2026 Official Seed Watch List Thread

[bleedingTNorange]

As of today, 1/11/26, TeamRankings gives us pretty much a 50/50 split of being 5 seed or better, or 6 seed or worse. The by seed chances are listed below, I’ll update periodically in this post but also make a new post in the thread as well when I do so. Our most likely range is from a 3 seed to 8 seed, so that’s what I’ll focus on with teams around us and the seed list that I post, just like in years past I will use bracketmatrix.com…


3 seed
Purdue
Kansas
Michigan State
Florida
——————————
4 seed
Gonzaga
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Texas Tech
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5 seed
Alabama
North Carolina
Tennessee
St. John’s
——————————
6 seed
Arkansas
BYU
Louisville
Clemson
——————————
7 seed
Saint Louis
Kentucky
Iowa
North Carolina State
——————————
8 seed
Villanova
Auburn
Utah State
Central Florida

 

[cncchris33]

Barring an undefeated finish, I think 4 is our ceiling. Sure would be nice to get to a 3, though. Maybe a strong SECT run would bump us up a line without finishing undefeated.

 

[MinisterofDef#92]

We can nake sure Candy drops and we replace them as a 4 seed IF we take care of business against an "easy" SEC schedule starting tonight.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Barring an undefeated finish, I think 4 is our ceiling. Sure would be nice to get to a 3, though. Maybe a strong SECT run would bump us up a line without finishing undefeated.

I think a 7-1 finish with your only loss on the road to a Top 20 Vandy could get you to that 3-line, as we’d pick up two more quality wins against Vandy and Alabama to boost our resume and metrics.

But, I think 6-2 is far more likely of a finish. We have yet to drop our obligatory and annual “weird SEC loss” to a bad team. I just don’t see us getting through the rest of this without a slip up against a Mizzou on the road or USC. Or even MSU tonight. So I’m at 6-2 as the most likely finish.

 

[vol94]

Barring an undefeated finish, I think 4 is our ceiling. Sure would be nice to get to a 3, though. Maybe a strong SECT run would bump us up a line without finishing undefeated.

I think a 3 seed may be a reach. You would need numerous teams to drop a couple ( Purdue, Zags, etc) along w/ TN winning all but one.

If I was a betting man, I would say final four will be all one seeds as those teams are playing well. But, Anything can happen in March.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

While not a direct correlation but 3/4 #2 seeds took a L last night: Nebraska, Illinois & Iowa State. Nebraska has lost 3/4 and is dropping quick.

 

[cncchris33]

I think a 3 seed may be a reach. You would need numerous teams to drop a couple ( Purdue, Zags, etc) along w/ TN winning all but one.

If I was a betting man, I would say final four will be all one seeds as those teams are playing well. But, Anything can happen in March.

I agree with a 3 being a reach. It isn't hard to find 12 teams who could finish the season with a better résumé than Tennessee. Plus, I just don’t see us doing what's necessary to get our own résumé to the edge of 3-seed territory. We are too erratic. Hope I'm wrong, obviously.