Utah State opens as early Vegas favorite @Tennessee

[Orange_Crush]

Help me out here. I'm not sure what point you are trying to make. No one here is projecting a SEC championship, nor a MNC. We expect some lumps this season because we have another brutal schedule.

We are saying that we will more than likely thump USU handily, but it should be a good test and a good indicator of team improvement from last year.

With all that said, what else are you seeking to add to the dialog?

Early predictions have you down for 1-2 SEC wins, again.

You probably have 2-3 OOC opportunities to record a W.

That sounds a lot like 4-5 wins to me.

What are UT fan expectations going in? I'm hearing a lot of 8 win benchmarks. I just don't see where they would come from.

You still need to help me out here? What's your point? Let us worry about the rest of the season and the eventual record. You just need to worry about game one and all the "paper" talent disparity.

(For the record, I am predicting a six win season, with possibly 8.

Wins at: USU, ASU, UTC, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Vandy.

Possible other wins: UF, UGA, USCe, since we went to the line with UGA last year, beat USCe, and I expect UF to be down again as we improve).

But again, what does our final record have to do with the talent disparity in the first game?

 

[ag4fr]

Do you also cite Wikipedia in research papers?

In related news, I was not aware that any college FB prognosticator has the ability to supply empirical data or ever have any of their work peer-reviewed.

On the other hand, if this is a wiki, and the conclusion is 7th, isn't that almost worse?

 

[Orange_Crush]

On the other hand, if this is a wiki, and the conclusion is 7th, isn't that almost worse?

And then, on the other hand, even if that were true, what will it say when your team gets manhandled by the worst team in the SEC? Isn't that definitely worse?

 

[sjt18]

I can agree with this. UT will certainly field the team with more talent on paper.

No. It won't just be on "paper". UT will field athletes that are bigger, faster, stronger, and quicker at almost every position and down through the depth charts.

That does not make them better football players... coaching does that. It does not mean they will have a gameplan, development, skills or motivation to win the game. Those things in varying degrees come down to player effort and coaching.

I think UT fans will be impressed by the scheme, coaching, preparation, and will to win that you see from this Utah State squad.

This team has won 20 games in the past 2 seasons. They have a core of upperclassmen players that understand the committment, dedication, and work to achieve that.

I am not saying this to offend you or hurt your feelings or even to degrade your team... but if you had played the schedule UT has faced over the past two years... you would have struggled to win 8 games total. You would have lost for the same primary reason UT has lost so much- no depth of talent. The SEC is a meat grinder.

There is a very strong culture of understanding what is required to win as well as a very strong will to win.

I'm not predicting win at UT, but I am predicting a war.

Again, it isn't my intent to offend you but if UT's coaches do their job... it should not be a war. UT should control the game and win by 11+.

 

[sjt18]

Remember when Wyoming beat Tennessee at Tennessee? I believe THAT Tennessee team was more talented than THIS Tennessee team.

I'm not trying to be mean, its just true.

If Jones gets fired the week before the game after letting the team run into the ditch between now and the USU game... then you'll have a point.

 

[sjt18]

Tennessee cant get to 8 wins without a huge upset.

They wont beat Bama(home), UGA(road), USC(road), Ole Miss(road), or Oklahoma(road)

UT CAN beat UGA, USCe, and Ole Miss if they play well and catch some breaks.

 

[Orange_Crush]

No. It won't just be on "paper". UT will field athletes that are bigger, faster, stronger, and quicker at almost every position and down through the depth charts.

That does not make them better football players... coaching does that. It does not mean they will have a gameplan, development, skills or motivation to win the game. Those things in varying degrees come down to player effort and coaching.

I am not saying this to offend you or hurt your feelings or even to degrade your team... but if you had played the schedule UT has faced over the past two years... you would have struggled to win 8 games total. You would have lost for the same primary reason UT has lost so much- no depth of talent. The SEC is a meat grinder.


Again, it isn't my intent to offend you but if UT's coaches do their job... it should not be a war. UT should control the game and win by 11+.

If Jones gets fired the week before the game after letting the team run into the ditch between now and the USU game... then you'll have a point.

You and I are thinking too alike today.

I'll just say this... And it's no disrespect to USU... If UT does not handle USU handily, then I will question our coaching staff.

 

[sjt18]

You and I are thinking too alike today.

I'll just say this... And it's no disrespect to USU... If UT does not handle USU handily, then I will question our coaching staff.

I have to agree. Both staffs have about the same amount of time in the saddle. Confidence and recent success favor USU. UT has an advantage in talent, resources, home field, competition, etc. Both teams replace a lot of players and key contributors.

You have to be careful with words like "handily". There are some word parsing experts here that will give you all sorts of grief.

The thing with mid-majors is that they are mostly comers and goers. Occasionally the right coach will match up with a bunch of underrated players and create magic. Most do not make it last very long... there aren't that many of those underrated guys out there or coaches good enough to consistently find them.

Boise St has had a great run based on the ability to find enough underrated guys who could be developed and coached up to succeed against THEIR schedule. That schedule usually included 9 or 10 very weak opponents where they could develop players and get big wins then a couple of good teams that got them credibility wins. That weak schedule allowed them to have their best players always healthy to play the few good teams they faced.

At NO point did they have the depth of talent to succeed in a BCS conference like they did in their unique situation. They seemed to have some guys performing closer to their rankings and talent levels last year.

 

[sjt18]

You and I are thinking too alike today.

Seems like. Some people were aggravated with me because I criticized the coaching performance last year... but the past is past. A new test awaits. Hopefully we see very good improvement in year 2.

 

[Orange_Crush]

Seems like. Some people were aggravated with me because I criticized the coaching performance last year... but the past is past. A new test awaits. Hopefully we see very good improvement in year 2.

I'll admit that I've gotten a bit annoyed with you over the past six months or so but haven't bantered too much, because I can understand where you've come from. I pretty much gave last season up as a wash for several reasons.

1. First year in system.
2. Depth
3. Injuries
4. Strength of schedule
5. Etc...

I was by no means happy with the season, but figured I'd cut the staff some slack since they've given reason to trust them in their former stops.

This year, especially with the talent/speed influx, I expect some drastic improvement and will be disappointed/suspicious if we don't see it.

:hi:

 

[MWAVolfan]

Yes they beat us. Mid season game. Not the opener we were asleep at the wheel, coaching and player issues. Again asleep oner confident and made a bod decision not to take them seriously. A few critical injuries and we were coming off of Bama or USC game.

Season openers at home are different. The projected line for this game USU really does us a favor in that it tells or players we cannot overlook you not a cake walk and that you are a So Alabama type team versus an Austin Peay.

Sometimes players don't realize how bad or good they are until a mid level team comes in and hands them a loss or a challenge. I hope Vegas favors USU by 7 pts because it's the best fuel you can provide for motivation to earn respect without having to say anything.

What kills me is that some opposing fans state that we cannot use our tradition and history as part of our debate to counterpoint their arguments, but they are the first ones in their arguments to bring it up.

Every National Championship Team has at least one close game every season it seems against a team they were favored to beat handily. It happens. However it very really happens or has ever happened the first game of the season.

True, although Tennessee nearly got beaten in the opening game against Syracuse in 98.

 

[MWAVolfan]

UT CAN beat UGA, USCe, and Ole Miss if they play well and catch some breaks.

They can win. anyone can win, but they wont. Not with a new O-line and D-line and no quarterback to speak of and playing in the SEC on the road against mostly top 25 teams.

Like I said in my O.P., UT does not get to 8 wins without a monumental upset over a team that nobody (including most of Vol Nation) predicts them to beat AND they have to beat everyone they are supposed to beat AND win all the "toss up" games.

 

[MWAVolfan]

I'll admit that I've gotten a bit annoyed with you over the past six months or so but haven't bantered too much, because I can understand where you've come from. I pretty much gave last season up as a wash for several reasons.

1. First year in system.
2. Depth
3. Injuries
4. Strength of schedule
5. Etc...

I was by no means happy with the season, but figured I'd cut the staff some slack since they've given reason to trust them in their former stops.

This year, especially with the talent/speed influx, I expect some drastic improvement and will be disappointed/suspicious if we don't see it.

:hi:

The problem is that the program is *ALMOST* taking a step backwards. Yes, they have a great signing class, but in reality most of that class wont make a tangible impact until 2015-2016. We have a ton of potential that needs to be developed to compete in the SEC.

But we lose all the veteran O-line and D-line and we have no QB to speak of and our backs and WRs are all pretty unpolished and young, which isnt good if you are counting on the QB to make up the difference and put the ball where it is supposed to be.

 

[LotteryPick]

True, although Tennessee nearly got beaten in the opening game against Syracuse in 98.

Yep. That Syracuse was pretty darn good, though.

 

[Orange_Crush]

The problem is that the program is *ALMOST* taking a step backwards. Yes, they have a great signing class, but in reality most of that class wont make a tangible impact until 2015-2016. We have a ton of potential that needs to be developed to compete in the SEC.

But we lose all the veteran O-line and D-line and we have no QB to speak of and our backs and WRs are all pretty unpolished and young, which isnt good if you are counting on the QB to make up the difference and put the ball where it is supposed to be.

If our staff can't show a marked improvement in player development in year two, I will be disappointed and suspicious.

We have four highly rated QBs, three of which played in a new system last year. With the talent at that position, I will be disappointed and suspicious if at least one has not been coached up in the offseason.

The loss of last year's O-Line may be a net plus. This is the newcomers' second year in the system. I hope they show improvement over last year's squad.

We have talent at WR. They have an entire offseason to get coached.

Now let me say this... I'm saying this as if I expect most if this to happen. This staff has shown elsewhere they can coach. I expect to see vast improvement in this team this coming year.

 

[YorkVol]

If our staff can't show a marked improvement in player development in year two, I will be disappointed and suspicious.

We have four highly rated QBs, three of which played in a new system last year. With the talent at that position, I will be disappointed and suspicious if at least one has not been coached up in the offseason.

The loss of last year's O-Line may be a net plus. This is the newcomers' second year in the system. I hope they show improvement over last year's squad.

We have talent at WR. They have an entire offseason to get coached.

Now let me say this... I'm saying this as if I expect most if this to happen. This staff has shown elsewhere they can coach. I expect to see vast improvement in this team this coming year.

This. People will step up and we will see marked improvement.

 

[MWAVolfan]

If our staff can't show a marked improvement in player development in year two, I will be disappointed and suspicious.

We have four highly rated QBs, three of which played in a new system last year. With the talent at that position, I will be disappointed and suspicious if at least one has not been coached up in the offseason.

I guess that depends on what the definition of highly rated is. Worley, Fergusson, and Dobbs were all 3* recruits and not even in the top 20 by position in their classes. Peterman was a 4* and the only one that I would consider highly rated. But frankly I dont think he will ever see the playing field unless there is an injury or the other three QBs just plain stink in practice. Also, I am not sure any are perfectly suited for CBJ's offensive system.

The loss of last year's O-Line may be a net plus. This is the newcomers' second year in the system. I hope they show improvement over last year's squad.

I think this requires further explanation. I'm not sure how to make that math add up. We had a nationally touted offensive line. Did they disappoint last year? Yes. But how would you expect the second stringers that are taking their place to do better? Remember that these are second stringers that Derek Dooley recruited (minus the brand new players from class of 2014).

We have talent at WR. They have an entire offseason to get coached.

Yes, our offensive play makers are at WR and now a good running back is coming in... but they are YOUNG and if the QB can't do his job, then a good WR is made that much less effective.

Now let me say this... I'm saying this as if I expect most if this to happen. This staff has shown elsewhere they can coach. I expect to see vast improvement in this team this coming year.

Like I said in my O.P. I just dont think the improvements to this team will be seen on any kind of tangible level on the field with big problems at key positions. But CBJ is getting the good players to come to UT. Class of 2013 was a throw away (CBJ first year with players that were not his). Class of 2014 is year 0 as far as I am concerned. It is the beginning of the beginning.

Not trying to be a negative nellie. Just stating what I think the current state of reality is.

 

[MWAVolfan]

Yep. That Syracuse was pretty darn good, though.

yes, they had a pretty good QB.

 

[LotteryPick]

yes, they had a pretty good QB.

I mean, he was decent.

Had a pretty good LB, too ...

 

[ag4fr]

You still need to help me out here? What's your point? Let us worry about the rest of the season and the eventual record. You just need to worry about game one and all the "paper" talent disparity.

(For the record, I am predicting a six win season, with possibly 8.

Wins at: USU, ASU, UTC, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Vandy.

Possible other wins: UF, UGA, USCe, since we went to the line with UGA last year, beat USCe, and I expect UF to be down again as we improve).

But again, what does our final record have to do with the talent disparity in the first game?

Ok. I'll spell it out.

I don't think UT is arriving at the Top 25 station anytime soon.

I don't think that you will beat Utah State handily.

With the exception of the USC game last year, UT beat nobody.

Against Oregon, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mizzou, Auburn, and USC, the average outcome was UT losing by a score of 17-39.

I think UT is still trying to figure out how to win easier games and is an absolute trainwreck against top-tier SEC and national title contenders.

UT is breaking in a lot of new guys on both the OL and the front end of their D.

I think UT will be lucky to notch 2 SEC wins again this year.

I don't think your team has shown in any way that it has established the will, discipline, or mindset of a successful football team.

Nobody on that team even knows what that looks like.

I don't think you flip that overnight. Not in the SEC and not against the OOC competition you face in 2014.

 

[ThatVolGuy]

In related news, I was not aware that any college FB prognosticator has the ability to supply empirical data or ever have any of their work peer-reviewed.

On the other hand, if this is a wiki, and the conclusion is 7th, isn't that almost worse?

The point is simply that redirecting us to an article from SB Nation in an attempt to validate your opinion is just a bit shy of pathetic. You seem reasonably bright as far as fans of opposing teams go, but forgive me if I don't bow to the alter of SB Nation when it comes to sports insight.

Give me a few minutes to make some changes to Utah State's football Wiki (they have one, right?), and I'll give you a link to prove that your program is teh suck. Same concept.

 

[sjt18]

They can win. anyone can win, but they wont. Not with a new O-line and D-line and no quarterback to speak of and playing in the SEC on the road against mostly top 25 teams.

Make up your mind. You cannot logically/honestly say that they can in one sentence then say they "won't" in definitive terms in the next. Either they "can" or they "won't"... it cannot be both.

Like I said in my O.P., UT does not get to 8 wins without a monumental upset over a team that nobody (including most of Vol Nation) predicts them to beat AND they have to beat everyone they are supposed to beat AND win all the "toss up" games.

I think the range is 4 to 7 wins and that where they land will be a direct reflection on this staff's ability to coach. The talent on the roster fits that 4 to 7 range. I agree UT would have to win all the "shoulds" and all of the "maybes" to get to get to 8 wins. I am probably not giving UF or USCe the respect you are. UF is very talented but Muschamp is not a great coach. USCe has a HoF coach and will have an experience advantage but more than likely will NOT be more talented than UT in terms of composite athletic ability.

I don't think Ole Miss is a NC contender but do believe they're a sleeper like Auburn was last year. They had a couple of really good classes that are now pretty mature. Freeze is a very good coach. OU, UGA, and Bama are long shots though UGA will always be vulnerable so long as Richt roams the sidelines.

 

[LotteryPick]

Ok. I'll spell it out.

I don't think UT is arriving at the Top 25 station anytime soon.

I don't think that you will beat Utah State handily.

With the exception of the USC game last year, UT beat nobody.

Against Oregon, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mizzou, Auburn, and USC, the average outcome was UT losing by a score of 17-39.

I think UT is still trying to figure out how to win easier games and is an absolute trainwreck against top-tier SEC and national title contenders.

UT is breaking in a lot of new guys on both the OL and the front end of their D.

I think UT will be lucky to notch 2 SEC wins again this year.

I don't think your team has shown in any way that it has established the will, discipline, or mindset of a successful football team.

Nobody on that team even knows what that looks like.

I don't think you flip that overnight. Not in the SEC and not against the OOC competition you face in 2014.

While USU is a pretty good team (last year's team, at least), they aren't on the level of the teams UT lost to this past season. Vandy is the exception.

UT will beat Vandy and UK and probably upset another SEC team. (Maybe add Mizzou; they're a bit of a question mark)

Is breaking new guys in (with experience) a bad thing? If the previous group of lineman couldn't will this team to a bowl game, wouldn't it be a good thing to move past those guys?

The team hasn't, but the coaches HAVE. It's the coaches' job to change the mental makeup of a team and they have now had awhile to improve it.

You keep putting USU into this category of "juggernauts" with the other top SEC programs, and that makes me think you should take a look at your own team before dissecting UT's issues.

Is Connor Shaw on Keeton's level? I think so. Did Shaw struggle mightily against a motivated UT team at home? Absolutely. He played awfully.

In the end, this game feels eerily similar to NCst a couple years back. They had a good QB, some talent on offense, a lockdown corner, and a ball-hawking secondary.

They got throttled on a neutral site.

Will USU get throttled? Probably not, but you keep insinuating that USU is a lot better than they actually are.

UT struggles with the good SEC teams. USU is not one of those.

 

[sjt18]

Ok. I'll spell it out.

I don't think UT is arriving at the Top 25 station anytime soon.

I don't think that you will beat Utah State handily.

With the exception of the USC game last year, UT beat nobody.

The combined record of the 8 FBS teams you beat last year before NIU was 32-55. The total composite record was 88-91.

The combined record of the teams UT played was 94-59. The combined record of the teams they beat minus their FCS cupcake was 27-22.

UT played 2 FBS teams with that finished with a losing record. USU played 5.

I am not sure how far UT is from the top 25... but they are as deserving as USU at this point based on competition.

Against Oregon, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mizzou, Auburn, and USC, the average outcome was UT losing by a score of 17-39.

I would love to do a comparison but the only team you played with even close to that level of talent was USCw... who was in turmoil and fired their coach in part because you were able to keep the game close.

I think UT is still trying to figure out how to win easier games and is an absolute trainwreck against top-tier SEC and national title contenders.

UT played at least 8 teams that would have been the best opponent on your schedule outside of USCw mentioned above. Your schedule is almost ALL "easier games"... UT has very few.

UT is breaking in a lot of new guys on both the OL and the front end of their D.

Not many new guys. Like your claim, they will be guys with development and some PT behind them. Assuming he makes it back, Saulsberry was UT's best DT last year and performed well vs SEC competition.

I think UT will be lucky to notch 2 SEC wins again this year.

And... I think USU is UK's whipping boy if you were in the SEC.

I don't think your team has shown in any way that it has established the will, discipline, or mindset of a successful football team.

If that meant anything whatsoever... you'd have a great point. One of the GREATEST things about college football is that last year is NEVER a predictor of this particular factor in THIS year.

Nobody on that team even knows what that looks like.

They know what a good mid-major looks like.

I don't think you flip that overnight. Not in the SEC and not against the OOC competition you face in 2014.

Don't presume to put yourself in the same boat with OU... YOU aren't the reason UT's OOC schedule is tough.

 

[MWAVolfan]

Make up your mind. You cannot logically/honestly say that they can in one sentence then say they "won't" in definitive terms in the next. Either they "can" or they "won't"... it cannot be both.

Saying that they CAN win insinuates the possibility, as in winning is within reach under the exact right circumstances. When I say the WONT win I am actually making a prediction of what I think will happen.

I dont give UF or USC that much credit. I said earlier that UF is a toss up game, which considering where Tennessee sits, isnt giving UF much credit at all.

I would call the USC game a toss-up as well if the game were in front of our home crowd. Same with the Ole Miss game.

Taking this young team on the road in the SEC most probably means losses with the exception of Vandy which should now be back in the "gimme" column.