2020 Primaries

#3,076
#3,076
1972 Grad said:
If it actually is Biden, which I still have doubts, his VP choice is very important. The public is aware that he isn't quite all there. The choice would need to be someone with a strong resume and experience to calm fears about his mental acuity.
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#3,079
#3,079
1972 Grad said:
5 current Democrat female Governors. Only 2 have been in office more than a few months. Oregon and Rhode Island. Oregon Governor is openly bi-sexual, so that's certainly attractive to the Democrats. Nothing quite like doing the deed with anything that walks.
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Forced diversity isn't the crowd pleaser that enlightened libs think it is.
 
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#3,081
#3,081
volinbham said:
Is he eligible? Or would they have to skip him if Biden croaks and make the Spkr of House POTUS?
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Like everything else in our democracy, there's a degree of ambiguity with the wording of the 12th and 22nd Amendments that makes it an interesting question. I don't see Obama being even remotely interested in pushing the envelope, though I could absolutely envision Trump trying something like this if he were younger.
 
#3,084
#3,084
volinbham said:
Just saw some spending money from D candidates in California.

Biden $4000
Sanders $7M
Bloomberg $78M !

I see a "I spent $78 million on election ads and all I got was this stupid shirt" moment coming for Bloomy
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The Bernie horse may already be out of the barn.
 
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#3,086
#3,086
Imo Biden/Bernie camps need to start talking yesterday about what a contested convention looks like between them.

I will need serious commitments either through the VP pick or in policy shifts if I am going to back Biden in a contested convention where Bernie leads.

If Bernie leads significantly and they give it to Biden, I'll probably just vote 3rd Party.

I don't think a Biden/Bernie Bernie/Biden ticket is really feasible either.

My honest hope is that one of them captures it outright. I don't like Biden all that much, but h capturing it outright is better than a contested convention no matter who emerges.

Also, I wonder if party leaders are throwing around the idea of giving the nomination to Warren as a compromise? Idk if that would work or not.
 
#3,088
#3,088
I wouldn't be surprised at all, especially given today's dropouts, if Biden enters the convention with more delegates than Bernie. There would still be a contested convention, but of course Biden would easily win that given he'd be entering it with more delegates.

Bernie's problem in 2016 and his likely problem this time is that he just doesn't quite have the votes to get himself out of the gray area. He can't pull off what Trump did on the GOP side, which was "I got the votes and there's not a damn thing you can do about it." Yes, there were shenanigans the Dems pulled to favor Hillary last time (getting debate questions ahead of time, etc.) but ultimately the nomination wasn't "stolen" from Bernie. It isn't like he had the votes/delegates but Hillary was nominated anyway.
 
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#3,089
#3,089
zaqhhh said:
Imo Biden/Bernie camps need to start talking yesterday about what a contested convention looks like between them.

I will need serious commitments either through the VP pick or in policy shifts if I am going to back Biden in a contested convention where Bernie leads.

If Bernie leads significantly and they give it to Biden, I'll probably just vote 3rd Party.

I don't think a Biden/Bernie Bernie/Biden ticket is really feasible either.

My honest hope is that one of them captures it outright. I don't like Biden all that much, but h capturing it outright is better than a contested convention no matter who emerges.

Also, I wonder if party leaders are throwing around the idea of giving the nomination to Warren as a compromise? Idk if that would work or not.
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A Biden/Bernie contested convention is over in the second round. Biden Delegates +Buttigieg and Bloomberg delegates put him over the 50%+1 if not the super delegates will step in.
 
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#3,090
#3,090
zaqhhh said:
Imo Biden/Bernie camps need to start talking yesterday about what a contested convention looks like between them.

I will need serious commitments either through the VP pick or in policy shifts if I am going to back Biden in a contested convention where Bernie leads.

If Bernie leads significantly and they give it to Biden, I'll probably just vote 3rd Party.

I don't think a Biden/Bernie Bernie/Biden ticket is really feasible either.

My honest hope is that one of them captures it outright. I don't like Biden all that much, but h capturing it outright is better than a contested convention no matter who emerges.

Also, I wonder if party leaders are throwing around the idea of giving the nomination to Warren as a compromise? Idk if that would work or not.
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2016 Bernie benefited heavily from being the only alternative to Hillary. His NH win this time was weak, and owed a lot to Amy having the best debate of her life and peeling support away from Pete. His Nevada win was the high water mark and even that was tempered by the fight with the culinary union for daring to put out a flyer telling truth about Bernie's health care plan.

Bernie 2016 vs. Bernie 2020
IA 49.6% 26.5%
NH 60.1% 25.6%
NV 47.3% 40.5%
SC 26% 19.9%

If Biden over-performs his polling half as much as he did in South Carolina, Bernie will be back in the same box as last time but against a candidate that some people actually like.
 
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#3,091
#3,091
BreatheUT said:
This should be really interesting including the overt coalition against Bernie in the democratic party.
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No one likes Bernie. No one has ever liked him. He has always been an angry old man who gives you the finger when you tell him good morning. And when you act the way Bernie has acted to people in politics no one has a problem politically shanking him.
 
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#3,093
#3,093
Rifleman said:
2016 Bernie benefited heavily from being the only alternative to Hillary. His NH win this time was weak, and owed a lot to Amy having the best debate of her life a peeling support away from Pete. His Nevada win was the high water mark and even that was tempered by the fight with the culinary union for daring to put out a flyer telling truth about Bernie's health care plan.

2016 2020
IA 49.6% 26.5%
NH 60.1% 25.6%
NV 47.3% 40.5%
SC 26% 19.9%

If Biden over-performs his polling half as much as he did in South Carolina, Bernie will be back in the same box as last time but against a candidate that some people actually like.
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California still looks like a big win for him unless almost all those Pete/Klob votes switch to Biden
 
#3,098
#3,098
volinbham said:
California still looks like a big win for him unless almost all those Pete/Klob votes switch to Biden
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It will be a few days before we know, but I wonder how deep his support there is. If Biden pops up to 25 - 28 and Bernie's ceiling is low then Bernie's gains there won't offset the shellacking he's going to get in Florida in a few weeks, not to mention Georgia.
 
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#3,100
#3,100
carlos86 said:
Biden is projected to get 1,482 delegates
Bernie 1573
Bloomberg 621
Warren 26

With Bloomberg pledged delegates Biden gets 2,103 and you need 1,990 to clinch the nomination.
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It will be interesting. Sanders will win Texas and Cali tomorrow for sure!
 
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