2016 Election Thread Part Deux

#10,551
#10,551
volinbham said:
Turnout vs early voting vs ground game vs cross-overs.

Both sides have advantages and disadvantages across these issues.

It is close and hard to say which factors will outweigh which other factors.

The odds are with Clinton.
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I would have agreed with you until very recently. I think a combination of factors have changed the paradigm into favoring Trump:

The Poedstra emails (and the hits just keep on coming)

The renewed FBI investigation (and although the Clinton campaign is trying to downplay that, it's having an impact)

The reports the FBI is having an internal conflict over the way the case was handled

The Clinton Foundation and pay for play giving the appearance of the shady dealings the Clintons are involved in. (even though it may not just be an appearance)

The complete and utter media bias in her favor. Americans by and large are a peculiar bunch and the obvious bias and complicit cover up of her actions the media has shown has angered plenty of people. And in anger, they turn away from her. Believe it or not people are actually tuning in to this election more so than ones in the past and such actions of attempting to cover for her turn people off in a big way.

Just too many compounding factors coming to light at once to not make a significant impact on the overall situation. Diehard Hillary supporters are going to vote for her regardless just like diehard Trump supporters will vote for him. But I don't think you're going to see as many people holding their nose to vote against him as you are the opposite.

Hillary has no more weapons to toss at Trump at this point and she can't use the "I'm not Trump" argument since she has shown herself to be no better in that regard as more and more of the scandals are coming to light. Too many for a significant portion of the voter base to continue ignoring.
 
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#10,552
#10,552
volinbham said:
I do but that is irrelevant to suggesting 98% is an accurate probability of Clinton winning.

Even if 10 of 10 models all thought Clinton would win that wouldn't equate to a 98% chance she wins. It depends on the probabilities within the models and most are at 60-70% chance.
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She doesn't need any upsets to win. Trump needs multiple. I don't know all of the most recent polls for all 50 states, but I would consider trumps odds as extremely low based on every electoral map I've seen.
 
#10,554
#10,554
Volstylexx said:
Volnation is in the minority on this. His mid 50's approval rating as a 2 term president is on par with republican's beloved Reagan.

You may hate him, but you're in a minority in this country with that view.
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He was voted the "Worst President Ever" just a year ago.

Obama's approval numbers in the 50's is all a lie too. A more accurate number would be in the lower 20s. They don't want that POS failure of a President to look bad when he finally leaves Office for good.

He can go play his golf game now & nobody will care about him hopefully ever again.
 
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#10,555
#10,555
W.TN.Orange Blood said:
He was voted the "Worst President Ever" just a year ago.

Obama's approval numbers in the 50's is all a lie too. A more accurate number would be in the lower 20s. They don't want that POS failure of a President to look bad when he finally leaves Office for good.

He can go play his golf game now & nobody will care about him hopefully ever again.
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Oh come on this is just delusional
 
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#10,557
#10,557
W.TN.Orange Blood said:
He was voted the "Worst President Ever" just a year ago.

Obama's approval numbers in the 50's is all a lie too. A more accurate number would be in the lower 20s. They don't want that POS failure of a President to look bad when he finally leaves Office for good.

He can go play his golf game now & nobody will care about him hopefully ever again.
Click to expand...

You should try getting out of your own social circle sometime. Or at least learn that they don't reflect society as a whole
 
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#10,558
#10,558
Vol8188 said:
She doesn't need any upsets to win. Trump needs multiple. I don't know all of the most recent polls for all 50 states, but I would consider trumps odds as extremely low based on every electoral map I've seen.
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Not the issue - you said the 98% probability from HuffPo was correct. I said you don't understand probabilities and you continue to show you don't.

Yes she has better odds of winning - no one disputes that. Claiming those odds are 98% since most models show she is likely to win is an incorrect interpretation of probability analysis.

She does not have a 98% probability of winning. The best estimates show she has between 60 and 70% probability of winning
 
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#10,559
#10,559
Grand Vol said:
I would have agreed with you until very recently. I think a combination of factors have changed the paradigm into favoring Trump:

The Poedstra emails (and the hits just keep on coming)

The renewed FBI investigation (and although the Clinton campaign is trying to downplay that, it's having an impact)

The reports the FBI is having an internal conflict over the way the case was handled

The Clinton Foundation and pay for play giving the appearance of the shady dealings the Clintons are involved in. (even though it may not just be an appearance)

The complete and utter media bias in her favor. Americans by and large are a peculiar bunch and the obvious bias and complicit cover up of her actions the media has shown has angered plenty of people. And in anger, they turn away from her. Believe it or not people are actually tuning in to this election more so than ones in the past and such actions of attempting to cover for her turn people off in a big way.

Just too many compounding factors coming to light at once to not make a significant impact on the overall situation. Diehard Hillary supporters are going to vote for her regardless just like diehard Trump supporters will vote for him. But I don't think you're going to see as many people holding their nose to vote against him as you are the opposite.

Hillary has no more weapons to toss at Trump at this point and she can't use the "I'm not Trump" argument since she has shown herself to be no better in that regard as more and more of the scandals are coming to light. Too many for a significant portion of the voter base to continue ignoring.
Click to expand...

She'll still win and I'm betting popular by about 2% and EC by at least 25.
 
#10,560
#10,560
I think Trump wins. Barring something unforseen - which is quite possible/likely - I think the recent momentum carries him through Tues.
 
#10,562
#10,562
too little, too late and early voting will stop Trump IMHO.

I'd like to be proven wrong. Would prefer the cleansing fire of a Trump presidency to the political corruption system entrenchment of a Clinton presidency.

Time for a reset.
 
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#10,563
#10,563
golfballs said:
I think Trump wins. Barring something unforseen - which is quite possible/likely - I think the recent momentum carries him through Tues.
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Possible is the millions & millions of stupid low information Democratic voters who are nothing but sheep & are being told who to vote for because those idiot voters rely on their friends to tell them.
 
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#10,564
#10,564
golfballs said:
I think Trump wins. Barring something unforseen - which is quite possible/likely - I think the recent momentum carries him through Tues.
Click to expand...

Trump momentum is a false narrative pushed by the right. Just like Romney had all the momentum in 2012, with Republican proclamations on election day that he would be the clear winner.

Clinton wins with +300 Electoral
 
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#10,565
#10,565
Volstylexx said:
Trump momentum is a false narrative pushed by the right. Just like Romney had all the momentum in 2012, with Republican proclamations on election day that he would be the clear winner.

Clinton wins with +300 Electoral
Click to expand...

It isn't a false narrative at all. It may not be enough for him to win but he does have movement up and Clinton does have movement down. Virtually every election analyst acknowledges these facts.
 
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#10,566
#10,566
Grand Vol said:
I would have agreed with you until very recently. I think a combination of factors have changed the paradigm into favoring Trump:

The Poedstra emails (and the hits just keep on coming)

The renewed FBI investigation (and although the Clinton campaign is trying to downplay that, it's having an impact)

The reports the FBI is having an internal conflict over the way the case was handled

The Clinton Foundation and pay for play giving the appearance of the shady dealings the Clintons are involved in. (even though it may not just be an appearance)

The complete and utter media bias in her favor. Americans by and large are a peculiar bunch and the obvious bias and complicit cover up of her actions the media has shown has angered plenty of people. And in anger, they turn away from her. Believe it or not people are actually tuning in to this election more so than ones in the past and such actions of attempting to cover for her turn people off in a big way.

Just too many compounding factors coming to light at once to not make a significant impact on the overall situation. Diehard Hillary supporters are going to vote for her regardless just like diehard Trump supporters will vote for him. But I don't think you're going to see as many people holding their nose to vote against him as you are the opposite.

Hillary has no more weapons to toss at Trump at this point and she can't use the "I'm not Trump" argument since she has shown herself to be no better in that regard as more and more of the scandals are coming to light. Too many for a significant portion of the voter base to continue ignoring.
Click to expand...

In a lot of ways Democrats now are no different from the old yellow dog Democrats of years ago - different people, but just as stubbornly set in their ways, and just as undeterred by fact. I don't think any of these revelations change them.

That leaves the rational, open-minded Democrats, the independents, and the anti-Trump Republicans to be swayed. The question is how many of those are there, and how many of those voted for Clinton before her crooked past made the headlines ... again.
 
#10,567
#10,567
AM64 said:
In a lot of ways Democrats now are no different from the old yellow dog Democrats of years ago - different people, but just as stubbornly set in their ways, and just as undeterred by fact. I don't think any of these revelations change them.

That leaves the rational, open-minded Democrats, the independents, and the anti-Trump Republicans to be swayed. The question is how many of those are there, and how many of those voted for Clinton before her crooked past made the headlines ... again.
Click to expand...

I have a lot of Dem friends and they completely ignore the stuff with Clinton. "It's just some emails - big deal".

They aren't necessarily big fans of her but are completely minimizing the stories about her and the CF.
 
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#10,568
#10,568
volinbham said:
It isn't a false narrative at all. It may not be enough for him to win but he does have movement up and Clinton does have movement down. Virtually every election analyst acknowledges these facts.
Click to expand...

We disagree. His movement up is within his own base. He's not gaining traction outside of that, meaning he has a ceiling to his support at or near 44% [consistent with all public polling- he's never eclipsed that mark]

The question becomes does enthusiasm for Clinton drop enough that Trump's ceiling is sufficient to win key states? All the numbers say that's unlikely.

1/3 of the early vote was already banked before last Friday's news.

There's also numbers indicating last weeks news helped Clinton with her base [she raised 11 million online in the 24 hours following the FBI letter- the most of any day in her campaign]

The polls are indicating a swing in enthusiasm within the candidates' bases- not a shift in voters switching candidates. If trump doesn't bring new people in he can't win.
 
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#10,572
#10,572
Volstylexx said:
Trump momentum is a false narrative pushed by the right. Just like Romney had all the momentum in 2012, with Republican proclamations on election day that he would be the clear winner.

Clinton wins with +300 Electoral
Click to expand...

Can't tell if youre actually serious or if trolling
 
#10,574
#10,574
Volstylexx said:
Trump momentum is a false narrative pushed by the right. Just like Romney had all the momentum in 2012, with Republican proclamations on election day that he would be the clear winner.

Clinton wins with +300 Electoral
Click to expand...

Lol... So partisan all the time. Every metric out there has the race tightening. I think the electoral map makes it very difficult for Trump, but to call it a false narrative is just wishful thinking.
 
#10,575
#10,575
Volstylexx said:
We disagree. His movement up is within his own base. He's not gaining traction outside of that, meaning he has a ceiling to his support at or near 44% [consistent with all public polling- he's never eclipsed that mark]

The question becomes does enthusiasm for Clinton drop enough that Trump's ceiling is sufficient to win key states? All the numbers say that's unlikely.

1/3 of the early vote was already banked before last Friday's news.

There's also numbers indicating last weeks news helped Clinton with her base [she raised 11 million online in the 24 hours following the FBI letter- the most of any day in her campaign]

The polls are indicating a swing in enthusiasm within the candidates' bases- not a shift in voters switching candidates. If trump doesn't bring new people in he can't win.
Click to expand...

This is still momentum. You seem to confuse momentum with sufficient momentum to win. There is no doubt that the momentum has swung to Trump. That is not a false narrative. As I've stated repeatedly, that momentum shift may not be enough to gain him the victory and likely isn't.
 
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