10-2 is đźš« the standard for making the CFP.

#105
#105
volfan102455 said:
This assumes that Bama, UGA and Ole Miss also end up at least 10-2.
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I see Ole Miss at 9-3. I think they lose @ Georgia, @ Oklahoma and they'll drop a dumb one between Florida, South Carolina and Mississippi State. Why? They haven't played anybody yet. Yes, they beat LSU, but LSU is turning out to be overrated. They probably should've lost to Arkansas as well.
 
#106
#106
10-2 was the bar last year. It might be 9-3 this year. If the parity of teams keeps increasing it could eventually be 8-4. Just because it was 10-2 for the 1st year doesn’t mean 10-2 will be the standard in the future.
 
#107
#107
It wasn't the final record. It was how the standings played out. Ole Miss bungled a game and it bumped us back up. We were out after the loss at UGA. 10-2 was never the criteria. And it certainly isn’t this season. Win the league, or hope. Simple as that.
 
#108
#108
VFL-82-JP said:
10-2 is no guarantee for Army. Or Iowa State. Or Cincinnati.

But any SEC or B10 team at 10-2 or better, they're gonna be in the playoffs. There just won't be that many of them, after the entire season plays out.

The NCAA and CFP can put whatever they wish on their web site...and it can even be true in general. But not for the big boys. Being at or near the top of those two conferences, that's too powerful for the Committee to ignore.

Go Vols!
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I think this is right I just don't think they can keep a SEC or B1G team out of the playoffs with 10 wins. The easiest schedule path in these 2 conferences are harder than any other conference school IMO.
 
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#114
#114
VFL-82-JP said:
Looks to me after doing some math like there are probably going to be about four (maybe three, maybe five) SEC teams with a 10-2 or better record in the regular season. And those three to five will be among these eight programs: A&M, Bama, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, and UGa.

Don't worry about Mizzou or Vandy, they're both crashing to earth here soon enough (Mizzou soon to face Bama, Auburn, A&M, Miss St, and Oklahoma ... Vandy with Bama, LSU, Texas, Auburn, and the Vols ahead ... oh, and they play each other, guaranteeing someone another loss).

Who has the easiest remaining road of those eight? Well, Ole Miss only has UGa and Oklahoma as major remaining challenges. A&M has LSU and Texas. UGa has Ole Miss and Texas. We have Bama and Oklahoma. Of course, we and UGa already have one loss, so our margin of error is narrower. But I'd gamble on two or three of those teams being in the playoffs at end of season.

Harder roads belong to Bama (they still face us, LSU and Oklahoma, with 1 loss already) ... LSU (A&M, Bama, and Oklahoma) ... and Texas (still Oklahoma, UGa, and A&M with 1 loss already on the board). Oklahoma takes the cake, though, most challenging path ahead of all (still to face Texas, Ole Miss, the Vols, Bama, and LSU!).

My guess is only one of those gets through their gauntlet with 2 losses or fewer.

So two or three of Ole Miss, A&M, UGa, and us ... plus one of Bama, LSU, Texas, and Oklahoma (only including Oklahoma for completeness' sake; they're not going to make it).

All three or four of those teams will be in the playoffs. Guaranteed.

No matter what the NCAA web site tells you.

Go Vols!
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Assuming us being 10-2, you’re right that OU isn’t going to make it. They are staring down the barrel of an SEC gauntlet. I also seriously doubt Texas runs the table.

That leaves:

A&M, Bama, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee and UGa.

I think the SEC gets 4 in, but if the other teams on this list win the games they’re favored in, I don’t like our chances. Our best win would be against Oklahoma at home and they’ll probably have 2 losses by the time we play.

The good news is there is ALWAYS upsets in the SEC. We just need to root for whoever is playing against A&M, OM, UGA, LSU, Bama,
 
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#115
#115
it’s also worth mentioning that we should improve more down the stretch than any other team with the players we have coming back plus joey getting more familiar with the offense and SEC speed
 
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#116
#116
bpalmer28 said:
it’s also worth mentioning that we should improve more down the stretch than any other team with the players we have coming back plus joey getting more familiar with the offense and SEC speed
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That's true enough, but my biggest concern isn't their offense vs our defense, it's how we match up against that wicked OU defense. This game reminds me of our game against them last year but in reverse.
 
#118
#118
Other_Guy said:
I dont see how there's enough wins to go around, nor do I see 10-2 teams from orher conferences go in before a 10-2 SEC team. You would have to give me a scenario of this.
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The schedules are lopsided, and Oklahoma and will drop from contention once they play (and possibly lose) to every other contender. Texas play Georgia, A&M, and Mizz and would also drop out.

Alabama, A&M, Ole Miss are in in they keep winning. But most importantly they don’t play one another. Georgia only plays Ole Miss. The loser of that is still in so long as they win the rest. LSU could split with A&M and Alabama and still get to 10-2.

Mizz has a schedule where they only play A&M among remaining contenders. I am assuming Texas loses at least one other game and Vandy doesn’t hold up. As of today, there are combinations where 5-6 teams can still finish at 10-2 or better. But with ND and Big Ten schedules, they will steal bids.

So you should prepare for the SEC getting only 4 bids.
 
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#121
#121
rocketskates said:
I see Ole Miss at 9-3. I think they lose @ Georgia, @ Oklahoma and they'll drop a dumb one between Florida, South Carolina and Mississippi State. Why? They haven't played anybody yet. Yes, they beat LSU, but LSU is turning out to be overrated. They probably should've lost to Arkansas as well.
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LSU is overrated to a degree, but like us, they continue to gut out wins..... I wouldn't sleep on LSU.

Also I don't think its possible for Ole Miss to go .500 this second half of the season.

OU was exposed and is likely the holder of the most overrated team in the Top 25. Mateer is injured and by refusing to sit out another week, he is only going to make that rehab worse and not heal.

And I don't know about you, I'm somewhat excited that Lane gets to coach against Kirby one week after Kirby making the referees look like morons on national tv.
 
#122
#122
IndianaVol said:
10-2 would assume we lost to Bama and beat OU, correct?

If.so, then.yes 10-2 may be difficult to get in ahead of Bama, UGA, and Ole Miss.

That said, it would not surprise me to see 5 from the SEC.
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If we go 10-2 with a loss at Bama, I think we will be among the last 10-2 teams looking in.

For us to go 10-2, that means we beat OU and Vandy which are certainties (we don't lose to teams not named UGA in Neyland). The best case for Vandy and OU now are 10-2.

I personally think those teams will have atleast 2-3 losses by the time we play them. So beating them, while good, won't be notable wins.

I could easily see us pull a James Franklin this year where we win all the games we are favored in and lose to the two big boys of the SEC in Georgia and Bama.

A 10-2 record with best wins being a 9 win OU or 9 win Vandy to me doesn't really make a strong case. Especially if you have a 12-0/11-1 Ole Miss and A&M along with a 11-1/10-2 Georgia, Alabama out there.....

My wish is we win this weekend and then Georgia and Alabama win out. Atleast in that scenario, we would be in front of Alabama and likely Georgia as I believe a win in Tuscaloosa would slingshot us up the rankings.

My mood before kickoff will be happy if Lane beats Kirby on Saturday.
 
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#123
#123
ThreatLevelOrange said:
The schedules are lopsided, and Oklahoma and will drop from contention once they play (and possibly lose) to every other contender. Texas play Georgia, A&M, and Mizz and would also drop out.

Alabama, A&M, Ole Miss are in in they keep winning. But most importantly they don’t play one another. Georgia only plays Ole Miss. The loser of that is still in so long as they win the rest. LSU could split with A&M and Alabama and still get to 10-2.

Mizz has a schedule where they only play A&M among remaining contenders. I am assuming Texas loses at least one other game and Vandy doesn’t hold up. As of today, there are combinations where 5-6 teams can still finish at 10-2 or better. But with ND and Big Ten schedules, they will steal bids.

So you should prepare for the SEC getting only 4 bids.
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I shouldve been more clear in what I mean. I dont mean its not possible, just that youre more likely to have a 9-3 team get in than a 10-2 left out.
Its very unlikely that the SEC finishes with six 10-2 teams.
I'm guessing the Big 10 gets 3, ND, plus 1 from the Big 12 plus 1 from the ACC, plus the G5, at a min. That leaves 5.
The wildcard right now for me is GT. They have a shot to run the table until they meet Georgia. Then the ACC would get 2 regardless of that outcome and then youre possibly leaving an SEC team out.
I dont think LSU reaches 10 wins. I'm also not sold on Mizzu hitting 10 wins just because its easier. (I think Tenn goes 9-3 as well).
So youre absolutely correct, and I shouldve clarified.
 
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#125
#125
Other_Guy said:
I shouldve been more clear in what I mean. I dont mean its not possible, just that youre more likely to have a 9-3 team get in than a 10-2 left out.
Its very unlikely that the SEC finishes with six 10-2 teams.
I'm guessing the Big 10 gets 3, ND, plus 1 from the Big 12 plus 1 from the ACC, plus the G5, at a min. That leaves 5.
The wildcard right now for me is GT. They have a shot to run the table until they meet Georgia. Then the ACC would get 2 regardless of that outcome and then youre possibly leaving an SEC team out.
I dont think LSU reaches 10 wins. I'm also not sold on Mizzu hitting 10 wins just because its easier. (I think Tenn goes 9-3 as well).
So youre absolutely correct, and I shouldve clarified.
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Honestly the worst case scenario is Georgia Tech. If you get BOTH Miami and Georgia Tech at 12-0 or 11-1, that could be spoiler.

Georgia Tech still has to play Georgia so I could see the loser getting left out. If Tech goes 12-0 with a final week win over Georgia, they are in regardless of the ACC title.

While that result could screw with us, I'm just hoping that the Lane train takes care of business this week so that Georgia has to play the final 5 weeks in a win or go home
 
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