UT's chance at March Madness

#26
#26
johnnybravo said:
I've been thinking a lot about the Vols chances to make the NCAA tourny lately. Those that say that the Wichita St game was not a must win couldn't have been more wrong. Our RPI was 134 going into that game. We are at a manageable 63 now. A loss to Wichita State would probably have put us in a must win mode from here on out. You are right about the SEC. One bad loss against SC, GA, etc can put us completely out of the picture. I've been going to realtimerpi lately. They have projected wins and losses for us throughout the schedule. I find it intereesting that they do not have us winning one road game. Even though some of the worse teams in the SEC are on the road.
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They have UT winning 4 road games now. That site changes daily. It's great for keeping up to date on RPI and such, but bad for trying to reference since what's there today is gone tomorrow.

Right now they have UT favored on the road vs Georgia, Auburn, Vandy, and SoCar. Basically the dregs of the conference. Also, just a slight dog on the road at A&M.
 
#27
#27
gardners_51609 said:
That is what I mean, The last I checked our RPI was in the low 70's that makes it a little tougher to get in since we do not play a schedule that screams RPI....
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Rpi right now is sitting at 62.
Ky is a 66. Right where we need to be going into conference if it holds with wins over Xavier and Memphis.

Just checked:
Memphis has dropped all the way to 130. (a must win)
Wins over Xavier and Ole Miss will help.
 
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#28
#28
GatorsGators said:
It undoubtedly involves a lot of predicting. But it's so early in the season right now that there needs to be a bit of predicting if you want your metric to be valuable.
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I can see that. Seed Madness is just going off what has happened so far. So a team with a wildly out of line RPI (LSU) is in whereas a team that people project to be in is out (UK). Both sites have value, a middle ground between the two is probably a reasonable position right now.
 
#29
#29
calban said:
Rpi right now is sitting at 62.
Ky is a 66. Right where we need to be going into conference if it holds with wins over Xavier and Memphis.

Just checked:
Memphis has dropped all the way to 130. (a must win)
Wins over Xavier and Ole Miss will help.
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Memphis will help as they enter conference play and their winning percentage bloats to its normal gaudy size. But I still agree, they are becoming a must win.
 
#30
#30
zansdad said:
Memphis will help as they enter conference play and their winning percentage bloats to its normal gaudy size. But I still agree, they are becoming a must win.
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How much do you think we drop with a win over Presby (rpi 342)?
 
#31
#31
zansdad said:
They have UT winning 4 road games now. That site changes daily. It's great for keeping up to date on RPI and such, but bad for trying to reference since what's there today is gone tomorrow.

Right now they have UT favored on the road vs Georgia, Auburn, Vandy, and SoCar. Basically the dregs of the conference. Also, just a slight dog on the road at A&M.
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Must change quicker than daily because I still see them losing all the road games.

W
12-18 Presbyterian 0-8 (0-0) 328 86-65 W - Scouting
12-21 Western Carolina 3-7 (2-0) 210 83-66 W - Scouting
12-29 Xavier 7-2 (0-0) 62 76-69 W - Scouting
01-04 Memphis 6-3 (0-0) 129 83-74 W - Scouting
01-09 Mississippi 7-1 (0-0) 51 76-77 L - Scouting
01-12 at Alabama 5-3 (0-0) 45 67-77 L - Scouting
01-15 at Kentucky 7-3 (0-0) 66 69-82 L - Scouting
01-19 Mississippi St. 3-6 (0-0) 244 79-66 W - Scouting
01-24 at Mississippi 7-1 (0-0) 51 68-84 L - Scouting
01-26 Alabama 5-3 (0-0) 45 75-69 W - Scouting
01-29 Vanderbilt 4-4 (0-0) 185 77-66 W - Scouting
02-02 at Arkansas 5-4 (0-0) 121 69-75 L - Scouting
02-06 Georgia 2-7 (0-0) 272 81-66 W - Scouting
02-10 at South Carolina 6-3 (0-0) 186 71-75 L - Scouting
02-13 at Vanderbilt 4-4 (0-0) 185 69-74 L - Scouting
02-16 Kentucky 7-3 (0-0) 66 77-73 W - Scouting
02-19 LSU 6-1 (0-0) 38 81-74 W - Scouting
02-23 at Texas A&M 7-2 (0-0) 14 69-76 L - Scouting
02-26 Florida 7-1 (0-0) 7 66-74 L - Scouting
03-02 at Georgia 2-7 (0-0) 272 73-74 L - Scouting
03-06 at Auburn 4-5 (0-0) 236 72-75 L - Scouting
 
#32
#32
johnnybravo said:
Must change quicker than daily because I still see them losing all the road games.

W
12-18 Presbyterian 0-8 (0-0) 328 86-65 W - Scouting
12-21 Western Carolina 3-7 (2-0) 210 83-66 W - Scouting
12-29 Xavier 7-2 (0-0) 62 76-69 W - Scouting
01-04 Memphis 6-3 (0-0) 129 83-74 W - Scouting
01-09 Mississippi 7-1 (0-0) 51 76-77 L - Scouting
01-12 at Alabama 5-3 (0-0) 45 67-77 L - Scouting
01-15 at Kentucky 7-3 (0-0) 66 69-82 L - Scouting
01-19 Mississippi St. 3-6 (0-0) 244 79-66 W - Scouting
01-24 at Mississippi 7-1 (0-0) 51 68-84 L - Scouting
01-26 Alabama 5-3 (0-0) 45 75-69 W - Scouting
01-29 Vanderbilt 4-4 (0-0) 185 77-66 W - Scouting
02-02 at Arkansas 5-4 (0-0) 121 69-75 L - Scouting
02-06 Georgia 2-7 (0-0) 272 81-66 W - Scouting
02-10 at South Carolina 6-3 (0-0) 186 71-75 L - Scouting
02-13 at Vanderbilt 4-4 (0-0) 185 69-74 L - Scouting
02-16 Kentucky 7-3 (0-0) 66 77-73 W - Scouting
02-19 LSU 6-1 (0-0) 38 81-74 W - Scouting
02-23 at Texas A&M 7-2 (0-0) 14 69-76 L - Scouting
02-26 Florida 7-1 (0-0) 7 66-74 L - Scouting
03-02 at Georgia 2-7 (0-0) 272 73-74 L - Scouting
03-06 at Auburn 4-5 (0-0) 236 72-75 L - Scouting
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As you can see by RPI, that all the bad teams in the SEC with an RPI that can kill our chances of making the tourny are all on the road. Having to win all the road games even against the worst teams in the SEC will probably not be possible.
 
#33
#33
i just see us winning alot if maymen back ky not that good this year so maybe a split thats 1 extra win vandy dont look that good that maybe a extra win and georgia looks bad so them 3 could mean extra 3 to 5 victories this year
 
#34
#34
calban said:
How much do you think we drop with a win over Presby (rpi 342)?
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I try not to think about it. Probably almost as big a hit as beating WSU was a bump. Just spit-balling it really. Last year I was able to make educated guesses/estimations because a single teams winning percentage late in the season had little effect unless that were either nearly perfect or nearly win-less. However, this early in the season each teams winning percentage has a huge influence and Presby is a big fat 0%, double whammy. I would expect we are in the high 80's to low 90's

Hopefully this one and the WCU game are the bottom though.
 
#35
#35
johnnybravo said:
Must change quicker than daily because I still see them losing all the road games.

W
12-18 Presbyterian 0-8 (0-0) 328 86-65 W - Scouting
12-21 Western Carolina 3-7 (2-0) 210 83-66 W - Scouting
12-29 Xavier 7-2 (0-0) 62 76-69 W - Scouting
01-04 Memphis 6-3 (0-0) 129 83-74 W - Scouting
01-09 Mississippi 7-1 (0-0) 51 76-77 L - Scouting
01-12 at Alabama 5-3 (0-0) 45 67-77 L - Scouting
01-15 at Kentucky 7-3 (0-0) 66 69-82 L - Scouting
01-19 Mississippi St. 3-6 (0-0) 244 79-66 W - Scouting
01-24 at Mississippi 7-1 (0-0) 51 68-84 L - Scouting
01-26 Alabama 5-3 (0-0) 45 75-69 W - Scouting
01-29 Vanderbilt 4-4 (0-0) 185 77-66 W - Scouting
02-02 at Arkansas 5-4 (0-0) 121 69-75 L - Scouting
02-06 Georgia 2-7 (0-0) 272 81-66 W - Scouting
02-10 at South Carolina 6-3 (0-0) 186 71-75 L - Scouting
02-13 at Vanderbilt 4-4 (0-0) 185 69-74 L - Scouting
02-16 Kentucky 7-3 (0-0) 66 77-73 W - Scouting
02-19 LSU 6-1 (0-0) 38 81-74 W - Scouting
02-23 at Texas A&M 7-2 (0-0) 14 69-76 L - Scouting
02-26 Florida 7-1 (0-0) 7 66-74 L - Scouting
03-02 at Georgia 2-7 (0-0) 272 73-74 L - Scouting
03-06 at Auburn 4-5 (0-0) 236 72-75 L - Scouting
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I'm not sure we are talking about the same site. Here is what I am looking at.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Tennessee.html

edit: I just checked the site you got your data from. That site is new to me. I will have to try and keep up with it.
 
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#36
#36
We have to beat Ole Miss at home in our first SEC game. 5 out of our first 6 conference games could be losses, and that is a confidence killer. Wish we swapped MSU and Arkansas at home, but that is the schedule.

RPI will work itself out in the end if you beat the teams you are supposed to and grab a couple of important games. I believe a win at Ole Miss is better than at home against Ole Miss. The losses we have now won't hurt bad unless we start losing games we aren't supposed to. All losses on road or neutral site.
 
#37
#37
VolGee4 said:
We have to beat Ole Miss at home in our first SEC game. 5 out of our first 6 conference games could be losses, and that is a confidence killer. Wish we swapped MSU and Arkansas at home, but that is the schedule.

RPI will work itself out in the end if you beat the teams you are supposed to and grab a couple of important games. I believe a win at Ole Miss is better than at home against Ole Miss. The losses we have now won't hurt bad unless we start losing games we aren't supposed to. All losses on road or neutral site.
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RPI wise, splitting with Ole Miss doesn't change greatly as far as where it happens. The net affect on the AWP is the same I believe (or at least so small as to not really matter). However, a road win is always good in the committee's eyes.
 
#38
#38
zansdad said:
I try not to think about it. Probably almost as big a hit as beating WSU was a bump. Just spit-balling it really. Last year I was able to make educated guesses/estimations because a single teams winning percentage late in the season had little effect unless that were either nearly perfect or nearly win-less. However, this early in the season each teams winning percentage has a huge influence and Presby is a big fat 0%, double whammy. I would expect we are in the high 80's to low 90's

Hopefully this one and the WCU game are the bottom though.
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It can be tough, and you don't want to lose to a team you shouldn't (like Austin Peay last year). But, Bruce was the master at scheduling mid-majors that had decent records. I am not even talking about Western Kentucky or MTSU or Charlotte. But, it seemed like the years that we even played Chattanooga, Belmont, UNC Asheville, etc., they all had double digit wins. It goes a long way in the RPI when you are beating those kinds of teams than when you are beating 5 win teams.

I think Bruce's last year when our record wasn't great that we played like 10+ teams during the year that went to NCAAT. That helps build a resume.
 
#39
#39
VolGee4 said:
It can be tough, and you don't want to lose to a team you shouldn't (like Austin Peay last year). But, Bruce was the master at scheduling mid-majors that had decent records. I am not even talking about Western Kentucky or MTSU or Charlotte. But, it seemed like the years that we even played Chattanooga, Belmont, UNC Asheville, etc., they all had double digit wins. It goes a long way in the RPI when you are beating those kinds of teams than when you are beating 5 win teams.

I think Bruce's last year when our record wasn't great that we played like 10+ teams during the year that went to NCAAT. That helps build a resume.
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Pearl's other little secret was to play those type teams at a nuetral site. RPI looks much better when you get 1.0 for beating a team at a nuetral site as oppossed to 0.6 for beating them at home. This Presbyterian game is a perfect example. It's an RPI killer and it's during Winter break. Should have just played someone in Nashville. They would have sold the same amount of tickets.

Presby will mean that UT will have played 2 teams in the bottom 10 of all schools in D1 (RPI wise). Throw in UNCA at 285 and that's a pretty crappy OOC SOS.
 
#40
#40
VolGee4 said:
We have to beat Ole Miss at home in our first SEC game. 5 out of our first 6 conference games could be losses, and that is a confidence killer. Wish we swapped MSU and Arkansas at home, but that is the schedule.

RPI will work itself out in the end if you beat the teams you are supposed to and grab a couple of important games. I believe a win at Ole Miss is better than at home against Ole Miss. The losses we have now won't hurt bad unless we start losing games we aren't supposed to. All losses on road or neutral site.
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Most of the teams in the SEC that we are suppose to beat are on the road. Slip up once and we dig a hole that we can't get out of.
 
#41
#41
zansdad said:
Pearl's other little secret was to play those type teams at a nuetral site. RPI looks much better when you get 1.0 for beating a team at a nuetral site as oppossed to 0.6 for beating them at home. This Presbyterian game is a perfect example. It's an RPI killer and it's during Winter break. Should have just played someone in Nashville. They would have sold the same amount of tickets.

Presby will mean that UT will have played 2 teams in the bottom 10 of all schools in D1 (RPI wise). Throw in UNCA at 285 and that's a pretty crappy OOC SOS.
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Yep, that's bad. I also assume that classes don't start until January 7. So, why did they schedule Memphis on January 4, with some students not back until the weekend? Someone messed up there. Students need to be there for the Memphis game. The Memphis game in Knoxville is usually in early December or I went to the one in 2009 that was on January 24.
 
#42
#42
There is no doubt, this team needs to sweep the rest of the ooc games and win a couple of conference road games to feel confident about March.
 
#43
#43
VolGee4 said:
Yep, that's bad. I also assume that classes don't start until January 7. So, why did they schedule Memphis on January 4, with some students not back until the weekend? Someone messed up there. Students need to be there for the Memphis game. The Memphis game in Knoxville is usually in early December or I went to the one in 2009 that was on January 24.
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I think the expanded SEC schedule is to blame for the Memphis game being at such a bad time. They had 2 squeeze to more games in there somewhere which meant the Memphis game got moved forward
 
#44
#44
GatorsGators said:
I prefer TeamRankings to SeedMadness. SeedMadness, especially this early on, has a lot of outliers that are nearly impossible to explain (like LSU).

College Basketball NCAA Tournament Projections on TeamRankings.com

TR's bracketology gives Tennessee a 37% chance of making the tournament. It gives UF a 100% chance, UK 95%, Ole Miss 81%, Missouri an 80%, Alabama 41%, and Arkansas 10%. Everyone else is in single digits.
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So Tennessee's resume is better than UKs, yet UK has a 95% chance to our 37%? Makes sense.
 
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