2020 Presidential Race

#10,277
#10,277
1972 Grad said:
Kinda does, doesn't it?
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Dig deeper into the footnotes of most of these polls and you will typically see samples are skewed by several points to Democrats. All about nothing anyways as we have an electoral process, not an individual vote count.
 
#10,278
#10,278
Rifleman said:
But popular vote polls are meaningless too. The Electoral College is how we elect Presidents.

Trump is pretty close to where he needs to be for re-election. He could sustain a much larger popular vote loss than last time and still get 270 in the EC.

Polls are really to just give the media easy stories that avoid real issues or policy. That way they can sell their medications and adult diapers without risking offending viewers by asking them to think. That is the only thing the average American hates more than the evil black hats on the other side.

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No... definitely not "much larger". I don't think some of you realize how close the 2016 election was. Trump won by virtue of winning 3 states:

Pennsylvania (which he won by 68,000 votes)
Michigan (which he won by 12,000 votes)
Wisconsin (which he won by 24,000 votes)

That is just a grand total of 104,000 votes across 3 states. Trump really tested the limits of how badly you can lose the popular vote but still clear 270 electoral college votes last time. He doesn't need all 3 of those states in 2020, but he will need at least one of them (unless he can carry Minnesota). If he is running against Biden? I don't see it happening.
 
#10,279
#10,279
BowlBrother85 said:
No... definitely not "much larger". I don't think some of you realize how close the 2016 election was. Trump won by virtue of winning 3 states:

Pennsylvania (which he won by 68,000 votes)
Michigan (which he won by 12,000 votes)
Wisconsin (which he won by 24,000)

That is just a grand total of 104,000 votes across 3 states. Trump really tested the limits of how badly you can lose the popular vote but still clear 270 electoral college votes last time. He doesn't need all 3 of those states in 2020, but he will need at least one of them (unless he can carry Minnesota). If he is running against Biden? I don't see it happening.
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…..and Trump is just as much the President as Nixon and Reagan were when they won 49 states.
 
#10,280
#10,280
BowlBrother85 said:
No... definitely not "much larger". I don't think some of you realize how close the 2016 election was. Trump won by virtue of winning 3 states:

Pennsylvania (which he won by 68,000 votes)
Michigan (which he won by 12,000 votes)
Wisconsin (which he won by 24,000 votes)

That is just a grand total of 104,000 votes across 3 states. Trump really tested the limits of how badly you can lose the popular vote but still clear 270 electoral college votes last time. He doesn't need all 3 of those states in 2020, but he will need at least one of them (unless he can carry Minnesota). If he is running against Biden? I don't see it happening.
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You're making me reconsider the plausibility of Biden. I would be happy with him.
My primary factor will be which candidate will most assuredly beat Trump.
 
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#10,281
#10,281
BowlBrother85 said:
No... definitely not "much larger". I don't think some of you realize how close the 2016 election was. Trump won by virtue of winning 3 states:

Pennsylvania (which he won by 68,000 votes)
Michigan (which he won by 12,000 votes)
Wisconsin (which he won by 24,000 votes)

That is just a grand total of 104,000 votes across 3 states. Trump really tested the limits of how badly you can lose the popular vote but still clear 270 electoral college votes last time. He doesn't need all 3 of those states in 2020, but he will need at least one of them (unless he can carry Minnesota). If he is running against Biden? I don't see it happening.
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Biden doesn't scare me like the rest do. His Presidency would likely not amount to much real action. I would not be surprised if Biden won, however the modern base will not be very excited to turn out for him.
 
#10,282
#10,282
volfanjustin said:
Biden doesn't scare me like the rest do. His Presidency would likely not amount to much real action. I would not be surprised if Biden won, however the modern base will not be very excited to turn out for him.
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I would agree with this... but this election won't be about turning out in favor of anyone on the Democratic side. It's about stoking anger and rallying the base against Trump. The Democrats have to make the election a referendum on Trump's conduct.
 
#10,283
#10,283
BowlBrother85 said:
I would agree with this... but this election won't be about turning out in favor of anyone on the Democratic side. It's about stoking anger and rallying the base against Trump. The Democrats have to make the election a referendum on Trump's conduct.
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How about some policy that would good for the American Citizens?
 
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#10,284
#10,284
BowlBrother85 said:
No... definitely not "much larger". I don't think some of you realize how close the 2016 election was. Trump won by virtue of winning 3 states:

Pennsylvania (which he won by 68,000 votes)
Michigan (which he won by 12,000 votes)
Wisconsin (which he won by 24,000 votes)

That is just a grand total of 104,000 votes across 3 states. Trump really tested the limits of how badly you can lose the popular vote but still clear 270 electoral college votes last time. He doesn't need all 3 of those states in 2020, but he will need at least one of them (unless he can carry Minnesota). If he is running against Biden? I don't see it happening.
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I am well aware of all that, but you are making false assumptions and not looking at long-term trends. Give PA and MI to the blue team and Trump still can hit 270. Wisconsin is trending red just like Iowa. Biden could win it but it will be close.

The Electoral College is creating a dynamic that is bending right-ward as of now, but that is because there is about to be a seismic shift in the other direction.

Read Dave Wasserman's article here:

How Trump could lose by 5 million votes and still win in 2020

Dave Wasserman said:
Bottom line: Mired at an approval rating in the low 40s, Trump has a narrow path to re-election. But the concentration of demographic change in noncompetitive states, particularly California and Texas, threatens to further widen the chasm between the popular vote and the Electoral College, easing his path. Trump could once again win with less than 47 percent, a victory threshold far below the share of the popular vote the Democratic nominee might need.
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#10,285
#10,285
LouderVol said:
No they dont. At least Obama didnt. Obama gets cheered on here all the time for his relations with foreign nations and all he did for them. Never seen a president campaign in foreign countries before. Paris Accords if nothing else was putting other nations before the US.
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You say that like the USA doesn’t massively benefit from strong relationships throughout the world.
 
#10,287
#10,287
BowlBrother85 said:
I would agree with this... but this election won't be about turning out in favor of anyone on the Democratic side. It's about stoking anger and rallying the base against Trump. The Democrats have to make the election a referendum on Trump's conduct.
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So the left is about to repeat the mistakes of 90's Republicans? Everyone knows Trump's a creep, and those that argue against the mountain of evidence against his character are not reachable.

The Democrats have a bunch of policy positions that poll very well which just helped them in the midterms. I guess just ignore all that?
 
#10,288
#10,288
Rifleman said:
I am well aware of all that, but you are making false assumptions and not looking at long-term trends. Give PA and MI to the blue team and Trump still can hit 270. Wisconsin is trending red just like Iowa. Biden could win it but it will be close.

The Electoral College is creating a dynamic that is bending right-ward as of now, but that is because there is about to be a seismic shift in the other direction.

Read Dave Wasserman's article here:

How Trump could lose by 5 million votes and still win in 2020
Click to expand...
Wisconsin just elected a Democratic Governor (Scott Walker was ousted). Iowa has been red.
 
#10,289
#10,289
BowlBrother85 said:
I would agree with this... but this election won't be about turning out in favor of anyone on the Democratic side. It's about stoking anger and rallying the base against Trump. The Democrats have to make the election a referendum on Trump's conduct.
Click to expand...

You know what we agree here because you all can't win on policy
 
#10,290
#10,290
BowlBrother85 said:
Wisconsin just elected a Democratic Governor (Scott Walker was ousted). Iowa has been red.
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It took them 4 elections to narrowly beat Walker in a nailbiter, and he was so aggressively right wing that 100s of millions of out of state money flowed to his opponents. When he ran for President, he looked out of his depth mentally in a race Donald Trump won.

Sorry, Wisconsin is going red for the same reason Iowa did. Kids in those states move to Chicago, Minneapolis, even Omaha, because that is where the money is. So the remaining populace is older and angrier and more conservative.
 
#10,291
#10,291
BowlBrother85 said:
Also, there is a new poll from Quinnipiac out now, that shows a hypothetical head to head match up for President in the state of Ohio as:

Ohio: General Election

Joseph Biden 50%
Donald Trump 42%

That is a big one, Trump does not have a path to 270 electoral college votes without winning Ohio.
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Democrats have already forgot how the polls in the days before November 8th, 2016 looked?
😂🤣😄
 
#10,292
#10,292
Rifleman said:
It took them 4 elections to narrowly beat Walker in a nailbiter, and he was so aggressively right wing that 100s of millions of out of state money flowed to his opponents. When he ran for President, he looked out of his depth mentally in a race Donald Trump won.

Sorry, Wisconsin is going red for the same reason Iowa did. Kids in those states move to Chicago, Minneapolis, even Omaha, because that is where the money is. So the remaining populace is older and angrier and more conservative.
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lol
 
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#10,293
#10,293
BowlBrother85 said:
No... definitely not "much larger". I don't think some of you realize how close the 2016 election was. Trump won by virtue of winning 3 states:

Pennsylvania (which he won by 68,000 votes)
Michigan (which he won by 12,000 votes)
Wisconsin (which he won by 24,000 votes)

That is just a grand total of 104,000 votes across 3 states. Trump really tested the limits of how badly you can lose the popular vote but still clear 270 electoral college votes last time. He doesn't need all 3 of those states in 2020, but he will need at least one of them (unless he can carry Minnesota). If he is running against Biden? I don't see it happening.
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Well, he did so during a soft coup that was lying to the public about him being a traitor, and while his opponents were spying on him. How much more will he win by now that they can't spy on him and Mueller's Forest Gump impersonation showed the Democrats as liars that tried to oust a duly elected President?

Potato/Potahto, I guess. You say he proved what a slim margin one could win by. I say he proved he could win under such circumstances. I think my pronunciation should make the Dems YOOOOOOGELY nervous.
 
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#10,294
#10,294
Trump will get re-elected, the dems are too fractured and no one stands out that has a chance in hell. Then after that in 2024 the dems will win with some other dipshit and round and round we go as people argue for nothing.
 
#10,297
#10,297
Orange_Crush said:
Well, he did so during a soft coup that was lying to the public about him being a traitor, and while his opponents were spying on him. How much more will he win by now that they can't spy on him and Mueller's Forest Gump impersonation showed the Democrats as liars that tried to oust a duly elected President?

Potato/Potahto, I guess. You say he proved what a slim margin one could win by. I say he proved he could win under such circumstances. I think my pronunciation should make the Dems YOOOOOOGELY nervous.
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It has been illegal in the past to request material aid against your opponent from foreign governments, hostile or otherwise, in a U.S. Presidential election. Donald Trump did it on live TV in front of cameras.
 
#10,300
#10,300
bignewt said:
Trump will get re-elected, the dems are too fractured and no one stands out that has a chance in hell. Then after that in 2024 the dems will win with some other dipshit and round and round we go as people argue for nothing.
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Not based on anything factual... If for nothing other than being the pragmatic choice, Biden stands out and none of the labels of "socialist" or "squad" stick to him.
 
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