The Trump Effect

#736
#736
EasternVol said:
Wouldn't want to be downwind of that.
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An incredible amount of state funded corporate welfare here. Over $100K per job (up to $130K if enhanced business plans are filed, which almost certainly they were) just from state grants/hiring credits. Nothing like paying 110-130K for $80K jobs...

Im not even going to get into the hundreds of millions of property tax abatements, sales tax abatements, industrial machinery credits, etc. Likely looking at $1M+ for each job created. For $80K a year jobs.

And we havent started with any IRA or Chips Act federal incentives.

While I get the federal side of it (dont agree with it but I get), the state just absolutely got ripped a new one just to align with Trump.
 
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#741
#741
utvolpj said:
There's no way those numbers are correct. Anytime you see 100% you should be immediately skeptical
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grok:

No, the "100%" figure isn't entirely precise as stated in the post, but it's very close to what the official HUD report actually says—and the overall claim is substantially supported by the data.

Exact Claim in the Post

HUD Secretary Scott Turner's post (from December 18, 2025) states:

"Under Biden, foreign migrants accounted for 2/3 of rental demand nationwide — 100% in sanctuary states like CA and NY. "This references HUD's Worst Case Housing Needs: 2025 Report to Congress (released November 2025, using primarily 2023 American Housing Survey data plus updates through 2024).

What the Report Actually Says

Direct quotes from the report (Section on "Surge in Immigration," p. 29) and HUD's official press release summarizing it:
  • Nationwide: Immigration "accounts for ... two-thirds of rental demand growth nationwide."
  • For California and New York specifically: "In California and New York, immigrants have accounted for 100 percent of all rental growth and over one-half of all growth in owner-occupied housing in recent years."
  • HUD press release (hud.gov, December 2025): "in states like California and New York, Biden’s border crisis accounted for 100 percent of all rental price growth ... Nationwide, the foreign-born population accounted for two-thirds of rental demand growth."
Accuracy Breakdown
  • The 100% for CA and NY — Yes, this is accurate. The report explicitly states immigrants accounted for 100% of rental growth (i.e., the increase in occupied rental units or demand from new renter households) in those states in recent years. CA and NY are commonly classified as sanctuary jurisdictions (with statewide policies limiting cooperation with federal immigration enforcement), though the report itself doesn't use the term "sanctuary"—it just names those states as examples where the effect was most extreme.
  • Nationwide 2/3 (or "two-thirds") — Accurate in substance. The report ties this directly to growth in rental demand driven by the foreign-born population surge (over 6 million increase from 2021–2024).
  • Minor nuances/inaccuracies in the post:
    • It says "rental demand" broadly, while the report more precisely says "rental demand growth" or "rental growth" (meaning the increase in demand, not total existing demand).
    • It uses "foreign migrants" (implying recent arrivals), while the report uses "immigrants" or "foreign-born" (broader, including longer-term residents and naturalized citizens, though non-citizens drove much of the recent spike).
    • No direct mention of "sanctuary states" in the report—the 100% is tied specifically to CA and NY based on demographic data.
Overall Verdict

The post is a fair (if slightly simplified) summary of the HUD report's findings. The 100% isn't made up—it's straight from the department's own analysis blaming recent immigration surges for outpacing housing supply and driving up rents, especially in high-immigration states like CA and NY. If you're looking for the full report, it's publicly available on huduser.gov.
 
#742
#742
jmacvols1 said:
grok:

No, the "100%" figure isn't entirely precise as stated in the post, but it's very close to what the official HUD report actually says—and the overall claim is substantially supported by the data.

Exact Claim in the Post

HUD Secretary Scott Turner's post (from December 18, 2025) states:

"Under Biden, foreign migrants accounted for 2/3 of rental demand nationwide — 100% in sanctuary states like CA and NY. "This references HUD's Worst Case Housing Needs: 2025 Report to Congress (released November 2025, using primarily 2023 American Housing Survey data plus updates through 2024).

What the Report Actually Says

Direct quotes from the report (Section on "Surge in Immigration," p. 29) and HUD's official press release summarizing it:
  • Nationwide: Immigration "accounts for ... two-thirds of rental demand growth nationwide."
  • For California and New York specifically: "In California and New York, immigrants have accounted for 100 percent of all rental growth and over one-half of all growth in owner-occupied housing in recent years."
  • HUD press release (hud.gov, December 2025): "in states like California and New York, Biden’s border crisis accounted for 100 percent of all rental price growth ... Nationwide, the foreign-born population accounted for two-thirds of rental demand growth."
Accuracy Breakdown
  • The 100% for CA and NY — Yes, this is accurate. The report explicitly states immigrants accounted for 100% of rental growth (i.e., the increase in occupied rental units or demand from new renter households) in those states in recent years. CA and NY are commonly classified as sanctuary jurisdictions (with statewide policies limiting cooperation with federal immigration enforcement), though the report itself doesn't use the term "sanctuary"—it just names those states as examples where the effect was most extreme.
  • Nationwide 2/3 (or "two-thirds") — Accurate in substance. The report ties this directly to growth in rental demand driven by the foreign-born population surge (over 6 million increase from 2021–2024).
  • Minor nuances/inaccuracies in the post:
    • It says "rental demand" broadly, while the report more precisely says "rental demand growth" or "rental growth" (meaning the increase in demand, not total existing demand).
    • It uses "foreign migrants" (implying recent arrivals), while the report uses "immigrants" or "foreign-born" (broader, including longer-term residents and naturalized citizens, though non-citizens drove much of the recent spike).
    • No direct mention of "sanctuary states" in the report—the 100% is tied specifically to CA and NY based on demographic data.
Overall Verdict

The post is a fair (if slightly simplified) summary of the HUD report's findings. The 100% isn't made up—it's straight from the department's own analysis blaming recent immigration surges for outpacing housing supply and driving up rents, especially in high-immigration states like CA and NY. If you're looking for the full report, it's publicly available on huduser.gov.
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AI slop aside, the wording is intentionally misleading. For 100% of the growth to be correct there would be no Americans moving to NY or CA and looking for housing. That seems plausible?
 
#743
#743
utvolpj said:
AI slop aside, the wording is intentionally misleading. For 100% of the growth to be correct there would be no Americans moving to NY or CA and looking for housing. That seems plausible?
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that is what the stats show...

the AI slop says "it's straight from the department's own analysis blaming recent immigration surges for outpacing housing supply and driving up rents" which makes it very plausible.
 
#744
#744
jmacvols1 said:
that is what the stats show...

the AI slop says "it's straight from the department's own analysis blaming recent immigration surges for outpacing housing supply and driving up rents" which makes it very plausible.
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Yes I know that's what the govt report says and all grok did was repeat the govt claim. I'm saying the math isn't mathing unless you buy some pretty out there claims

So you truly think it's possible that 100% of rental demand in 2 states is from immigrants?
 
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#745
#745
utvolpj said:
Yes I know that's what the govt report says and all grok did was repeat the govt claim. I'm saying the math isn't mathing unless you buy some pretty out there claims

So you truly think it's possible that 100% of rental demand in 2 states is from immigrants?
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if illegals are OUTPACING supply then that can relate to +100% in reality but 100% is the max.
 
#746
#746
jmacvols1 said:
if illegals are OUTPACING supply then that can relate to +100% in reality but 100% is the max.
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You can't have over 100% of the growth in this instance. Do you believe that every single person looking for new housing in both CA and NY are immigrants?

Do you now see why govt statistics are pretty much worthless? Of you have to twist words and numbers into pretzels then you aren't really making a valid point
 
#748
#748
utvolpj said:
You can't have over 100% of the growth in this instance. Do you believe that every single person looking for new housing in both CA and NY are immigrants?

Do you now see why govt statistics are pretty much worthless? Of you have to twist words and numbers into pretzels then you aren't really making a valid point
Click to expand...
the report is not saying only immigrants drove all the rental growth in CA but the net growth was 100% immigrants


difference between growth and NET growth

AI slop:


"Reports.....suggest immigrants drove 100% of rental growth in CA/NY, meaning all new rental demand came from immigrant households, while growth is total new renters, net growth accounts for both arrivals and departures, showing immigrants as the sole source of increase when departures are factored in. The key difference: Growth = Immigrants Arriving - Immigrants Leaving, while Net Growth is the final tally, indicating that without immigrants, rental markets in these states wouldn't have grown at all, only shrunk.

What "100% Rental Net Growth" Means
  • Gross Growth: The total number of new people needing rentals (immigrants arriving + domestic movers needing rentals).
  • Net Growth: Gross Growth minus people leaving the rental market (domestic out-migration, people buying homes, etc.).
  • The Claim: In CA & NY, the net increase in renters was entirely due to immigrants, meaning that if you subtracted immigrants moving out and added native-born movers in, the total number of renters would have decreased without immigrants."
 
#749
#749
Something Trump could do, but never will because he’s beholden to them, is ban private equity from buying up houses.
 
#750
#750
jmacvols1 said:
the report is not saying only immigrants drove all the rental growth in CA but the net growth was 100% immigrants


difference between growth and NET growth

AI slop:


"Reports.....suggest immigrants drove 100% of rental growth in CA/NY, meaning all new rental demand came from immigrant households, while growth is total new renters, net growth accounts for both arrivals and departures, showing immigrants as the sole source of increase when departures are factored in. The key difference: Growth = Immigrants Arriving - Immigrants Leaving, while Net Growth is the final tally, indicating that without immigrants, rental markets in these states wouldn't have grown at all, only shrunk.

What "100% Rental Net Growth" Means
  • Gross Growth: The total number of new people needing rentals (immigrants arriving + domestic movers needing rentals).
  • Net Growth: Gross Growth minus people leaving the rental market (domestic out-migration, people buying homes, etc.).
  • The Claim: In CA & NY, the net increase in renters was entirely due to immigrants, meaning that if you subtracted immigrants moving out and added native-born movers in, the total number of renters would have decreased without immigrants."
Click to expand...
Again you're parsing words that aren't there to explain away terrible statistics. The claim is false and you should be skeptical when you're reading statistics like "Biden’s border crisis accounted for 100 percent"
 
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