2024 Official Seed List Watch Party Thread

#929
#929
VolArmy74 said:
He does but noted that we would be battling it out this week for the final #1 slot. A stark contrast to his absolutism in 2022 saying the SECT was absolutely meaningless about our seed vs Kentucky's.
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My point was things “look evenish” now, using your words, but he has UT > UNC, not vice versa which was your suggestion.
 
#931
#931
bleedingTNorange said:
Why is it that when Lunardi talks and says something we don’t like we say he’s a mouth piece for the committee and gets info from them, but when he says something positive about Tennessee (they’re still a 1) then we stop thinking he has info? Just a case of BVS?
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IIRC, the Kennedy Chandler season we got a 3 seed instead of a 2 and we felt shafted. I think most bracket predictions/predictors had us on the 2 line but Lunardi had us as a 3. Then when asked why we were a 2 instead of a 3 he didn't have an answer...it was something along the lines of "the committee just wasn't going to put Tennessee on the 2 line". Since then, I read the opinion that he's a mouthpiece for the committee and I believe it, to an extent.
 
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#932
#932
RudyVol said:
IIRC, the Kennedy Chandler season we got a 3 seed instead of a 2 and we felt shafted. I think most bracket predictions/predictors had us on the 2 line but Lunardi had us as a 3. Then when asked why we were a 2 instead of a 3 he didn't have an answer...it was something along the lines of "the committee just wasn't going to put Tennessee on the 2 line". Since then, I read the opinion that he's a mouthpiece for the committee and I believe it, to an extent.
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That was the year we won the SECT, entering it we were a 3 seed iirc, after winning games and then winning it all it felt we should have moved up but we didn’t…that’s when we realized apparently conference tourneys don’t mean anything, until they do again lol.
 
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#933
#933
I'll say this... I can stomach losing out on a 1 seed to UNC a lot more than I could Arizona. I do believe our resume is a bit better than UNC's, but it's close and they did beat us, though it was at their place. Arizona has played 4 games against teams with a pulse since December and lost 2 of them, plus 3 clunkers if you include their new year's eve loss to Stanford. A win in early November should only be able to carry you so far.
 
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#934
#934
Stoerner Fumbles said:
This is a really nuanced territory, but I don’t want to contribute to the ambiguity. If I were forced to make a call right now, I think we’re a one again after the Arizona loss. I think our win list and lack of bad losses puts us out ahead of UNC. I think Arizona really hurt themselves last night. That said, this is a fragile one seed, if we have it. Head to head is a real thing and a real topic, regardless of the other more important metrics. Storylines, blue blood programs and the desire to keep the big conferences happy are all real inputs. I guarantee you from first person accounts that the Darwinism of selecting teams on narratives and biases happens. Calling that a “conspiracy” is lazy, reductive and ignorant of the real world. When GM/Pontiac was the official sponsor in the early 2000’s they were “talked through” the bracket prior to its release every year. Why? Because they made a 50 million dollar media buy. That’s why. That’s not a “conspiracy”. That’s a fact. Lunardi is almost exactly the creature you describe. He is a hack and not very good at his job. He makes brackets that have direct rule conflicts with pairings that will never happen. He is also an ABC/ESPN/Disney employee. He gets an early look via conversations with the major networks. His brackets are suddenly very good in the last weekend. I’ll also note that he recently echoed my observation that the committee’s desire to have a one from the West in the Western region would bias them to give it to Arizona if they could justify it. Again that is a fact. At this point, they absolutely cannot justify putting Arizona on that line. If they can, they will. The media market, time zones and regional biases are real. In addition to the national advertisers, there are also regional and local advertisers. They want a team from their area. That’s a fact. They don’t need to lobby anyone. The networks’ business model is pretty simple. Advertisers pay the bills. They love blue blood stories. They hate when big programs with big fanbases lose. Right now, this minute, I think that’s our one. It’s a fragile one. That isn’t a conspiracy. It isn’t BVS. It’s economic Darwinism. We need to win a game and maybe two this week. It’d be great if we won all of them. We do not need to exit early (and) have UNC pick up more Q1 wins or have Arizona win their tournament in the face of us losing early. I’m not going to step in and have this conversation ten more times. I can tell you unequivocally that they sit with their rules and metrics every year and generally follow them, but there is pressure and an understanding of who they serve. They step outside those guidelines when it is gray. It has quite literally happened to us before. I think we’re a one today. I think it’s fragile.
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Agree totally. Unlike what many are saying on this board, when the choice is this close (Az vs UT), the conference tournament will play a role in the seeding. UT needs to win fri and sat to lock down a one seed. Lose Friday or Saturday, lose the one seed.
 
#935
#935
bleedingTNorange said:
That was the year we won the SECT, entering it we were a 3 seed iirc, after winning games and then winning it all it felt we should have moved up but we didn’t…that’s when we realized apparently conference tourneys don’t mean anything, until they do again lol.
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Yep...for that year at least that's the criteria. I friend of mine that is a Duke fan said the same exact thing happened to them last year.
 
#936
#936
bleedingTNorange said:
That was the year we won the SECT, entering it we were a 3 seed iirc, after winning games and then winning it all it felt we should have moved up but we didn’t…that’s when we realized apparently conference tourneys don’t mean anything, until they do again lol.
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Yeah, does this mean we are actually going to be playing for seeding? Sorry if it's already been discussed. I'll have to take back what I said about the SEC tournament if it's actually going to count for something in the NCAA. 1000003621.jpg
 
#937
#937
Chris4Vols22 said:
Yeah, does this mean we are actually going to be playing for seeding? Sorry if it's already been discussed. I'll have to take back what I said about the SEC tournament if it's actually going to count for something in the NCAA. View attachment 626320
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The last few years, it has appeared to me that the bracket is done on Friday, with some variables left in to account for unexpected automatic qualifiers.

I believe this cause we’ve seen it work in two ways. Teams not be able improve seeding based on weekend performances. And teams not being able to get off the bubble due to weekend performances.

so I think it’s likely our game with Miss State will matter. Any after that likely won’t

That is, unless the committee has pinned in this last 1 seed as a variable and they really will take into account weekend games.

But I find that unlikely. They’ll probably determine the 1 seed on Friday.

Don’t be surprised to see a scenario where UNC gets the 1. But we won the sec tournament and UNC lost in their semis. Or vice versa. Which would confirm that bracket was done ahead of time.
 
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#938
#938
bleedingTNorange said:
That was the year we won the SECT, entering it we were a 3 seed iirc, after winning games and then winning it all it felt we should have moved up but we didn’t…that’s when we realized apparently conference tourneys don’t mean anything, until they do again lol.
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And if you remember, Texas A&M in everybody’s mind had played their way in based on SEC tournament performance, and then got left out (and instead they made NIT championship)
 
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#939
#939
Chris4Vols22 said:
Yeah, does this mean we are actually going to be playing for seeding? Sorry if it's already been discussed. I'll have to take back what I said about the SEC tournament if it's actually going to count for something in the NCAA. View attachment 626320
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I mean that take sure makes it sound like it, like I said you just never know year to year with the committee. Now in fairness with as close as those 3 teams are right now for the last spot taking into account the conference tournament to seed them is probably a fair move.
 
#940
#940
omghulkhands said:
And if you remember, Texas A&M in everybody’s mind had played their way in based on SEC tournament performance, and then got left out (and instead they made NIT championship)
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Yup…I’m with your above take that often times it has seemed the bracket is done by Friday in large part.
 
#941
#941
omghulkhands said:
The last few years, it has appeared to me that the bracket is done on Friday, with some variables left in to account for unexpected automatic qualifiers.

I believe this cause we’ve seen it work in two ways. Teams no be able improve seeding based on weekend performances. And teams not being able to get off the bubble due to weekend performances.

so I think it’s likely our game with Miss State will matter. Any after that likely won’t

That is, unless the committee has pinned in this last 1 seed as a variable and they really will take into account weekend games.

But I find that unlikely. They’ll probably determine the 1 seed on Friday.

Don’t be surprised to see a scenario where UNC gets the 1. But we won the sec tournament and UNC lost in their semis. Or vice versa. Which would confirm that bracket was done ahead of time.
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I think this is accurate. Their championship happening a day earlier could work for/against them depending on the outcome.
If they’re done Friday and we’re playing, I think we’re solid. If they win Saturday, that may be insurmountable.
 
#942
#942
I posted something similar in another thread, but this is probably the more appropriate place. I think these are the reasonable 1 and 2 seed scenarios.

The underlying assumption is that Purdue gets the overall #1, which they honestly should with their 8-1 record in Q1A games 19-3 overall Q1/Q2 record.

Scenario 1: Tennessee gets 1 seed:

West: (1) Tennessee, (2) Arizona
Midwest: (1) Purdue, (2) Iowa State
South: (1) Houston, (2) Marquette
East: (1) UCONN, (2) North Carolina


Scenario 2: North Carolina gets 1 seed:

West: (1) North Carolina, (2) Arizona
Midwest: (1) Purdue, (2) Marquette
South: (1) Houston, (2) Tennessee
East: (1) UCONN, (2) Iowa State


Scenario 3: Arizona gets 1 seed:

West: (1) Arizona, (2) Marquette
Midwest: (1) Purdue, (2) Iowa State
South: (1) Houston, (2) Tennessee
East: (1) UCONN, (2) North Carolina
 
#943
#943
Wait how is Arizona tied with us and UNC after they just lost to USC? It would seem to me that they are a distant third after Saturday
 
#944
#944
wtmvol said:
I posted something similar in another thread, but this is probably the more appropriate place. I think these are the reasonable 1 and 2 seed scenarios.

The underlying assumption is that Purdue gets the overall #1, which they honestly should with their 8-1 record in Q1A games 19-3 overall Q1/Q2 record.

Scenario 1: Tennessee gets 1 seed:

West: (1) Tennessee, (2) Arizona
Midwest: (1) Purdue, (2) Iowa State
South: (1) Houston, (2) Marquette
East: (1) UCONN, (2) North Carolina


Scenario 2: North Carolina gets 1 seed:

West: (1) North Carolina, (2) Arizona
Midwest: (1) Purdue, (2) Marquette
South: (1) Houston, (2) Tennessee
East: (1) UCONN, (2) Iowa State


Scenario 3: Arizona gets 1 seed:

West: (1) Arizona, (2) Marquette
Midwest: (1) Purdue, (2) Iowa State
South: (1) Houston, (2) Tennessee
East: (1) UCONN, (2) North Carolina
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I’m starting to think that Houston might actually get the #1 overall seed if they perform well in the B12 tournament. If that’s the case, if TN doesn’t get the last 1-seed, we are probably headed to the Midwest. I doubt they put the top 2-seed (TN) in the region of the #1 overall seed. That being said, much of this probably depends on conference tournaments for once. Maybe this is the year they actually matter lol.
 
#945
#945
TheMookieMonster said:
I’m starting to think that Houston might actually get the #1 overall seed if they perform well in the B12 tournament. If that’s the case, if TN doesn’t get the last 1-seed, we are probably headed to the Midwest. I doubt they put the top 2-seed (TN) in the region of the #1 overall seed. That being said, much of this probably depends on conference tournaments for once. Maybe this is the year they actually matter lol.
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It's possible. But of the 14 Q1 games Purdue has played, 9 of them have been Q1A, and they're 8-1 in those games. They got a tough draw in the Big10 Tournament, potentially having to play Michigan St in the quarterfinals. If they win that, I think they're the overall 1. If they lose, the door could be open for Houston.

To your point, if Houston becomes the overall #1, then we'll likely get shifted to the Midwest.
 
#947
#947
JCP201 said:
So it was between us and Arizona, and Arizona loses to a blah USC team. Suddenly because UNC beat Dukey they are ahead of us, because we lost to a ranked Kentucky team (after beating three ranked teams) That math don't add up to me.
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Cant make it make sense
 
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#948
#948
Chris4Vols22 said:
Yeah, does this mean we are actually going to be playing for seeding? Sorry if it's already been discussed. I'll have to take back what I said about the SEC tournament if it's actually going to count for something in the NCAA. View attachment 626320
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I’m pretty sure this was written before the Arizona loss Saturday night
 
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#949
#949
omghulkhands said:
And if you remember, Texas A&M in everybody’s mind had played their way in based on SEC tournament performance, and then got left out (and instead they made NIT championship)
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The most memorable thing about that is even after their first NIT game, Williams was still spitting facts about how they should have been in during the NIT post game press conference. He talked about it before even talking about their NIT win.
 
#950
#950
wtmvol said:
I posted something similar in another thread, but this is probably the more appropriate place. I think these are the reasonable 1 and 2 seed scenarios.

The underlying assumption is that Purdue gets the overall #1, which they honestly should with their 8-1 record in Q1A games 19-3 overall Q1/Q2 record.

Scenario 1: Tennessee gets 1 seed:

West: (1) Tennessee, (2) Arizona
Midwest: (1) Purdue, (2) Iowa State
South: (1) Houston, (2) Marquette
East: (1) UCONN, (2) North Carolina


Scenario 2: North Carolina gets 1 seed:

West: (1) North Carolina, (2) Arizona
Midwest: (1) Purdue, (2) Marquette
South: (1) Houston, (2) Tennessee
East: (1) UCONN, (2) Iowa State


Scenario 3: Arizona gets 1 seed:

West: (1) Arizona, (2) Marquette
Midwest: (1) Purdue, (2) Iowa State
South: (1) Houston, (2) Tennessee
East: (1) UCONN, (2) North Carolina
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I agree with all of this. Will be interesting to see, regardless of outcome, who our #3 and #4 seeds are. If we end up #1 in the West, which I think we will, I’m willing to bet we get Baylor as our #3 and Illinois as our #4.
 
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