More Climate BS...

[OHvol40]

Right. About 200years of spotty data?
Even if it was 5x that. 1000 years of climate data from all around the world...something we wont have for another 700 or 800 years...its absolutely meaningless on a planet the very same scientists claim is 4 Billion years old. No mathematician, or honest scientist would tell you that it is reasonable to make predictions based on 200years of data in a 4 Billion year data set. None. Nobody. Its preposterous. Might as well just make your conclusions from nothing. From zero knowledge. 200years on a scale of 4 Billion is practically zero. In fact its a bunch of them...like 0.000005%. Thats how much data we would have IF we had atmosphere AND ocean data from everywhere on Earth for 200 years. Which we of course do not. We have spotty data from part of the planet taken on various different instruments.

Here's the math:View attachment 832761

Lack of historical data does not nullify the chemistry behind greenhouse gasses.

 

[hog88]

“Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming, with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020.”

A headline statement from the report I linked previously.

So we have no idea if 2024 was the hottest year ever. Just within the last 175 years.

 

[hog88]

Then there's the data from ice cores...

Which has turned out to be unreliable.

 

[OHvol40]

That was for @rikberry31 since he rejects facts he doesn't like.

I figured, just ironic I posted NASA’s thoughts on it, just then.

 

[EasternVol]

So we have no idea if 2024 was the hottest year ever. Just within the last 175 years.

It is the hottest on record.

 

[OHvol40]

So we have no idea if 2024 was the hottest year ever. Just within the last 175 years.

Trying to disqualify the work of tens of thousands over decades because Genghis Khan wasn’t collecting global climate data doesn’t work. There is a difference between skepticism and cynicism.

 

[hog88]

It is the hottest on record.

A 175 year old record which isn't even a drop in the bucket.

 

[hog88]

Trying to disqualify the work of tens of thousands over decades because Genghis Khan wasn’t collecting global climate data doesn’t work. There is a difference between skepticism and cynicism.

You can't claim 2024 was the hottest year ever when the North Pole use to be covered in forest.

 

[OHvol40]

You can't claim 2024 was the hottest year ever when the North Pole use to be covered in forest.

I don’t think anyone is claiming it’s the hottest ever, and if that’s what you’re trying to refute you’ve missed the point entirely. It’s really just about chemistry, that’s it. If you want to claim increasing greenhouse gasses in a finite container with consistent sun rays isn’t going to warm the earth, and/or hasn’t, that’s your prerogative… but refute the correct thing.

 

[hog88]

I don’t think anyone is claiming it’s the hottest ever, and if that’s what you’re trying to refute you’ve missed the point entirely. It’s really just about chemistry, that’s it. If you want to claim increasing greenhouse gasses in a finite container with consistent sun rays isn’t going to warm the earth, and/or hasn’t, that’s your prerogative… but refute the correct thing.

When the earth is 4 billion years old and we have had numerous ice ages and warming periods an article touting the "hottest year on record" when the records only go back 175 years is horse crude.

 

[GroverCleveland]

My point is that the climate is indeed warming and has been for quite a while. I made that point because @OrangeTsar indicated that he doesn't think that it is.
Yes I think we all know about the sea level's fluctuations over time. And if I lived on a flat island I would still be worried. Very many who do are.

They can move.

 

[GroverCleveland]

So we have no idea if 2024 was the hottest year ever. Just within the last 175 years.

Well maybe. The satellites doing measurements were a bit spotty back in the 1700s.

 

[OHvol40]

When the earth is 4 billion years old and we have had numerous ice ages and warming periods an article touting the "hottest year on record" when the records only go back 175 years is horse crude.

Because there aren’t comprehensive temp records going back to the Cretaceous does not negate the chemistry occurring.

 

[hog88]

Because there aren’t comprehensive temp records going back to the Cretaceous does not negate the chemistry occurring.

The earth has warmed and cooled numerous times trough millennia, I don’t see anyone questioning that. What’s highly questionable is claiming “the warmest year” when the ”chemistry“ proves the earth has been warmer.

 

[marcusluvsvols]

Which has turned out to be unreliable.

Also can only vaguely tell us what the conditions were like in that 1 location...and nowhere else on planet Earth. All of this IF we have any accuracy whatsoever as to WHEN each layer of the core actually froze. Which is also suspect. The fact is we have no idea what conditions on this planet were like before recorded history, and spotty data even since the industrial revolution.

 

[BartW]

Prove that humans are causing any of this. It's . I don't care what is happening weather wise. It"s called weather. Show me a proponent of the climate change who isn't on the payroll.

Source: me, a geologist, in the private sector, part of ownership of our small (30ish people) very successful and well-respected geoscience/engineering consulting firm. Nobody at my firm or any other geo firm I’ve worked for shares your views on this subject. Nor does anybody I’ve met in relevant fields in private sector, public, or academia.

I have degrees in physics and geology from UT. My dad’s been in UT’s physics department for decades, including as department head, and is UT’s 2026 Macebearer, among an endless list of awesome accomplishments. We don’t work directly on climate change but we understand basic physics.

I didn’t expect you to attempt to answer my question. Nobody on this forum has! But I read you’re a physicist too? Then you should be able to grasp this.

If global warming were due to an external forcing, such as an increase in solar output, the upper atmosphere would be warming. If global warming is due to greenhouse gases, the surface and lower atmosphere would warm, but the upper atmosphere would cool. Stratospheric cooling was predicted by Syukuro Manabe in the early ‘60s and has been verified by weather balloon and satellite data since the ‘80s. Manabe won a Nobel prize in physics for this. Stratospheric cooling is considered a human “fingerprint” in global warming.

Among other fingerprints, we can also directly measure the changes in incoming and outgoing radiation in the specific absorption bands of different atmospheric gases and thereby measure the change in flux due to greenhouse gases. And we can measure any change in radiation from the sun. It’s overwhelmingly obvious that current global warming is being caused by greenhouse gases from human emissions, and not by the sun.

What do we do about it? That's the real debate.

 

[OHvol40]

The earth has warmed and cooled numerous times trough millennia, I don’t see anyone questioning that. What’s highly questionable is claiming “the warmest year” when the ”chemistry“ proves the earth has been warmer.

It’s not “chemistry”, it’s just plain chemistry. Yes the earth has gone through cycles, every planet does. Usually the cycles aren’t abrupt and occur over tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of years. That is all fact… and has nothing to do with the current artificial increase in greenhouse gasses. It’s all measurable, the ppm of various particles in the atmosphere, the ocean temps and levels, glacial melt, change in bird migration patterns, extreme algae blooms, and on and on.

I understand it’s healthy to be skeptical, especially in the science field. The problem is that if you start with disqualifying standards (like accurate temperature recordings over the lifespan of the earth, like who would ever believe that’s achievable?) then you’ve already made up your mind.

Also, the line I keep hearing about the “grift” sounds an awful lot like calling out an actual budding American industry (something we are in short supply of right about now) for using practices that every other dirty American industry does (and then some). There is no conspiracy here, it’s just a lot of fossil fuel money being thrown into propaganda to create talking points against renewables.

In the end, we all know we have to reach renewable energy sources anyway, why not push toward that end? I’ll tell you why, because Americans are procrastinators. We do it in healthcare, in finance (personal and business), in politics, in just about every aspect of life. A “put it off till later” attitude. “Why do I have to worry about it, I’ll be dead?” I hear that crap all the time. What happened to planting the seed of a tree whose shade you’ll never sit under?

 

[EasternVol]

A 175 year old record which isn't even a drop in the bucket.

It means the planet’s not cooling.