Official Global Warming thread (merged)

[McDad]

you're a good cartoonist bart. You missed your calling.

l
o
l

 

[BartW]

another polar vortex to hit this week - wheres the warming ?

To your east, west, and south.

"Because the last decade was the hottest on record (and just a year ago, the U.S. saw its warmest year ever) Americans have grown accustomed to warmer winters that make normal cold feel extreme.

Some then wonder why this winter has been so (normally) cold and why temperatures in Peoria this winter have not been warmed by climate chang eto, say, a balmy 60 degrees F. The climate denial bubble claims that the cold winter weather means that surely CO2 cannot be warming the atmosphere. How can there be global warming if it's snowing outside, after all?

Well, the short answer is that cold winters still happen even in a warmed world, but that doesn't mean it's cold everywhere. In fact, we don't even have to leave the U.S. to find a very striking image of warming. We just have to shift our attention from the East to the West Coast. Alaska, usually snowy and frigid, has had two weeks of record high temperatures. Amazingly, the second half of January has averaged 40 degrees F above normal during some days in the central and western parts of the state."

"The persistently jagged jet stream we have witnessed in recent weeks has led most recently to what some have termed a "Drunken Arctic." Stumbling south with polar winds and snow, this unexpected meteorological event seems to have caught our collective attention... Perfectly encapsulating the upside-down, hung-over Arctic is this remarkable observation, courtesy of Jeff Masters of the popular Weather Underground blog: At 10 p.m. on Jan. 26 the temperature in Homer, Alaska (54 degrees F) was warmer than any other place in the contiguous U.S. except southern Florida and southern California."

Go home arctic you're drunk

"Continuing the nearly 29-year streak of above-average global monthly temperatures, January came in as the fourth-warmest such month on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This makes it the warmest January since 2007, NOAA said, and was the 38th-straight January with a global temperature above the 20th century average.

The global warmth came in stark contrast to the “polar vortex” induced conditions the eastern U.S. and Canada experienced, as well as the cold and stormy conditions in the UK and parts of Russia. Unusually high temperatures elsewhere more than compensated for these cold regions. For example, Southern Hemisphere land temperatures were the highest on record for the month. In other words, it may have been cold where you were, but globally, the planet’s hot streak continues unabated. If February's global average temperature comes in above the 20th century average, it would make 29 years since the last below average month."

"January was also marked by a worsening drought in the Western U.S., where parts of California reached “exceptional drought” status for the first time in the 15-year history of the U.S. Drought Monitor. “It’s becoming very clear that Western drought is becoming a major issue that’s going to face the nation in 2014,” said Deke Arndt, chief of the climate monitoring branch at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. on a conference call with reporters.

In contrast, a sopping wet UK, where flooding engulfed large portions of south-central England after a series of storms pummeled the region. It was the third-wettest January for the U.K. as a whole, NOAA said."

What cold?

Also, read that first XKCD comic

 

[BartW]

You're a good cartoonist Bart. You missed your calling.

I wish I had that kind of artistic talent. My stick figures suck

 

[Sandvol]

Hey Sandvol, Dr. Mann is doing an AMA (ask me anything) in the science subreddit. This is your chance to really stump him!

I would ask Dr. Mann if the tree ring data was irrelevant then why the CRU fight so hard to not release it?

 

[BartW]

I would ask Dr. Mann if the tree ring data was irrelevant then why the CRU fight so hard to not release it?

You could ask that but it would be a waste IMO. McIntyre admits on his blog that "the data was unlocked on Sep 9, 2008, the day after my FOI request."

 

[Sandvol]

I love Judith Curry's little insights on climate science:

When there’s no evidence to falsify what is merely a supposition, we are left with ”magical theories that explains absolutely everything – including diametrically contradictory phenomena, lack of logic and absence of evidence.”

 

[BartW]

I love Judith Curry's little insights on climate science:

When there’s no evidence to falsify what is merely a supposition, we are left with ”magical theories that explains absolutely everything – including diametrically contradictory phenomena, lack of logic and absence of evidence.”

Judith Curry has 0 credibility. A small step up from Fred Singer though. If she/you could specifically point out diametrically contradictory phenomena, lack of logic, and absence of evidence you'd have a point. And a Nobel Prize.

 

[BartW]

For those that have been asking "What is the climate supposed to be doing?" or "What if it's a natural cycle?" let me give you some context:

No matter what time frame you look at, the current pace of global warming is unprecedented. AND it's happening while our planet should be cooling.

 

[BartW]

In May the atmospheric CO2 concentration surpassed 400 ppm. That's the highest it's been in ~3 million years.

"The last time the concentration of Earth's main greenhouse gas reached this mark, horses and camels lived in the high Arctic. Seas were at least 30 feet higher—at a level that today would inundate major cities around the world.

The planet was about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer. But the Earth then was in the final stage of a prolonged greenhouse epoch, and CO2 concentrations were on their way down. This time, 400 ppm is a milepost on a far more rapid uphill climb toward an uncertain climate future."

Climate Milestone: Earth’s CO2 Level Passes 400 ppm
Greenhouse gas highest since the Pliocene, when sea levels were higher and the Earth was warmer.

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

Are you still trying to make a point or what?

 

[Orangeslice13]

Hurrah for the hocky stick graph.

 

[Sandvol]

Judith Curry has 0 credibility. A small step up from Fred Singer though. If she/you could specifically point out diametrically contradictory phenomena, lack of logic, and absence of evidence you'd have a point. And a Nobel Prize.

Isn't it amazing how all these scientists who have the highest integrity and have produced transparent peer reviewed work their whole lives have zero credibility with you but the ones who have proven to have no integrity are just misunderstood and taken out of context and you keep displaying their work. Typical liberal.

 

[Sandvol]

In May the atmospheric CO2 concentration surpassed 400 ppm. That's the highest it's been in ~3 million years.

"The last time the concentration of Earth's main greenhouse gas reached this mark, horses and camels lived in the high Arctic. Seas were at least 30 feet higher—at a level that today would inundate major cities around the world.

The planet was about 2 to 3 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer. But the Earth then was in the final stage of a prolonged greenhouse epoch, and CO2 concentrations were on their way down. This time, 400 ppm is a milepost on a far more rapid uphill climb toward an uncertain climate future."

Climate Milestone: Earth’s CO2 Level Passes 400 ppm
Greenhouse gas highest since the Pliocene, when sea levels were higher and the Earth was warmer.

Who was measuring CO2 one million years ago?

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

It's still all a bunch of crap to waste more money that could be used for a more important issue.

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Who was measuring CO2 one million years ago?

No kidding. Plus since there were no machines back then, shouldn't the current CO2 levels be significantly higher? I thought global warming was predominantly man made?

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

It's still all a bunch of crap to waste more money that could be used for a more important issue.

The global warming fanatics think that by stopping CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere it would fix things.

 

[Orangeslice13]

What is the ideal temp for the planet. Maybe 2deg higher is just what we need.

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

The global warming fanatics think that by stopping CO2 being pumped into the atmosphere it would fix things.

They've been playing around w/this for over 40 something years now & haven't done squat either way.

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

If they would have taken all the money that's been pumped into this BS lie & given to the poor people in the slums & shanty towns of Africa & places like that directly who really need it would've been more help to mankind than this big piece of crap lie.

 

[BartW]

No kidding. Plus since there were no machines back then, shouldn't the current CO2 levels be significantly higher? I thought global warming was predominantly man made?

I think you got your reasoning backwards but whatever. As you can see in the Vostok ice core plot, CO2 has historically followed the temperature curve. CO2 and temperature have been higher in the past. Sea levels were also much higher. At one time most of the US was under a shallow sea (you can find marine fossils all over Tennessee). Scientists aren’t alarmed by the absolute temperature/CO2 concentration, they’re alarmed by the unprecedented and unnatural rate of increase.

 

[BartW]

Isn't it amazing how all these scientists who have the highest integrity and have produced transparent peer reviewed work their whole lives have zero credibility with you but the ones who have proven to have no integrity are just misunderstood and taken out of context and you keep displaying their work. Typical liberal.

The professional “skeptics” you’ve named have 0 credibility because they’ve repeatedly been caught spewing lies and misinformation. Academics are quick to call eachother out on their BS. 98% of climate scientists believe in man-made global warming. 99%+ of climate scientists recognize global warming (from any cause), and 100% of the most prolific and esteemed climate scientists recognize AGW. The “skeptics” are second-rate scientists, or worse, industry-funded science denialists.

Who was measuring CO2 one million years ago?

Let me guess, you think the world is 6000 years old too? Just because we weren’t there doesn’t mean we can’t measure it. Paleoatmosphere can be measured directly through air bubbles trapped in ice (just like you might get air bubbles trapped in your ice cubes) or through various proxies in sedimentary rocks.

 

[BartW]

Hurrah for the hocky stick graph.

Well, THE hockey stick graph was published my Mann et al. in 1998 and it covered the last 1000 years. These are several reconstructions by different authors covering different timescales. Last year the PAGES 2K project, which is the most comprehensive paleoclimate reconstruction to date, reconfirmed Mann’s result from 15 years earlier.

“78 researchers from 24 countries, together with many other colleagues, worked for seven years in the PAGES 2k project on the new climate reconstruction. “2k” stands for the last 2000 years, while PAGES stands for the Past Global Changes program launched in 1991. Recently, their new study was published in Nature Geoscience. It is based on 511 climate archives from around the world, from sediments, ice cores, tree rings, corals, stalagmites, pollen or historical documents and measurements (Fig. 1). All data are freely available”

Most Comprehensive Paleoclimate Reconstruction Confirms Hockey Stick

Hockey stick is not broken

 

[BartW]

Are you still trying to make a point or what?

Yes, climate denialists are off their rockers. There are plenty of places around the internet where they can circlejerk in peace but VN will not be one of them. It’s my favorite board. I’m going to continue refuting the nonsense posted in this thread in case there are any truly ignorant (not willfully ignorant) people on the fence that may visit VN. This is one of if not the biggest challenges facing mankind. I’m not letting the morons poopoo all over this thread.

 

[BartW]

For Insureres, No Doubts on Climate Change

If there were one American industry that would be particularly worried about climate change it would have to be insurance, right?

From Hurricane Sandy’s devastating blow to the Northeast to the protracted drought that hit the Midwest Corn Belt, natural catastrophes across the United States pounded insurers last year, generating $35 billion in privately insured property losses, $11 billion more than the average over the last decade.

And the industry expects the situation will get worse. “Numerous studies assume a rise in summer drought periods in North America in the future and an increasing probability of severe cyclones relatively far north along the U.S. East Coast in the long term,” said Peter Höppe, who heads Geo Risks Research at the reinsurance giant Munich Re. “The rise in sea level caused by climate change will further increase the risk of storm surge.” Most insurers, including the reinsurance companies that bear much of the ultimate risk in the industry, have little time for the arguments heard in some right-wing circles that climate change isn’t happening, and are quite comfortable with the scientific consensus that burning fossil fuels is the main culprit of global warming.

“Insurance is heavily dependent on scientific thought,” Frank Nutter, president of the Reinsurance Association of America, told me last week. “It is not as amenable to politicized scientific thought.”

 

[Orangeslice13]

My dad smashed atoms for a living. PHD level edumacation. His designs are used in every reactor in the world. He says the more we learn the more we realize we don't know that much. He worked in areas of science that are verifyable with facts. He says you climate guys are all full of shiz. You take evidence and twist it to fit your adgenda. Given what he and his friends have done and proven, I'm going to take their word for it.

So post me another chart showing the average temp from 10,000 years ago.