$100 A Barrel Oil is on the Way

#751
#751
I don't know. This really is beginning to piss me off. This economy has teetered but for the most part I think has done a decent job of handling the skyrocket of gas prices. But I think it is close to a breaking point. I can't imagine it can handle prices jumping to $5 a gallon overnight. Almost everything requires transport.

On a serious note, you with a Hummer and living in Memphis, I doubt you'll be able to afford going to the UF game. Just sell me your ticket.

:thumbsup:
 
#752
#752
LOL..Im lucky enough to where gas really doesnt hurt me (thank you lord) but it is hurting alot of folks and I really don't think they are done getting there hands dirty. Folks are loosing there jobs in a fast kind of way. Im with you man, I really don't think this economy keep up at the same pace as it does today with the gas prices going up and folks loosing jobs. BTW, I would jump on a grayhound if I had to and watch the game. :)
 
#754
#754
TennTradition said:
They talk like they are pretty close...I don't know when they are going to start. I'm fairly confident it will happen, though. I'll tell them to give you a call and give you an update :p
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I thought you'd be spending time writing campaign memos pertaining to your faux cabinet position.
 
#758
#758
honestly there is no alternative fuels right now to change the prices. the reason is because all the cars are not capable of running on them. it will take years to develop ways to change coal into oil and get it into production. so i think were in for a long ride fellas.
 
#759
#759
TennTradition said:
They talk like they are pretty close...I don't know when they are going to start. I'm fairly confident it will happen, though. I'll tell them to give you a call and give you an update :p
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TT I saw you guys thread on Natural Gas Cars and was impressed, I think that will be part of the future. I would have chimed in but my pithy comments would have ruined the discussion

I am a huge fan of Natural Gas and Wind Power. Here is my crazy idea... I really want to buy a small chunk of cheap land in East Tennessee or somewhere in the mountains or on the plateau or on the border in NC (near the tail of the dragon?) where the wind blows (I hear Oak Ridge is USA's least windiest city) and put up a tower or two. Anyone know what subsidies are available? And is it even possible to compete with TVA and their cheap power? How much a tower costs? Average production per month? At least Ted Kennedy isnt a neighbor so I wouldnt have to deal with the landscape problem... or would I?

I feel like you could get a decent tower for 100K+ couple of cheap acres for 20K + other expenses. $150K total then if you got 1k in wind power revenue per month + subsidies you would be making a profit. Anyone know the numbers for real? I feel like if you bought the land and built yourself instead of leasing it out to a wind power company you would be maximizing profits, that is why I would prefer to buy and build on my own.

Comments?
 
#761
#761
VolsNSkinsFan said:
TT I saw you guys thread on Natural Gas Cars and was impressed, I think that will be part of the future. I would have chimed in but my pithy comments would have ruined the discussion

I am a huge fan of Natural Gas and Wind Power. Here is my crazy idea... I really want to buy a small chunk of cheap land in East Tennessee or somewhere in the mountains or on the plateau or on the border in NC (near the tail of the dragon?) where the wind blows (I hear Oak Ridge is USA's least windiest city) and put up a tower or two. Anyone know what subsidies are available? And is it even possible to compete with TVA and their cheap power? How much a tower costs? Average production per month? At least Ted Kennedy isnt a neighbor so I wouldnt have to deal with the landscape problem... or would I?

I feel like you could get a decent tower for 100K+ couple of cheap acres for 20K + other expenses. $150K total then if you got 1k in wind power revenue per month + subsidies you would be making a profit. Anyone know the numbers for real? I feel like if you bought the land and built yourself instead of leasing it out to a wind power company you would be maximizing profits, that is why I would prefer to buy and build on my own.

Comments?
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I haven't looked into the capital investment in wind turbines...and what the payoff period would look like. Does TVA buy back electricity at any time of day, or just during peak periods? I am sure that you would maximize your profits by putting up your own turbines; however, you would of course the capital investment up front and the risk during operation to consider. Does TVA have some green electricity websites or something about their buyback policies?
 
#762
#762
Yea TVA does have a wind farm. Its on Buffalo Mountain near Oak Ridge... They have 29 1.8 mw turbines made by Vestas, enough to power 3800 homes. Each 1.8 mw cost over well over a million.

TVA: Wind Turbine Energy

Also I found this... TVA will purchase the entire output of a qualifying system at $0.15 per kWh through a participating power distributor, and the consumer will receive a credit for the power generated. Participation in this program is entirely up to the discretion of the power distributor. As of June 2004 there is one 20-kW wind project utilizing this program.

If you click on this link it shows that the border of NC, TN, SC, and GA has some promsing wind sites. Much higher strength than the supposed "Saudi Arabia of Wind" which is TX up thru ND.

Wind Energy Resource Atlas of the United States

I read online where one doctor tried to use his family farm near Boone NC as a wind farm, but some Smokey Moutain Act prohibits multiple towers from ruining the landscape. He was proposing a $50 million project with 30 1.8 mw.

Anyway I would think that 1 100-250 Kw wind turbine could be approved. You could sell the power to a local power company or a small town, and you can rent the tower out to cell phone companies. So a little research got me to find that a 250kw turbine will produce 300,000kw per year, then multiply that by the 15 cents TVA will give you and you get $45K a year. According to a website you can get at least $1300 a month from cell phone companies for renting your tower. Hmmm it all depends on the total cost for a 250kw turbine+tower+installation+maintenance but this can be profitable.

This guys power point presentation suggests that a 750 kw turbine costs between $650K-$900K, and produces 1,700,000 kw per year. With TVA giving you 15 cents thats $250K per year in sales, you could pay the loan off in a couple of years.

http://www.harvestcleanenergy.org/conference/HCE4/HCE4_PPTs/Wind.pdf
 
#763
#763
I wonder how you would go about insuring something like this? Renting out the tower to a cell phone company is also a great idea...assuming it doesn't interfere with dynamics of the turbine (which I don't think would happen). The only thing that would worry me is the possibility that the local utility could pull the plug, if you will, at any time unless you entered into contract with them, right?
 
#764
#764
Yea I am sure insurance isnt too bad... $300-500 a month?

The key is that 15 cents rate. If it goes down to 10 cents or 5 cents then the numbers dont work. Also I am sure dealing with the local yokels approval boards is the biggest pain.

I asked for some info on a website that sells turbines to see what the costs are. I will post any info I get.
 
#765
#765
Ok so I got an answer on total costs for a 250kw wind turbine to be built and installed is $525,000 and you can get between 350,000kw and 550,000kw per year of production. Mulltiply that by 15 cents and you get between $52,000 and $82500 per year of revenue, and without any tax incentives you could have it payed back in little over 6 years. Operating costs are 10k per year. Also you can get grants up to 30% of costs and no interest loans from th federal government.

So if you got 10 people to each throw in $10K for a deposit, you could have the loan paid off in 6 years and the rest is profit. $80K revenue-10k costs=70k profits/10 investors=7k/12 months=$583 per month. $583x12months X 15 years (remaining life of turbine)=$105K total return to each investor over 20 years.

Anyone have any cheap land for sale in the eastern part of the Cumberland Plateau?? Maybe in the Oneida/Winfield area? What are the local politics around there like too?
 
#767
#767
VolsNSkinsFan said:
Ok so I got an answer on total costs for a 250kw wind turbine to be built and installed is $525,000 and you can get between 350,000kw and 550,000kw per year of production. Mulltiply that by 15 cents and you get between $52,000 and $82500 per year of revenue, and without any tax incentives you could have it payed back in little over 6 years. Operating costs are 10k per year. Also you can get grants up to 30% of costs and no interest loans from th federal government.

So if you got 10 people to each throw in $10K for a deposit, you could have the loan paid off in 6 years and the rest is profit. $80K revenue-10k costs=70k profits/10 investors=7k/12 months=$583 per month. $583x12months X 15 years (remaining life of turbine)=$105K total return to each investor over 20 years.

Anyone have any cheap land for sale in the eastern part of the Cumberland Plateau?? Maybe in the Oneida/Winfield area? What are the local politics around there like too?
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I think it's a bit more complicated since you become a regulated entity the day you snap onto the grid.

I think the better route, and we've been toying with it, would be to tie some wind turbines to a large subdivision, where you could effectively monopolize the provision of power and basically fix your income, then trade on the grid any excess and buy in times of deficiency.

While the details are relatively large, there is a way to make all of that happen and reasonably fix your inflows without being at the whim of the market price of the commodity.
 
#769
#769
BigPapaVol said:
I think it's a bit more complicated since you become a regulated entity the day you snap onto the grid.

I think the better route, and we've been toying with it, would be to tie some wind turbines to a large subdivision, where you could effectively monopolize the provision of power and basically fix your income, then trade on the grid any excess and buy in times of deficiency.

While the details are relatively large, there is a way to make all of that happen and reasonably fix your inflows without being at the whim of the market price of the commodity.
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Very interesting...and it seems like it would be a large selling point, too (depending on the area).
 
#771
#771
BigPapaVol said:
the problem there is regulatory risk and innovation.
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I would think that in any of this that the regulatory risk is huge. It seems unlikely that local utilities/municipalities would walk into contracts...and without one, who knows what could happen. With that said, the idea is a good one. There is definitely a group that would be very attracted to this sort of set-up...and really the community could be further "greened" if that is a hard selling point in the area of interest.

What sort of innovation challenges would you foresee? Mainly just systems innovation (that's my word..I don't know what it is actually called), of making these parts work together properly? Or, do you foresee a technological innovation hurdle?
 
#772
#772
TennTradition said:
Very interesting...and it seems like it would be a large selling point, too (depending on the area).
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Yea I read that a school out in the midwest put two big ones up (over 750kw) and they were talking about how sucessful it has become.

The only problem with doing it in a neighborhood is getting it approved by everyone and having people complain about possible property values dropping, and noise, etc. But if you put it in a run down trailer park in the country, nobody would care.

Anyone know what it takes to hook up a 250kw turbine into a grid? You may need a substation nearby, or can you just sling up some wires from an existing residental or commercial hook up? I am not an electrical engineer.

Also I read online that TVA will lock in the 15 cent rate for 10 years once it goes online. But I am still not sure if that would include a midsized turbine like the 250kw or just the local hippie with his little 1kw tower in his backyard.
 
#773
#773
Be ready for regulatory hurdles and roadblocks put up by local utility companies and environmental groups. One would be a competitor and the others will pop up to save bird, views, and anything else they can think of.
 
#774
#774
volinbham said:
Be ready for regulatory hurdles and roadblocks put up by local utility companies and environmental groups. One would be a competitor and the others will pop up to save bird, views, and anything else they can think of.
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Of course... the X factor
That is why I would stay away from the Smokey mountains and stick with the cumberland plateau. According to the wind maps, the Plateau has just as good wind.

Anyone know the local politics around Campbell county or any of those counties around the KY border near I75?
 
#775
#775
BigPapaVol said:
I think the better route, and we've been toying with it, would be to tie some wind turbines to a large subdivision, where you could effectively monopolize the provision of power and basically fix your income, then trade on the grid any excess and buy in times of deficiency.
Click to expand...

VolsNSkinsFan said:
Also I read online that TVA will lock in the 15 cent rate for 10 years once it goes online. But I am still not sure if that would include a midsized turbine like the 250kw or just the local hippie with his little 1kw tower in his backyard.
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Hmmm... so lets see. Bloomberg today shows that the spot price for electricity is roughly $100/MW-hr ($100/MW-hr is equal to $.10/kW-hr). TVA can usually sell power around $.075-.08/kW-hr to the local distributors and utilities.

Bloomberg.com: Energy Prices

Now you come in and charge KUB, EPB, or whoever your local utility is $.15/kW-hr to buy unreliable power that costs anywhere from 50%-100% more than what they could pay either directly from TVA or on the open market? My question is, who is making up the difference for that extra 5 cents/kW-hr that you are paying? Are the rest of the utility customers going to essentially pay the difference? Will the gov't/TVA pay the difference? In either case, you have a redistribution of wealth based on one group selling power above the market price.

OK, let's go on. Lets say it is a hot day... kind of like today, for example. Energy demand is going to be high (all those air conditioners have to be running). You may then have some power plants that may have to derate and reduce production because of warm water from heat exchange process flowing into the river (EPA mandate). So not only are you going to have high demand, but you are also going to have a decrease in potential energy production. What happens if the wind isn't blowing enough to satisfy the demands of this subdivision that this wind farm is supposed to be generating for? Are you telling me that under these conditions, that you would just venture into the spot energy market and purchase power in that manner? You'll have to pay a transmission cost/mark up to EPB/KUB/local distributor, they in turn will have to purchase their power from a wholesale energy producer (TVA for example) who will have additional mark ups/costs associated with that exchange. Then, TVA may have had to purchase power from AEP or Duke or whoever if they have to compensate for their derated fossil/nuke plants. And of course, you will have to pay the costs associated with the energy exchange between TVA and the other wholesalers. And finally, you will also have to pay market price on the 30 minute or spot market for electricity.

Let's see how that works out... :crazy:
 
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