2026 Official Seed Watch List Thread

#301
#301
bleedingTNorange said:
Without looking I’m guessing Auburn has better wins
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Auburn's best wins
St. John's on neutral court
Arkansas at home
Florida on the road
Kentucky at home

A&M's best wins
Georgia on the road
Texas on the road
Auburn on the road
Kentucky at home

Yeah seems like when talking about Auburn those 4 wins (and the one at Florida specifically) is the entire debate. Never mind losing to Ole Miss at home, at Miss State or directly to A&M at home. And the 11 Quad 1 losses they took...
 
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#303
#303
bleedingTNorange said:
How did you come to that conclusion?
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Gonzaga is the only team I see in the top 4 seed lines that would prefer Portland. If they remain a 4 seed, it's almost certain they will be placed there. So if we're a 5 seed matched with Gonzaga as the 4, where else would it be?
 
#304
#304
wtmvol said:
Gonzaga is the only team I see in the top 4 seed lines that would prefer Portland. If they remain a 4 seed, it's almost certain they will be placed there. So if we're a 5 seed matched with Gonzaga as the 4, where else would it be?
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Yea that makes sense, hadn’t looked at the locations for this year, there’s not much out this way. If they fall out of that 4 seed line it would change some things, but yea, as a 4 seed Portland seems likely.
 
#305
#305
MoCo_Vol said:
What baffles me...

Texas A&M who is 20-10 and 10-7 in the SEC is on the same "work to do" line for seeding as 16-14 Auburn who is 7-10 in the SEC.
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Auburn had a more impressive OOC and has some solid Q1 wins. That said, I don't think they're good.
 
#307
#307
TennesseeFan07 said:
Auburn had a more impressive OOC and has some solid Q1 wins. That said, I don't think they're good.
Click to expand...

One perk to a corrupt daddy with favors to call in, you take the 2nd most FTs of any team in the country. They'd have another 4 losses if not for the ridiculous whistle advantage they get.

30 FTAs to 20 against South Carolina, win by 4
39 FTAs to 23 against Texas, win by 6
39 FTAs to 15 against Ole Miss, win by 12
38 FTAs to 9 against Bethune-Cookman, win by 5 in OT
37 FTAs to 20 against Chattanooga, win by 14

They've gotten bailed out so much by zebras this season...I'm positive Bruce knows some **** on certain officials.
 
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#308
#308
kckempf said:
I think the 3 - 5 line is pretty fluid. EvanMiya and BartTorvik have us at 12, KenPom has us at 13, and NET has us down at 20.
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I think Iowa State is pretty safely on the 3 line, if Purdue wins tonight they’ll join them…outside of that the last two 3 seed spots seems fluid to me, same for the 4 & 5 lines. Essentially top 10 feel pretty safe and set in some order to me, 11-20 seems like it’s open and can see some movement.
 
#309
#309
Not a huge slate, the Texas/Arkansas & Purdue/Northwestern games are definitely the biggest…



Today’s slate:
7:00pm: Texas vs. Arkansas
8:00pm: Maryland vs. Wisconsin
8:00pm: Villanova vs. DePaul
8:30pm: Purdue vs. Northwestern
 
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#310
#310
bleedingTNorange said:
How do you draw that from Lunardi having us as the top 5 seed, next in line for a 4?
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Figure vols probably suffer at least 1 more loss and obviously Vanderbilt this weekend no cake walk to prevent a second. Could Alabama lose this weekend to Auburn and their first game next week? Sure same with Arkansas could lose 3 games in a row. Just suspect not a lot of wins left for vols to climb up. Happy to be wrong.
 
#311
#311
Chaz-Vol said:
Figure vols probably suffer at least 1 more loss and obviously Vanderbilt this weekend no cake walk to prevent a second. Could Alabama lose this weekend to Auburn and their first game next week? Sure same with Arkansas could lose 3 games in a row. Just suspect not a lot of wins left for vols to climb up. Happy to be wrong.
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I’m not conceding a loss this weekend, maybe I’m a dummy
 
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#312
#312
bleedingTNorange said:
I’m not conceding a loss this weekend, maybe I’m a dummy
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Same. Ament was fairly ineffective as a secondary scoring option two weeks ago at Vandy (though he did rebound well), and Estrella didn't play. We took care of the ball, as we did last night.

Even if Ament doesn't play, which is still a possibility, we match up very well with Vandy inside like we did with USCe.

Obviously, no guarantee we win, but Vandy has lost 3 of 5. They don't scare me in Knoxville like they did in Nashville. It's also their 3rd straight road game.
 
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#314
#314
bleedingTNorange said:
Correct, there’s 5 in the projected top 6 seed lines currently was what I was referencing, but yes the top 4 will get split up. If you end up with 5 SEC teams on the 4/5 lines then someone is getting paired with 1 obviously, but in that case they may ideally drop 1 to a 6.
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I get what you're saying. Hopefully they're able to figure it out. I'm surprised Lunardi didn't have Vanderbilt in his mix of 4/5 seeds on last night's Twitter post, but he's running crazy this time of year so it could've been a simple oversight. He's also not the most accurate when it comes to seeding projections once you get past the 1's and 2's.
 
#315
#315
MoCo_Vol said:
Think he was just saying we got 1 more loss likely before seeding. (in SECT being the conceded time it happens)
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I don’t disagree a loss is likely, but to assume that hurts our seeding isn’t correct imo…about 99.9% of other teams will also suffer at least 1 loss
 
#316
#316
bleedingTNorange said:
I don’t disagree a loss is likely, but to assume that hurts our seeding isn’t correct imo…about 99.9% of other teams will also suffer at least 1 loss
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Honestly I think 5 seed is where we are unless we win the SECT and beat Vandy Saturday...then we could move up to a 4.
 
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#317
#317
MoCo_Vol said:
Honestly I think 5 seed is where we are unless we win the SECT and beat Vandy Saturday...then we could move up to a 4.
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I think a win Saturday and a 4 becomes very likely, as we’ve seen Saturday and Sunday typically don’t matter in the SECT
 
#318
#318
bleedingTNorange said:
I don’t disagree a loss is likely, but to assume that hurts our seeding isn’t correct imo…about 99.9% of other teams will also suffer at least 1 loss
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I don't think the loss hurts, I think vols are mostly locked into a 5 seed unless they get some nice wins next week on caliber of bama, Arkansas, or Florida. But would be happy if the get up to 4 seed.
 
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#319
#319
Zags 28-3
Virginia 26-4
Texas Tech 22-8
Bama 22-8

That's the 4 seeds right now...

We can for sure replace with Texas Tech or Bama...especially if they both lose a 9th game

Bama would have the edge in Quad 1 record...but we've split games head to head and they would have 2 Quad 2 losses.
Texas Tech would have just 1 more Quad 1 win, but they've played 11 quad 3/4 teams to our 9 so I think we'd have the edge

Best case for us is beat Vandy and see BYU beat Texas Tech and Auburn upset Bama


A few 3 seeds could also stumble which might slide them back and move up Zags/Virginia and open things up...

Kansas 21-9 with a Q3 game left
Purdue 22-7 with 2 games left both not teams that will help their seeding, but losses could hurt it

UNC beats Duke they can climb from the 6 line for sure...
BYU & Kentucky are both 6 seeds right now that I doubt can do enough to jump higher at this point.


So yeah...5 seed would be my prediction at this point, but a 4 seed does seem possible... just may need other teams to lose games.
 
#320
#320
To add onto my previous post about 1st round location, Portland will either go to Gonzaga and the lowest 4 seed, or to the 2 lowest 4 seeds if Gonzaga moves down below a 4. Now if we are placed in Portland as a 4 seed, and our 5 seed is Virginia, then no big deal honestly. I mean, it would be a bit of a lame atmosphere as a 2nd round game, but that would beat having to face Gonzaga there.

I guess my point is, I would like to not only be a 4 seed, but be in the top half of 4 seeds.
 
#321
#321
Stop Tanner, stop vandy.. I’d expect someone to be on him full court for most of the game with help defense on his drives. Let somebody else beat you.
 
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#324
#324
Based on the Bracketmatrix these would be the ideal 4 vs 5 matchups in 2nd round. I think they are sticking with these 8 teams. I wouldn't mind it actually.

4 KANSAS vs 5 ARKANSAS (potential rematch of last year tourney 1st round)
4 BAMA vs 5 NORTH CAROLINA ( potential rematch of regular season last year and rematch of 2023-24 tourney sweet 16)
4 GONZAGA vs 5 VANDERBILT ( brand new series )
4 VIRGINIA vs 5 TENNESSEE ( potential rematch of last year regular season )
 
#325
#325
Dougie_D said:
Based on the Bracketmatrix these would be the ideal 4 vs 5 matchups in 2nd round. I think they are sticking with these 8 teams. I wouldn't mind it actually.

4 KANSAS vs 5 ARKANSAS (potential rematch of last year tourney 1st round)
4 BAMA vs 5 NORTH CAROLINA ( potential rematch of regular season last year and rematch of 2023-24 tourney sweet 16)
4 GONZAGA vs 5 VANDERBILT ( brand new series )
4 VIRGINIA vs 5 TENNESSEE ( potential rematch of last year regular season )
Click to expand...
i would definitely take playing uva
 
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