2016 Election Thread Part Deux

#10,528
#10,528
I don't see Trump winning..Dem ground game is the difference but she is going in as a weak and unpopular president
 
#10,530
#10,530
SpaceCoastVol said:
Maybe. She will destroy the country. Or perhaps we could just cut out the middleman and go right to sharia laws since they will be footing the bills and getting the access.

She's pure evil.
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"Hillary=sharia"

Is as dumb as liberals claiming trump would reinstitute slavery.
 
#10,533
#10,533
SpaceCoastVol said:
She is in the pocket of the Saudis. Yeah a little hyperbolic, but the point is that she is bought and paid for. She is beholding to them.
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What president hasn't been? Despite knowledge of their involvement with 9/11 and Bush's tough talk, he walked around holding their hands and calling them our ally
 
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#10,534
#10,534
05_never_again said:
This election has been fascinating.

It's akin to a team being about a 2 TD underdog, at home, and has kept the game close into the 4th quarter despite making some mistakes of their own. Early in the 4th they get a pick 6 that sends the crowd into delirium. That underdog team is Trump.
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More like late in the 4th, the opposing team (TX A&M has the ball) running for the endzone for the sure win.

Can Trump catch up and knock the ball out the back for a touchback and then drive the field and score?

EVERYTHING has to go right for Trump to win. Can they? Sure. Will they? Statistically unlikely.
 
#10,538
#10,538
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#10,539
#10,539
I really think that the Dems think they have it in the bag with the way they keep spinning the polls and won't vote, which might keep the election close. That being said I'm seriously thinking of not voting for the first time in my life. I don't want either to be elected president and I don't want any incumbent to be re-elected either, which despite my efforts in the past, it seems to be impossible to vote anyone out.

Signed,
Disgusted Voter and Taxpayer
 
#10,541
#10,541
I think this could be a real nail-biter. The enthusiasm for Clinton is just so low in the Democratic party, once you get past a core group of women. It just feels like turn out for her is not going to be that great, whereas the anti Clinton vote for Trump is going to be pretty huge.
 
#10,542
#10,542
VolStrom said:
I really think that the Dems think they have it in the bag with the way they keep spinning the polls and won't vote, which might keep the election close. That being said I'm seriously thinking of not voting for the first time in my life. I don't want either to be elected president and I don't want any incumbent to be re-elected either, which despite my efforts in the past, it seems to be impossible to vote anyone out.

Signed,
Disgusted Voter and Taxpayer
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Well sorry- this is the real world and one of them is getting elected.
 
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#10,543
#10,543
lawgator1 said:
I think this could be a real nail-biter. The enthusiasm for Clinton is just so low in the Democratic party, once you get past a core group of sexist women. It just feels like turn out for her is not going to be that great, whereas the anti Clinton vote for Trump is going to be pretty huge.
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Fify
 
#10,544
#10,544
lawgator1 said:
I think this could be a real nail-biter. The enthusiasm for Clinton is just so low in the Democratic party, once you get past a core group of women. It just feels like turn out for her is not going to be that great, whereas the anti Clinton vote for Trump is going to be pretty huge.
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Turnout is a big question mark. It renders polls largely worthless except to provide some kind of directional indicator
 
#10,545
#10,545
lawgator1 said:
I think this could be a real nail-biter. The enthusiasm for Clinton is just so low in the Democratic party, once you get past a core group of women. It just feels like turn out for her is not going to be that great, whereas the anti Clinton vote for Trump is going to be pretty huge.
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golfballs said:
Turnout is a big question mark. It renders polls largely worthless except to provide some kind of directional indicator
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Turnout vs early voting vs ground game vs cross-overs.

Both sides have advantages and disadvantages across these issues.

It is close and hard to say which factors will outweigh which other factors.

The odds are with Clinton.
 
#10,546
#10,546
Vol8188 said:
Very well. Do you understand the electoral college?
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I do but that is irrelevant to suggesting 98% is an accurate probability of Clinton winning.

Even if 10 of 10 models all thought Clinton would win that wouldn't equate to a 98% chance she wins. It depends on the probabilities within the models and most are at 60-70% chance.
 
#10,547
#10,547
volinbham said:
Turnout vs early voting vs ground game vs cross-overs.

Both sides have advantages and disadvantages across these issues.

It is close and hard to say which factors will outweigh which other factors.

The odds are with Clinton.
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From an electoral standpoint I'm giving Hillary a very slight edge. Polls are lagging indicators. Barring any changes, the momentum is w Trump. It's a very close race and it depends on who shows up. Even if the FBI thing doesn't change people's minds, it could keep would be Clinton voters from showing up which might be enough for Trump
 
#10,548
#10,548
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#10,549
#10,549
volinbham said:
I do but that is irrelevant to suggesting 98% is an accurate probability of Clinton winning.

Even if 10 of 10 models all thought Clinton would win that wouldn't equate to a 98% chance she wins. It depends on the probabilities within the models and most are at 60-70% chance.
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I give 538 some credit. They try to be smart about predicting the outcome. Even though they actually have a poor track record in other things they prognosticate. They have some success in presidential elections, but it's over an extremely short sample size. This election is unlike any in a lifetime if not more. And the limitations of its model will be exposed at some point

"Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance."

What kind of certainty is there in the underlying polling, and assumed turnout/demographics?
 
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#10,550
#10,550
W.TN.Orange Blood said:
I don't know why anyone would believe or listen to Obama anyway for the simple fact he lies anytime his mouth is open & speaking.
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Volnation is in the minority on this. His mid 50's approval rating as a 2 term president is on par with republican's beloved Reagan.

You may hate him, but you're in a minority in this country with that view.
 
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