2016 Election Thread Part Deux

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Larry Sabato's also moved all 13 swing states moved toward Hillary.

Our belief is that, given the high level of party polarization existing in 2016, the election wouldn’t necessarily resemble the massive landslides of 1964 (Lyndon Johnson-Barry Goldwater) or 1972 (Richard Nixon-George McGovern). Instead of the winner topping 60% as in 1964 and 1972, it is more likely Clinton would garner less than 55% of the two-party vote.

Polls may be ephemeral and sometimes wildly inaccurate, yet surveys (and demographics) are the only hard data we have this far out from the election. The polling averages for a Clinton-Trump face-off show roughly a 10 percentage point lead for the Democrat. RealClearPolitics has Clinton up about 11 points and HuffPost Pollster gives Clinton a lead of about nine points. This kind of Democratic advantage, if properly distributed, would produce an Electoral College result similar to, or greater than, Barack Obama’s 2008 total of 365 electoral votes to John McCain’s 173 (Obama won the national popular vote by 7.3 points). Again, this suggests that one or more states currently rated Likely Republican (Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri) might slip into the Democratic column.

Trump supporters and some independent analysts assert that his appeal to many blue-collar whites in Rust Belt states (such as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) could pull these states’ electoral votes into the Republican column. The problem is, there is little evidence that the non-college voters supporting Trump in the primaries are defectors from the Democrats; most have been backing GOP candidates fairly consistently, so the net addition for Trump could be small. Nor do we buy the theory that increased Republican primary turnout this year means Trump is going to bring out millions more white and primarily male voters that weren’t excited by John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. Maybe there will be higher white male voter participation, but there will probably be augmented, heavily Democratic minority turnout to balance it. Additionally, some white voters, particularly those with higher incomes and levels of education who may have voted for Romney, might have a hard time pulling the lever for Trump.

This is important to know.
Now, let’s suppose the Republican nominee is Ted Cruz and not Donald Trump. How much difference would it make in November? Probably, a Clinton-Cruz contest would be closer. RealClearPolitics’ polling average has Clinton defeating Cruz by about three points, while HuffPost’s average has Clinton winning by about four points. Unquestionably, Cruz would have a better chance of overcoming a gap of three or four points than Trump would of bridging a 10 or 11-point difference. At the least, Cruz could firm up the GOP’s chances in Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri, and he could turn some of our Leans Democratic states back into Toss-ups.

However, it’s just as possible, maybe probable, that the party would repair itself by 2020. Four years after the Goldwater debacle, the Republicans elected a president. Four years after the McGovern disaster, the Democrats elected a president. Odds are, there will be no need for a bugler playing taps for the GOP this time either. Somehow, though, Republicans will have to find ways to heal the deep rifts in their party, while becoming more mainstream and accommodating to this century’s American electorate. It will take far more than another “autopsy report” like the one in 2013 to accomplish this.

Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters
 

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In trying to decide what "natural born" actually meant a few years ago, I began to realize that you cannot interpret words and deeds and customs of the past with today's language and custom. For example, you have to judge the actions of people in the past in the context of custom of the time. "Natural born" apparently implied closer ties to the country of origin than simple citizenship, and it was still probably somewhat nebulous and even difficult to put in words in the late 1700's without eliminating true patriots in a very new country.

I wouldn't have a problem with it eliminating Trump or Sanders or anyone else. You might even ask whether with another generation Sanders would consider socialism a reasonable concept or whether Obama would in Argentina have used the pick and choose what works for you comment regarding communism and capitalism.

Very interesting argument. I'm curious to see if there were ever writings from the founders on this subject; I can see why they would have wanted to temper any potential foreign influence in a fledgling nation, especially one that came to be as America did. I doubt they exist or I probably would have heard about it amidst the birther movements, but that still leaves the central mystery regarding what "natural-born" means. If the Supreme Court weighs in, I would wager they'll take the more liberal interpretation.

Food for thought, though. If the child of illegal immigrants becomes a contender for the office in a few decades, it will be very interesting to see how that is resolved.
 
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Larry Sabato's also moved all 13 swing states moved toward Hillary.







This is important to know.




Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters

The polls are very worrying. We can talk all day about how early it is, but the data shows a consistent trend, and one that seems to be worsening at that. Trump has been talking about how he could put NY in play, but trails Clinton 53-33 in the newest poll - just a smidgen better than "New York values" Cruz at 53-32. Kasich trails 46-41. What exactly is going to reverse this trend other than a national tragedy, economic collapse, or catastrophic Clinton scandal? And Obama's approval ratings are above .500 again, which can't be anything but good news for HRC.
 
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The polls are very worrying. We can talk all day about how early it is, but the data shows a consistent trend, and one that seems to be worsening at that. Trump has been talking about how he could put NY in play, but trails Clinton 53-33 in the newest poll - just a smidgen better than "New York values" Cruz at 53-32. Kasich trails 46-41. What exactly is going to reverse this trend other than a national tragedy, economic collapse, or catastrophic Clinton scandal? And Obama's approval ratings are above .500 again, which can't be anything but good news for HRC.

Just proves that an avg of 50% of Americans are clueless and are complete idiots. So if they want more of the same, then vote HiLIARy 2016.
 
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The polls are very worrying. We can talk all day about how early it is, but the data shows a consistent trend, and one that seems to be worsening at that. Trump has been talking about how he could put NY in play, but trails Clinton 53-33 in the newest poll - just a smidgen better than "New York values" Cruz at 53-32. Kasich trails 46-41. What exactly is going to reverse this trend other than a national tragedy, economic collapse, or catastrophic Clinton scandal? And Obama's approval ratings are above .500 again, which can't be anything but good news for HRC.

These polls aren't worrying they're damning. The fact that either Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will be POTUS show we are in an irrevocable decline.

It's time for those that can to make their nut, hide it and treat most of the rest of the population like they deserve, with complete distain and contempt. Take care of your own and piss on everyone else.
 
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Very interesting argument. I'm curious to see if there were ever writings from the founders on this subject; I can see why they would have wanted to temper any potential foreign influence in a fledgling nation, especially one that came to be as America did. I doubt they exist or I probably would have heard about it amidst the birther movements, but that still leaves the central mystery regarding what "natural-born" means. If the Supreme Court weighs in, I would wager they'll take the more liberal interpretation.

Food for thought, though. If the child of illegal immigrants becomes a contender for the office in a few decades, it will be very interesting to see how that is resolved.

I would certainly hope that we clear up that issue before we are faced with it, but we very likely won't address it proactively. I don't understand the anchor baby concept anyway for illegal aliens. It should follow the fruit of the poison tree logic - their being here illegally should void US citizenship for the children. It's gaining something positive from an illegal act, and the kids still have Mexican or whatever nationality; they aren't stateless like the supporters would want you to believe. Otherwise, Cruz wouldn't have US citizenship regardless of his mother's status. That in itself should discourage the illegal invasion.

Emerich de Vattel wrote “The Law of Nations,” in 1758; it includes this passage:

“The citizens are the members of the civil society; bound to this society by certain duties, and subject to its authority, they equally participate in its advantages. The natives, or natural-born citizens, are those born in the country, of parents who are citizens. As the society cannot exist and perpetuate itself otherwise than by the children of the citizens, those children naturally follow the condition of their fathers, and succeed to all their rights. The society is supposed to desire this, in consequence of what it owes to its own preservation; and it is presumed, as matter of course, that each citizen, on entering into society, reserves to his children the right of becoming members of it. The country of the fathers is therefore that of the children; and these become true citizens merely by their tacit consent. We shall soon see whether, on their coming to the years of discretion, they may renounce their right, and what they owe to the society in which they were born. I say, that, in order to be of the country, it is necessary that a person be born of a father who is a citizen; for, if he is born there of a foreigner, it will be only the place of his birth, and not his country.”

Probably some of our early statesmen and founders would have been familiar with that. The interesting part is that he starts with parents who are citizens and then somehow ends with "father who is a citizen." Following either thought would have precluded Cruz and Obama as president. These days we just always seem to make the rules on the fly when confronted with a problem rather than through real deliberation. Sometimes simple bluster and failure to act wins the day.
 
The pro-life movement has always presented itself as one that believes in rehabilitation, not punishment. I'm not completely opposed to the practice of abortion myself, so I couldn't say if these are generally sincerely held beliefs or just the position taken to make it politically viable. From a legal standpoint, you're right - it would merit some sort of punishment, but moreso for the abortion provider than the woman. I'm not sure how such a proposed system would deal with back alley abortions, or how that would even be criminally proven.

What Trump said was the pro-life position taken to its logical extreme, but it's just not what most pro-lifers believe in my experience. They see the pregnant woman as a victim of an excruciatingly complex situation.

Which is a ridiculous position to take for pro-life people. It is either murder or it isn't. It isn't the type of thing that can have a mushy or grey area. Since pro-life supporters frame it as murder, it only follows that the women ought to be punished (and quite severely).

Note: When personhood begins, thus subsequently when it becomes murder, is a different issue entirely with respect to a mushy/grey area. However, once that line has been established and murder the crime, the grey/mushy area vanishes.
 
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Which is a ridiculous position to take for pro-life people. It is either murder or it isn't. It isn't the type of thing that can have a mushy or grey area. Since pro-life supporters frame it as murder, it only follows that the women ought to be punished (and quite severely).

Note: When personhood begins, thus subsequently when it becomes murder, is a different issue entirely with respect to a mushy/grey area. However, once that line has been established and murder the crime, the grey/mushy area vanishes.

I prefer to punish the abortionist. In every other instance where a prohibited procedure is performed, it is the practitioner that is punished, not the patient.
 
I prefer to punish the abortionist. In every other instance where a prohibited procedure is performed, it is the practitioner that is punished, not the patient.

You are going to have to explain the reasoning here. If I decide to kill my wife and hire you as the hitman, should the police arrest you and not me?
 
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You are going to have to explain the reasoning here. If I decide to kill my wife and hire you as the hitman, should the police arrest you and not me?

If I pay you for a motel room appendectomy, you'll be charged for practicing without a license, and I'll just be left with a nasty scar.
 
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If I pay you for a motel room appendectomy, you'll be charged for practicing without a license, and I'll just be left with a nasty scar.

I see you dismissed my question.

I will still answer your question though. With your analogy, my autonomous person acted freely in an economic exchange (albeit a shady and unwise health procedure to myself).

With abortion, once a person or the law grants personhood status to the fetus, it be comes murder. No different than if I pulled out my Colt .357 Magnum and put a bullet between your eyes. Your analogy breaks down on consent/autonomy and murder vs health procedure to oneself.
 
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I see you dismissed my question.

I will still answer your question though. With your analogy, my autonomous person acted freely in an economic exchange (albeit a shady and unwise health procedure to myself).

With abortion, once a person or the law grants personhood status to the fetus, it be comes murder. No different than if I pulled out my Colt .357 Magnum and put a bullet between your eyes. Your analogy breaks down on consent/autonomy and murder vs health procedure to oneself.

I wasn't dismissing anything. While I would have no problem charging a woman for paying someone to kill her unborn child, I'm not naive enough to believe that we're ever going to get there.

But, if we charge the practitioner, then at least one very critical link in the chain is removed. The harder that elective abortion is to come by, the better.
 
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I wasn't dismissing anything. While I would have no problem charging a woman for paying someone to kill her unborn child, I'm not naive enough to believe that we're ever going to get there.

But, if we charge the practitioner, then at least one very critical link in the chain is removed. The harder that elective abortion is to come by, the better.

It's freakin' murder! It's like pro-life proponents don't understand the gravity of the concepts, ideas, and words they use.

As someone who is pro-choice, I think the idea of "never going to get there" is also dumb. IF it becomes law, the woman has to be punished severely. To do otherwise would be absurd. The problem is getting to the point that we as a society can establish a strict line of personhood for fetuses. Once there, the punishment naturally follows.
 
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It's freakin' murder! It's like pro-life proponents don't understand the gravity of the concepts, ideas, and words they use.

As someone who is pro-choice, I think the idea of "never going to get there" is also dumb. IF it becomes law, the woman has to be punished severely. To do otherwise would be absurd. The problem is getting to the point that we as a society can establish a strict line of personhood for fetuses. Once there, the punishment naturally follows.

The law would be whatever the legislators want it to be.
 
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It's freakin' murder! It's like pro-life proponents don't understand the gravity of the concepts, ideas, and words they use.

As someone who is pro-choice, I think the idea of "never going to get there" is also dumb. IF it becomes law, the woman has to be punished severely. To do otherwise would be absurd. The problem is getting to the point that we as a society can establish a strict line of personhood for fetuses. Once there, the punishment naturally follows.

I don't disagree with you. But this is an elephant that needs to be eaten. You can't swallow it whole, so it's best to figure out which bites to take first.
 
Of course it's warped. If you're going to claim abortion is murder, it can only follow that the mother is also complicit and should be punished severely.

The reason why many pro-lifers seemingly irrationally claim otherwise is because they're being pragmatic. They're trying to make anti-abortion legislation palatable to the largest amount of people possible. If you take the hardline idealist approach that abortion is murder and requires the punishment of all involved you will be far less likely to achieve any significant anti-abortion legislation.
 
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Of course it's warped. If you're going to claim abortion is murder, it can only follow that the mother is also complicit and should be punished severely.

The reason why many pro-lifers seemingly irrationally claim otherwise is because they're being pragmatic. They're trying to make anti-abortion legislation palatable to the largest amount of people possible. If you take the hardline idealist approach that abortion is murder and requires the punishment of all involved you will be far less likely to achieve any significant anti-abortion legislation.

Basically this. I don't have to be completely comfortable with the approach to accept the fact that it's the most likely to be successful.
 
I prefer to punish the abortionist. In every other instance where a prohibited procedure is performed, it is the practitioner that is punished, not the patient.


Punish the practitioner for what? If he/she is licensed and the procedure is legal, what is the crime? Maybe you should be going after the Supreme Court as the "guilty" party. Would you still think the same if there was proof that the brain was undeveloped and the baby could not survive? What about an adult on life support whose brain was so injured that life without machines was impossible? Murder or the inevitable if the plug is pulled? Zika??? Simplistic views in a complex world don't work. And then there is that freedom of and from religion principle.
 
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Of course it's warped. If you're going to claim abortion is murder, it can only follow that the mother is also complicit and should be punished severely.

The reason why many pro-lifers seemingly irrationally claim otherwise is because they're being pragmatic. They're trying to make anti-abortion legislation palatable to the largest amount of people possible. If you take the hardline idealist approach that abortion is murder and requires the punishment of all involved you will be far less likely to achieve any significant anti-abortion legislation.

I disagree that it is a "hardline idealism".

If proponents use the reasoning of murder to outlaw abortion, then the punishment naturally follows. Unless you are suggesting either: (1) pro-life proponents think their fellow citizens will be too stupid to connect the obvious dots or (2) pro-life proponents could, on the whole, keep their desires to punish (appropriately) women who engage in abortion a secret as legislation becomes closer to law.

Or, they play both sides of the fence by stating it is murder (to attract those who will respond to such a method) while believing it is more of an unseemly medical procedure that seems wrong/immoral, but can't really put their finger on a more articulate reason/grounding.
 
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PKT does bring up a pretty huge disconnect I myself have often tried to figure out from the pro-life perspective. If you believe that abortion is murder, no different than you shooting your neighbor in cold blood, then surely it follows that you would believe the mother should be persecuted for killing the child, whether she paid a doctor to do it or she drank some home made gut rot. She should be put in prison just like serial killers and gang bangers, or, if you believe in the death penalty, be put to death for her crime.. right? Is that not the logical conclusion if you do believe it is murder?

If you're trying to make an argument from pragmatism, it does not work in favor of the pro-life side. The pro-life argument has to be made from a moral perspective, and again, if that is the case and abortion is in fact murder, you should be consistent in your beliefs at the very least regarding punishment.
 
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PKT does bring up a pretty huge disconnect I myself have often tried to figure out from the pro-life perspective. If you believe that abortion is murder, no different than you shooting your neighbor in cold blood, then surely it follows that you would believe the mother should be persecuted for killing the child, whether she paid a doctor to do it or she drank some home made gut rot. She should be put in prison just like serial killers and gang bangers, or, if you believe in the death penalty, be put to death for her crime.. right? Is that not the logical conclusion if you do believe it is murder?

If you're trying to make an argument from pragmatism, it does not work in favor of the pro-life side. The pro-life argument has to be made from a moral perspective, and again, if that is the case and abortion is in fact murder, you should be consistent in your beliefs at the very least regarding punishment.

I agree. I've heard similar arguments for not believing in rape or incest exceptions. It may seem cruel, but it's the logically consistent position.

This argument is in effect saying that the life of the fetus is not equivalent to that of a person by law, which conveys the exact opposite message that the pro-life movement is trying to state. The entire abortion debate is just a labyrinth of arbitrary definitions, but that's because both sides have to make concessions somewhere.
 
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Is it murder.. yeah.. probably. If you leave it alone it will be a human being.
Should the woman be able to terminate the pregnancy.. absolutely.

I don't see how anybody can say that a woman having an abortion is the same as walking up to someone and shooting them.
The law already has different kinds of murder... with different kinds of punishment. All they have to do is add another. Hell.. congress could write a bill to say whatever they like.
They could punish just the one that performs it.. punish both... have the punishment harsh.. light.. whatever. That is of course if it ever came to that.. which it won't.
 

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