team rules. five star success 42%. four star success 47%. three star success 42%. two and below star success was around 60%. The reason the two star percentage was so high is did not sign many and most were punters who were good. This was only studying Tennessee's signings classes. Several 5 stars would have been considered very successful but were kicked off the team and were an embarrassment to the university. Also this does not consider All SEC and All American Players. I am sure more 5 star high school player got those honors but did not investigate that issue.
 
#24

sjt18

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#24
The study has been done before. 5* are far more likely to be drafted.
Not the question. IIRC, about 60% of 5* guys will be drafted. Maybe more. That's good. But if you are depending on the recruiting sites as much as many do then you have to face the reality that over half of the NFL draft will be made up of guys who weren't given 4/5*.

But my question is how many of each group go on to have successful or even elite careers. Arian Foster had pretty good success after being a 3* and undrafted. The recruiting sites are reasonably accurate with the guys they choose to give 4/5* to. I've never disputed that even though they have a lot of misses in that group.... and UT has had a knack for finding the ones they were wrong about. My consistent point is that in the sea of 3* players... there are as many who end up "deserving" 5* as there are 5* awarded in any given year. Same or maybe more so with 4*,.
 

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