2012 Schedule

#52
#52
pualsline said:
Teams are in order in each bracket from highest percentage to lowest

>75% chance of victory
Troy, Georgia State, Akron, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

51%-74% chance of victory
N.C. State, Missouri

26%-50% chance of victory
Florida, Georgia

25%>

South Carolina, Alabama
Click to expand...


just a further breakdown of this...

Greater than 75% chance for 6 games
51%-74% for 2 games
26%-50% for 2 games
less than 25% for 2 games

Troy .95
Georgia State .93
Akron .93
Kentucky .87
Mississippi State .84
Vanderbilt .75
N.C. State .65
Missouri .52
Florida .43
Georgia .33
South Carolina .20
Alabama .5

with this break down we have over a 50% chance of winning 8 of our games. (from an individual per game stand point)


So here is the probability (according to me) at being undefeated at any point throughout the season
Sept. 1 - North Carolina State 65%
Sept. 8 - Georgia State 60.45%
Sept. 15 - Florida* 25.99%
Sept. 22 - Akron 24.17%
Sept. 29 - at Georgia* 7.98%
Oct. 13 - at Mississippi State* 6.7%
Oct. 20 - Alabama* 0.34%
Oct. 27 - at South Carolina* .00067%
Nov. 3 - Troy .00064%
Nov. 10 - Missouri* .00033%
Nov. 17 - at Vanderbilt* .00025%
Nov. 24 - Kentucky* .00022%

Also, with these numbers one could expect the over/under to be set at 7.5 wins on the season with the slight over being to our advantage for 8 wins (7.55)

With all that being, said if you believe the original probabilities are correct the chances of winning 8 games is 48.4%
 
Last edited:
#53
#53
pualsline said:
just a further breakdown of this...

Greater than 75% chance for 6 games
51%-74% for 2 games
26%-50% for 2 games
less than 25% for 2 games

Troy .95
Georgia State .93
Akron .93
Kentucky .87
Mississippi State .84
Vanderbilt .75
N.C. State .65
Missouri .52
Florida .43
Georgia .33
South Carolina .20
Alabama .5

with this break down we have over a 50% chance of winning 8 of our games. (from an individual per game stand point)


So here is the probability (according to me) at being undefeated at any point throughout the season
Sept. 1 - North Carolina State 65%
Sept. 8 - Georgia State 60.45%
Sept. 15 - Florida* 25.99%
Sept. 22 - Akron 24.17%
Sept. 29 - at Georgia* 7.98%
Oct. 13 - at Mississippi State* 6.7%
Oct. 20 - Alabama* 0.34%
Oct. 27 - at South Carolina* .00067%
Nov. 3 - Troy .00064%
Nov. 10 - Missouri* .00033%
Nov. 17 - at Vanderbilt* .00025%
Nov. 24 - Kentucky* .00022%

Also, with these numbers one could expect the over/under to be set at 7.5 wins on the season with the slight over being to our advantage for 8 wins (7.55)

With all that being, said if you believe the original probabilities are correct the chances of winning 8 games is 48.4%
Click to expand...

Even with a new DC I stick to these odds
 
#54
#54
pualsline said:
Teams are in order in each bracket from highest percentage to lowest

>75% chance of victory
Troy, Georgia State, Akron, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

51%-74% chance of victory
N.C. State, Missouri

26%-50% chance of victory
Florida, Georgia

25%>

South Carolina, Alabama
Click to expand...

Not sure where you get your percentages but they are way out of whack....Miss St should beat us...We haven't EVER stopped a spread option offense yet...NC State could beat us...We haven't won in the Georgia dome since moby dick was a minnow....Georgia should beat us easily, So should Alabama...Florida is a toss up although they seem to play the game of the season when they play us so I am not confident in that one until I see it for myself.....USCe, Loss....Mizzou i am not sure of, they will be coming in wanting to prove they belong in the SEC...the others should be easy wins...Vandy will give us a hard time but We should beat them again...I see 6-7 wins if We get lucky and stay healthy....Dooley is coaching so anything can happen.
 
#55
#55
VOLnMiami said:
Not sure where you get your percentages but they are way out of whack....Miss St should beat us...We haven't EVER stopped a spread option offense yet...NC State could beat us...We haven't won in the Georgia dome since moby dick was a minnow....Georgia should beat us easily, So should Alabama...Florida is a toss up although they seem to play the game of the season when they play us so I am not confident in that one until I see it for myself.....USCe, Loss....Mizzou i am not sure of, they will be coming in wanting to prove they belong in the SEC...the others should be easy wins...Vandy will give us a hard time but We should beat them again...I see 6-7 wins if We get lucky and stay healthy....Dooley is coaching so anything can happen.
Click to expand...

Individual games were just my own personal thoughts
 
#58
#58
IMO the Mizzou game could be a make or break game for us this coming season...I am quite curious to see how we match up with them.
 
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