CFP rankings- so weird

[VFL-82-JP]

Their overall schedule is mediocre. But they have 5 wins against teams at .500 or better. That's 5 more than Tennessee.

Not true.

It's 4 more.

lol

~ ~ ~

The thing is, no one knows for sure where Tennessee belongs. Including Tennessee.

Our body of work this year simply doesn't provide much clarity.

If we had beaten the #5 team in the country, then lost to the #3 team, most folks would think, "okay, within the fuzziness of football, never a precise science, the Vols are somewhere around the #4-best team in college football." That would allow for a bit of clarity.

But our win-loss chart looks more like this:



There's a HUGE gap between the teams we've beaten (green symbols) and the teams we've lost to (red symbols). We could be as high as just behind #4 Georgia (the higher of the two orange markers), or as low as just above Mississippi State and Arkansas (the lower orange blip). Because we played Georgia (and Oklahoma) close, but we also played Miss St and Arky close.

We're somewhere in that huge space in between.

It doesn't damn us that "no one we've beaten has a winning record." But it also doesn't confirm our excellence that, "we would've beaten UGa if the kid had made the field goal." Neither of those points proves much. They're just data points in a fuzzy pseudo-science of a sport.

We'll certainly know more after we beat Vandy. That will condense the range of possible values for the Vols to something Top-15ish. But I'm afraid that's about as precise as any of us can be.

I don't fault the CFP for not putting us higher. They might be wrong, but they could be right.

Go Vols!

 

[RockiesTop22]

strength of schedule and then who did you beat.

USC has 2 wins against top 25 teams. tennessee has zero wins against ranked teams and in fact the only team Tennessee beat who has a winning record is ETSU lol

Indiana has a win over a top ranked oregon team. TAMU does.not. if TAMU beats Texas I believe they will leapfrog Indiana. and they will most certainly leapfrog them if they win the SECCG.

so I don't think the rankings are as nonsensical as you think they are

So losing to unranked teams and how you lose doesn’t matter(Oregon blowout)? And I guess Iowa counts as a top 25 win for usc even though they aren’t in the top 25 anymore? My worry with that is preseason rankings are way off a lot.. why do you get credit for a top 25 win if down the road it’s known they aren’t good.

tamu has a better sos than Indiana.. have 3 top 25 wins, beat top ten ND. Vs Indiana who beat number 6 Oregon, Illinois as their biggest other win.

It just seems like they cherry pick what matters and when.

 

[UTFranklinVol]

pfffft, tell that to indiana

ummmmm Indiana beat TWO top 10 football teams.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

Way too many. There are not that many title worthy teams. More games than necessary to crown a champion.

I really don't understand why people care that there are more playoff games. It's better than more meaningless bowl games.

 

[UTFranklinVol]

So losing to unranked teams and how you lose doesn’t matter(Oregon blowout)? And I guess Iowa counts as a top 25 win for usc even though they aren’t in the top 25 anymore? My worry with that is preseason rankings are way off a lot.. why do you get credit for a top 25 win if down the road it’s known they aren’t good.

tamu has a better sos than Indiana.. have 3 top 25 wins, beat top ten ND. Vs Indiana who beat number 6 Oregon, Illinois as their biggest other win.

It just seems like they cherry pick what matters and when.

I mean USC got "blown out" by 15 point tell me how that is worse than Tennessee getting "blown out" by Alabama by 17 points?

also Iowa WAS ranked just 1 week ago until USC beat them it's not like Iowa was ranked pre season and then immediately fell out.

but all of that is beside the fact that Tennessee hasn't done anything impressive in the slightest this year. UT has beaten a bunch of truly horrible football teams many of which have fired their head coaches.

TAMU will jump Indiana eventually if they keep winning but Indiana beat the #3 team on the road in dominant fashion. to me that trumps the over all strength of schedule arguments because TAMU has not done anything nearly that impressive.

 

[VolsSportsFan]

I'm just laughing because flashback to before the playoffs and especially before they expanded and we had posts galore just moaning over how the regular season won't matter and that "3 loss teams will be getting into the playoffs".

Fast forward to today and here we are with people (no doubt many of the same people as above) arguing why our 3 loss team deserves to be in the playoff.

Not really attacking anyone and I know things like context and all matter, but at it's face value it gives me a laugh.

 

[RockiesTop22]

I mean USC got "blown out" by 15 point tell me how that is worse than Tennessee getting "blown out" by Alabama by 17 points?

also Iowa WAS ranked just 1 week ago until USC beat them it's not like Iowa was ranked pre season and then immediately fell out.

but all of that is beside the fact that Tennessee hasn't done anything impressive in the slightest this year. UT has beaten a bunch of truly horrible football teams many of which have fired their head coaches.

TAMU will jump Indiana eventually if they keep winning but Indiana beat the #3 team on the road in dominant fashion. to me that trumps the over all strength of schedule arguments because TAMU has not done anything nearly that impressive.

Well it was 35-14 until almost the 4th quarter- and I feel like they reward how you play most recently (Notre dame all season) . This isn’t just a Vols convo that’s why I made multiple points like Georgia tech and Miami discrepancy.

Your last point- I think that is what bothers me.. the committee changes what they think trumps what and when it seems. They aren’t consistent whether it’s in season or season to season.

 

[RockiesTop22]

I'm just laughing because flashback to before the playoffs and especially before they expanded and we had posts galore just moaning over how the regular season won't matter and that "3 loss teams will be getting into the playoffs".

Fast forward to today and here we are with people (no doubt many of the same people as above) arguing why our 3 loss team deserves to be in the playoff.

Not really attacking anyone and I know things like context and all matter, but at it's face value it gives me a laugh.

I definitely don’t think we deserve to be in the playoff lol.. not even close.

 

[sami]

Few things that are hard to understand:

3 loss USC is ahead of us after getting blown out by Oregon this week.

Oregon jumping Ole Miss

Indiana being ahead of TamU

9-2 Georgia tech being 11 spots lower than 9-2 Miami.. miami has lost to SMU and Louisville

the lack of consistency on what matters is wild

Generally, any decisions are about $$$$ in some manner.

USC >>$$>> UT (USC brings the west coast audience, and there are enough SEC teams in already)
Oregon >>$$>> Ole Miss (ditto, plus, they need the only three good Big 18 teams in)
Indiana >> A&M (the Big 18 is only three teams deep, and they desperately want a couple of them around late)
Miami >>$$$$$$$$$$>> Ga. Tech

It's rare that you aren't able to trace any and every decision or rules/policy change in pro and big time college sports to the bottom line in some way, shape, or form.

 

[sami]

I give it 3 years. It might be bigger.

No doubt. By 2030 or '31 at the latest it will be 24 teams.

 

[sami]

ummmmm Indiana beat TWO top 10 football teams.

Who are you counting as "Top 10" teams? Illinois? Penn State?

Both got ridiculous "preseason" rankings and then reality set in.

 

[deatojl]

strength of schedule and then who did you beat.

USC has 2 wins against top 25 teams. tennessee has zero wins against ranked teams and in fact the only team Tennessee beat who has a winning record is ETSU lol

Indiana has a win over a top ranked oregon team. TAMU does.not. if TAMU beats Texas I believe they will leapfrog Indiana. and they will most certainly leapfrog them if they win the SECCG.

so I don't think the rankings are as nonsensical as you think they are

USC has 1 win over a top 25 team and a loss to an unranked team. Their overall resume is probably a little better, though, even though I think we would beat them.
A&M has a road win over Notre Dame. Both them and Indiana have 2 wins over 7-4 unranked teams although I would say wins @lsu and @Missouri are more impressive than home vs Illinois and @Iowa. Other than that, there is nothing of value on either resume. A&M is higher in all the metrics.
Ole Miss' win @Oklahoma is more impressive than Oregon's home win over USC. Out side of that, Ole Miss has wins over 9-2 Tulane and 7-4 LSU compared to Oregon's wins over 7-4 Iowa and Minnesota and Northwestern, who are both 6-5.

I wouldn't say any of those are nonsensical, though. To me, the most nonsensical ranking is Notre Dame.

Notre Dame has ranked wins over USC and Pitt and a win over unranked Navy.
Miami has the same record, a head to head win over ND and a win over South Florida.
BYU has 1 loss @ Texas Tech, ranked win @Arizona and over Utah and wins over three 7-4 teams.
Alabama has the bad loss @FSU but has the same record with ranked wins @Georgia, home over us and Vandy, and wins over two 7-4 teams.
Notre Dame really shouldn't be ranked ahead of any of those teams. It's debatable if they should be ahead of Utah.

 

[ntxVOL]

The CFP are paid for by Disney. They own it and select the ranking committee. Why would anyone expect the process to be fair? Oh wait, maybe because that's the way it's portrayed to the public. The fact is, Disney tilts the scales to get teams/matchups to maximize eyeballs. There is nothing "fair" about the selection or ranking process.

 

[whobethis16]

Well it was 35-14 until almost the 4th quarter- and I feel like they reward how you play most recently (Notre dame all season) . This isn’t just a Vols convo that’s why I made multiple points like Georgia tech and Miami discrepancy.

Your last point- I think that is what bothers me.. the committee changes what they think trumps what and when it seems. They aren’t consistent whether it’s in season or season to season.

No it wasn't. It was 28-14 at the half, 28-21 a little over midway in the 3rd, 35-21 after 3.

It isn't a Vols convo, yet the very first sentence in your very first post is crying about "USC is ahead of us"? Makes sense.

 

[RockiesTop22]

.

 

[RockiesTop22]

It isn't a Vols convo, yet the very first sentence in your very first post is crying about "USC is ahead of us"? Makes sense.

I said it isn’t JUST a vols convo.. take your time and it will make sense. This about the CFP- just like the title says.

 

[whobethis16]

I said it isn’t JUST a vols convo.. take your time and it will make sense that this about the CFP. Just like the title says.

Ok, now address my edit regarding that "Oregon blowout".

 

[RockiesTop22]

Ok, now address my edit regarding that "Oregon blowout".

I guess I recollected that score sequence wrong- good call out.

 

[txbo]

More playoff games equals more money. The playoffs will expand.

 

[RockiesTop22]

USC has 1 win over a top 25 team and a loss to an unranked team. Their overall resume is probably a little better, though, even though I think we would beat them.
A&M has a road win over Notre Dame. Both them and Indiana have 2 wins over 7-4 unranked teams although I would say wins @lsu and @Missouri are more impressive than home vs Illinois and @Iowa. Other than that, there is nothing of value on either resume. A&M is higher in all the metrics.
Ole Miss' win @Oklahoma is more impressive than Oregon's home win over USC. Out side of that, Ole Miss has wins over 9-2 Tulane and 7-4 LSU compared to Oregon's wins over 7-4 Iowa and Minnesota and Northwestern, who are both 6-5.

I wouldn't say any of those are nonsensical, though. To me, the most nonsensical ranking is Notre Dame.

Notre Dame has ranked wins over USC and Pitt and a win over unranked Navy.
Miami has the same record, a head to head win over ND and a win over South Florida.
BYU has 1 loss @ Texas Tech, ranked win @Arizona and over Utah and wins over three 7-4 teams.
Alabama has the bad loss @FSU but has the same record with ranked wins @Georgia, home over us and Vandy, and wins over two 7-4 teams.
Notre Dame really shouldn't be ranked ahead of any of those teams. It's debatable if they should be ahead of Utah.

Notre dame logic is always separate

 

[deatojl]

FSU has a quality win. Tennessee does not. Actually 2. Their win over Wake is better than any of UT's.

Okay, now you're just trolling. At this point, you should probably leave this discussion to Vol fans and concern yourself more with surviving the voodoo curse at Jordan-Hare this weekend.

 

[whobethis16]

Said it before! Will say it again!
Facts=3 losses to 3-top 10 teams

Facts: only win against a team with a winning record is against an FCS team.

 

[ru4real-really?]

UT also has zero quality wins.

Loss to Ga showed how the better team does not always win! One play resulting in a 14 point swing changes the outcome against a Bama team we beat up all afternoon! Ok remains a mystery but there is no way this is not a top ten team! Check with Vandy Saturday night! Quality wins my ass!

 

[deatojl]

Loss to Ga showed how the better team does not always win! One play resulting in a 14 point swing changes the outcome against a Bama team we beat up all afternoon! Ok remains a mystery but there is no way this is not a top ten team! Check with Vandy Saturday night! Quality wins my ass!

Bama's win over Georgia shows that, as well.

 

[whobethis16]

Loss to Ga showed how the better team does not always win! One play resulting in a 14 point swing changes the outcome against a Bama team we beat up all afternoon! Ok remains a mystery but there is no way this is not a top ten team! Check with Vandy Saturday night! Quality wins my ass!

Beat up all afternoon? Tennessee never had a lead and only had it tied (not counting 0-0) for 2:19 of game time. There's no consolation for "almost winning", especially not for 3 of them.