3 Star Ranked Players Who Developed To Be 1st, 2nd 3rd Rounders?

#29

Otis1105

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#29
I remember a few years ago, I ran the numbers for LSU players... percentage wise the 3 stars usually outperform the 5 stars.

- Jacob Hester 2-star Rivals (3rd round)
- Tyson Jackson 3-star Rivals (3rd overall pick 1st round)
- Brandon LaFell 3-star (3rd round)
- Kelvin Sheppard 3-star (3rd round)
- Bennie Logan 3-star (3rd round)
- Deion Jones 3-star (2nd round)
- Duke Riley 3-star (3rd round)
- DJ Clark 3-star (2nd round)
- Lloyd Cushenberry 2-star (3rd round)
- C. Edwards-Helaire 3-star (1st round/32 pick)
- Justin Jefferson 2-star (1st round/22 pick)

The percentage is much greater for the 2-stars that have panned out over 5-star guys at LSU. It depends on the evaluation. Basically, a guy like Cushenberry and Jefferson wouldn't even have a rating if LSU wouldn't have offered. Not sure those guys would have even gotten a commit-able offers.

Stars mean something, but sometimes they don't mean anything. I wouldn't get caught up in star glazing, although to be competitive at a high level... the school is going to have to average out top 10-15 for a 3-4 years.
You picked 11 players over a 18 year time span to prove a point? Yes, if you only take 2 two stars in 18 years and they hit the percentage is higher. But, bowling green is where they are and bama is where they are because of the type of talent they get.
 
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#31

LSU-SIU

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#31
You picked 11 players over a 18 year time span to prove a point? Yes, if you only take 2 two stars in 18 years and they hit the percentage is higher. But, bowling green is where they are and bama is where they are because of the type of talent they get.
Absolutely, that is basically what I said. Although some teams might have success with 2-stars, generally speaking if you're not constantly in the top 10-15 over a length of time... chances are you won't be in the top. Stars don't mean anything but in the end they do, individual player evaluation is important to find the players in the rough. As mentioned by someone else, many times the 2-stars are kickers, punters or long snappers. I've really only seen one 2-star that didn't contribute at LSU in like the last 17 years, but plenty of 5-stars. Evaluation is important. I would say LSU has been nearly perfect (meaning significant contributions( on two stars, of course, there is usually only 1-2 a year. Of course, if all LSU had done is pick two stars because they are two stars... that ain't going to work.
 
#36

VolForLife83

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#36
Just a wild stab in the dark.............but I'd be willing to place a decent wager that % wise, more 3* pan out than 5*
You'd think so, considering the majority of division 1 athletes are rated 3*, but by contrast, there are thousands of 3*s each year with only a very small amount being rated a 5*. Only 34 footbal players were rated 5* for 2021 and 300+ 4* stars.


According to a study by bleacher report (published in 2014)

"We've also learned that 52 percent of 5-star players get drafted and that 75 percent of those draftees are retained"


People can knock the rating system all they want and try to justify our rankings, but look at the big boys of football for reference. You'll have a few teams do better than their recruiting rankings, but it's typically the top classes having success on the field..


Edited to say. Yall remember the success we seen in 2016? Well that had a lot to do with recruiting. In 2014 we had the #7 rated class and 2015 we had the #4 class. Granted most of our success came from Dobbs, but that year we were loaded with talent that pushed through bad coaching. Those classes fell apart and so did the results on the field.
 
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#37

RTE

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#37
Russell Wilson was a 2 star before starring at NC State and Wisconsin. Drafted in 2nd round.
Also, Blake Bortles was either unranked or a 2 star and drafted in 1st round, 3rd overall.
Breshad Perriman was a 2 star wr out of Lithonia, Ga, but drafted in 1st round by Ravens. It didn't hurt that he ran 3 unofficial 40 yard dashes between 4.15 -4.27, but officially credited with 4.22.
 
#39

TheDirector

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#39
I remember a few years ago, I ran the numbers for LSU players... percentage wise the 3 stars usually outperform the 5 stars.

- Justin Jefferson 2-star (1st round/22 pick)

The percentage is much greater for the 2-stars that have panned out over 5-star guys at LSU. It depends on the evaluation. Basically, a guy like Cushenberry and Jefferson wouldn't even have a rating if LSU wouldn't have offered. Not sure those guys would have even gotten a commit-able offers.

Stars mean something, but sometimes they don't mean anything. I wouldn't get caught up in star glazing, although to be competitive at a high level... the school is going to have to average out top 10-15 for a 3-4 years.
Did not realize the Jefferson was a 2 star. Found this article. Good read about him going from a zero star recruit who didn't even qualify until after camp had started and then became a first round pick.
How Justin Jefferson went from zero-star recruit to Vikings' first-round pick
 
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#40

RAVOL

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#40
The problem with arguments over star ratings is that many only look at star rating and not the upside of player. All 2 star 3 star kids in NFL all had the Athletic skill the feet and bend and great hips but needed time to develop into really good football player. And Last is heart to stick to the plan. There are many 2 star and 3 star that have the heart but do not have the other traits to make it. So out of are 3 star kids committed how many have the upside to develop to NFL Player because they have the Heart as well. Sampson White Foley and Clipper fit the argument they have the abilities you look for and if they have the heart and stay healthy can play one day in NFL. Time only tells the story. Oh I too look forward to 5 stars that have those qualities but are further ahead in development to help a team quicker achieve success. "IN CHRIST Alone"
 
#42

VolForLife83

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#42

6.1 — 5-star/Franchise Player:
considered one of the elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation’s top 30-35 players overall, a potential first-team All American candidate and a player deemed to have first round NFL potential.

6.0-5.8 — 4-star/All American Candidate: considered one of the next-tier elite prospects in the country, generally among the nation’s top 300-325 prospects overall, a national All American candidate and a player deemed to have first to third round NFL potential

5.7-5.5 — 3-star/All Region Selection: considered among the region’s top prospects and generally among the nation’s top 800-850 prospects overall, a potential All-Conference candidate and a player deemed to have mid to low-end pro potential and ability to impact at the college level.

5.2-5.4 — 2-star/Low End FBS prospect: considered a mid-major prospect with limited pro potential and expected to contribute 1-2 years at a high level maximum or often as a role player.
 
#43

Sarms58

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#43
13 of 32 NFL First Round Draft picks in the 2021 draft were 3 star or below recruits.
Yea, about 60% of the first round picks were 4&5 star guys and 40% were 3 star and below. Those ratings not only have a good bit of subjectivity but also reflect how well developed a kid is while in HS. Sometimes those 4 and 5 star kids have already been coached up and don’t have the upside of a less developed kid. I know we’ve had our share of busts from kids who were on everyone’s radar from the time they were in middle school - they just never got much better than what they were in HS.
 
#44

Sarms58

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#44
Not the question. IIRC, about 60% of 5* guys will be drafted. Maybe more. That's good. But if you are depending on the recruiting sites as much as many do then you have to face the reality that over half of the NFL draft will be made up of guys who weren't given 4/5*.

But my question is how many of each group go on to have successful or even elite careers. Arian Foster had pretty good success after being a 3* and undrafted. The recruiting sites are reasonably accurate with the guys they choose to give 4/5* to. I've never disputed that even though they have a lot of misses in that group.... and UT has had a knack for finding the ones they were wrong about. My consistent point is that in the sea of 3* players... there are as many who end up "deserving" 5* as there are 5* awarded in any given year. Same or maybe more so with 4*,.
Foster still makes me wonder about our RB coach at that time…supposedly the pro coach’s changed his lean and how he held the ball and he went from a decent but fumble prone RB to an NFL all pro…
 
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#45

sjt18

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#45
For the recruiting sites to warrant the faith that some put in them.... they'd have to double the number of 4/5* they give. Then we would have a true measure of their accuracy. I'm not suggesting that's practical... just that the faith isn't justified.
 
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#46

cobbwebb0710

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#46
Considering that many if not most of the NFL's best players do not come from the first day of the draft... it is likely that a pretty high percentage of the 3* draft picks are included.

Talent is talent. Talent is talent when the recruiting sites either notice it or recognize that Saban has noticed it. Talent is talent when a guy plays in obscurity on an 8 man team somewhere in western Nebraska. The idea isn't that the recruiting sites are unreasonably inaccurate with the guys they find and rate highly. The point is that for every player they find and rate highly... they miss one or two through no fault of their own.

Sometimes though as in the case of Cam Sutton... they just whiff. He played like a 5* talent from the moment he stepped on campus.
Something the recruiting gurus will never be able to measure...dedication, work ethic, heart and want to.
I mean is there really that big of a difference in a WR that runs a 4.4 and 4.7? Or one that can bench 225 15 times versus one who can do it 16 times?
I think once you get to the D1 level, you can throw the measurements out the window for the most part because they are all gifted athletically. IMO(which doesn’t mean much) the traits I listed earlier and what’s between the ears, separates the great from the good from the average.
GBO!!
 
#47

bamawriter

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#47
Something the recruiting gurus will never be able to measure...dedication, work ethic, heart and want to.
I mean is there really that big of a difference in a WR that runs a 4.4 and 4.7? Or one that can bench 225 15 times versus one who can do it 16 times?
I think once you get to the D1 level, you can throw the measurements out the window for the most part because they are all gifted athletically. IMO(which doesn’t mean much) the traits I listed earlier and what’s between the ears, separates the great from the good from the average.
GBO!!
Scouts may not care that much about 1 rep, but there is a massive difference between a receiver that runs a 4.4. and one that runs a 4.7.
 
#49

Devo182

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#49
It’s really not close at all. 60% or so of 5 stars get drafted, like 10% of 3 stars. I just looked and got tired of scrolling but on 247 I got to prospect number 1250 and stopped scrolling. The first 3 star was #364. So I scrolled 890 prospects that were all 3 star. Let’s assume I stopped at the perfect time and it was the last 3 star! There are 224 picks in each draft. Let’s just say fifteen 5* are drafted leaving 209 picks. And NO 4 stars are drafted. Even in that very conservative set. Five stars are at 50% and 3 stars are at 23%. And that’s assuming no four stars to.
Yes. The general rule of thumb I've seen is 5*s are about 2.5x more likely to be drafted than 4*s and 7x that of 3*s. Huuuge gap. The issue is people don't always respect the fact that 40-50% of 5*s still won't make it...they think it's a surefire thing. And as UT fans...that's probably closer to what we've seen unfortunately...
 

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