'25 Recruiting Forum: Official Tennessee versus Oklahoma Pre-game/Game Thread

#76
#76
HoleInTheRoof said:
Line continues to drop. Now at Tennessee -2.5

54% of the tickets are for Oklahoma, but 96% of the money wagered is on Tennessee

With so much of the money on Tennessee minus, it makes no sense for the line to keep dropping like it is.

Something smells about this game
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Seems the betting has been this way the last few games for us. Line seemed to go a little opposite of the money. I’ll be interested to see where the sharp money goes on Saturday. I wonder if Vegas just doesn’t trust our defense? Who knows. Surely we aren’t getting a screw you crew for this game.
 
#77
#77
OGbabyaviVol said:
Seems the betting has been this way the last few games for us. Line seemed to go a little opposite of the money. I’ll be interested to see where the sharp money goes on Saturday. I wonder if Vegas just doesn’t trust our defense? Who knows. Surely we aren’t getting a screw you crew for this game.
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Sharp money bets early in the week. Casuals bet game day.
 
#78
#78
HoleInTheRoof said:
Sharp money bets early in the week. Casuals bet game day.
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I don’t think that’s accurate. Sharps wait until last minute for any injuries that come up that might influence the game (and probably until ref crews are assigned). Casual bettors don’t know any better. @Enki_Amenra is that an accurate statement?
 
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#79
#79
HoleInTheRoof said:
Line continues to drop. Now at Tennessee -2.5

54% of the tickets are for Oklahoma, but 96% of the money wagered is on Tennessee

With so much of the money on Tennessee minus, it makes no sense for the line to keep dropping like it is.

Something smells about this game
Click to expand...
Bunch of parlay adds and casuals thinking maybe they make some easy money. Not a big bet to go Oklahoma with those margins if you think OU has a legit shot, and they’ve been overhyped all year. Big money big on Vols. 37-27 good guys
 
#80
#80
OGbabyaviVol said:
I don’t think that’s accurate. Sharps wait until last minute for any injuries that come up that might influence the game (and probably until ref crews are assigned). Casual bettors don’t know any better. @Enki_Amenra is that an accurate statement?
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No, sharp money comes in on friday some and really mostly Saturday just a couple hours before kick-off. . . .
 
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#83
#83
Enki_Amenra said:
No, sharp money comes in on friday some and really mostly Saturday just a couple hours before kick-off. . . .
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ChatGPT told me otherwise.

I’m not arguing one way or the other because I don’t know. It was always explained to me that sharps get in early. Which makes sense for me that it came in early here as 56% of the wagers are for Oklahoma but a perverted percentage of the money is on Tennessee minus. Meaning all the casuals are betting Oklahoma plus but the big money betters are on Tennessee minus.

I just can’t figure out why the line isn’t adjusting for a 50/50 split
 
#84
#84
ChatGPT would be incorrect in this instance. Why would you bet on something a week before it happens and not be able to account for all types of additional information that you can gain over the next 6 days? That is illogical. Sharp bettors are sharp bettors because they do not do things that are illogical.
 
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#87
#87
therickbol said:
ChatGPT would be incorrect in this instance. Why would you bet on something a week before it happens and not be able to account for all types of additional information that you can gain over the next 6 days? That is illogical. Sharp bettors are sharp bettors because they do not do things that are illogical.
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Why would sharp bettors have an advantage with additional information throughout the week? The books have the same information, and will adjust the line accordingly.

It can go either way, but sharp bettors typically place their bets early. Very early. Within hours of the line going up.

They have a model/method for predicting games that they believe is better than the models or methods Vegas is using. By betting early, it's model vs model. If you wait, public money comes in and informs Vegas how to move the line to keep the money even.

Now, if you think the public is wrong... Sure. Wait and put in your bet right before kickoff. But that isn't generally how it is done.
 
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#88
#88
OGbabyaviVol said:
I don’t think that’s accurate. Sharps wait until last minute for any injuries that come up that might influence the game (and probably until ref crews are assigned). Casual bettors don’t know any better. @Enki_Amenra is that an accurate statement?
Click to expand...
I've seen a lot of sharp money come in early especially if they feel the value is really good early on which triggers some early line movement. Say the line is released late Saturday night/Sunday morning, they will bet when the books open. Sharps (and some of them are the same sharps) will also bet right before the game like on gameday or a couple hours before.
 
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#91
#91
Ten_Titans said:
Why would sharp bettors have an advantage with additional information throughout the week? The books have the same information, and will adjust the line accordingly.

It can go either way, but sharp bettors typically place their bets early. Very early. Within hours of the line going up.

They have a model/method for predicting games that they believe is better than the models or methods Vegas is using. By betting early, it's model vs model. If you wait, public money comes in and informs Vegas how to move the line to keep the money even.

Now, if you think the public is wrong... Sure. Wait and put in your bet right before kickoff. But that isn't generally how it is done.
Click to expand...

There are times where sharp money just flat out thinks the line is wrong from the beginning at bet early. Absolutely. They also wait on bets where there are uncertainties and make sure they have all the most accurate game day information. Why would they worry about the public moving the line when the public, as a whole betting group, is a terrible gauge? I would argue there are plenty of times where the uninformed public money would push a line in exactly the direction the sharp bettors would want.
 
#92
#92
Gilbert said:
Man it’s going to be a fun next few weeks if we win tomorrow. Playoff projections, watching the chaos unfold around us, all leading up to the trip to Gainesville.

I want this one bad.
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We take care of business tomorrow and in Gainesville, I don't think Heupel lets Vandy walk out of Neyland with a win and I think we're in the playoff.
 
#93
#93
ChatGPT thinks we barely win

Predicting the outcome of sports match-ups is always uncertain, but based on recent analysis:


  • The Tennessee Volunteers are narrow favorites at home over the Oklahoma Sooners. FOX Sports+2CBS Sports+2
  • On the other hand, statistical models give Oklahoma a slight edge (approx. 53%) to win outright. SI+1

If I had to pick one team to win, I’d lean Tennessee, given their home advantage and strong offense — but it’s a close game and Oklahoma’s defense could tip the scale.
 
#94
#94
HoleInTheRoof said:
ChatGPT thinks we barely win

Predicting the outcome of sports match-ups is always uncertain, but based on recent analysis:


  • The Tennessee Volunteers are narrow favorites at home over the Oklahoma Sooners. FOX Sports+2CBS Sports+2
  • On the other hand, statistical models give Oklahoma a slight edge (approx. 53%) to win outright. SI+1

If I had to pick one team to win, I’d lean Tennessee, given their home advantage and strong offense — but it’s a close game and Oklahoma’s defense could tip the scale.
Click to expand...

why do people keep using chatgpt to do what google already does?
 
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#96
#96
Ten_Titans said:
Why would sharp bettors have an advantage with additional information throughout the week? The books have the same information, and will adjust the line accordingly.

It can go either way, but sharp bettors typically place their bets early. Very early. Within hours of the line going up.

They have a model/method for predicting games that they believe is better than the models or methods Vegas is using. By betting early, it's model vs model. If you wait, public money comes in and informs Vegas how to move the line to keep the money even.

Now, if you think the public is wrong... Sure. Wait and put in your bet right before kickoff. But that isn't generally how it is done.
Click to expand...
some might do it differently but my close friends are the biggest handicappers(sharps who sell picks) on Instagram and they are sitting at a book in vegas and putting their bets in minutes before kickoff.

The other sharps there are typically doing the same thing.
 
#98
#98

Tackle, especially in space​

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There’s plenty of things that need to improve defensively, but first and foremost it starts with tackling. You simply can’t give up a 71 yard touchdown where the ball travels sideways for 8 yards.

Tennessee is averaging right at 12 missed tackles a game and Vol opponents have more yards after catch this year than Tennessee does.
The Vol defense has struggled to tackle at all levels, but the real struggles has been in space. Offenses are going to continue to throw stuff underneath and get it out of the quarterback’s hands quickly. That stresses the safeties, linebacker and the star position in space. Tennessee has to be much better in that area. Kentucky had 230 yards after the catch last week.
Tennessee’s defense has plenty to improve on but it starts with their ability to tackle, especially in space.

Win up front in the offensive trenches​

Oklahoma will be the most dynamic defensive front that Tennessee has gone against all season. The Sooners have 29 sacks on the year and they have 89 TFL’s. That’s 27 more TFL’s than Tennessee. Twenty-five Sooners have TFL’s and 18 have sacks. This is a good defensive front and front seven. Now, they did feast on Auburn and South Carolina who are two of the worst offensive lines in the country. In fact, Auburn has given up more sacks than any team in the country.
Oklahoma is only giving up 85 yards a game on the ground.
Tennessee hasn’t been elite running the football outside of the Syracuse and Arkansas games. Tennessee didn’t rush for 150 yards against Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama or Kentucky.
Tennessee rushed for 108 yards last week but 74 of that came in the fourth quarter. Ole Miss had 116 yards rushing last week against the Sooners.
The Vols must be better in the offensive front this week than they have been the last couple of weeks especially. Two weeks ago they gave up 4 sacks. Last week they gave up one and struggled to run the ball.

Be creative​

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It would be a surprise if Tennessee got a lot of one on one man coverage, but Oklahoma is confident so they will likely get some as they did a year ago.
Ole Miss had two plays of 30+ yards last week. So there will be some opportunities but they will be limited. Tennessee has to be creative offensively and defensively. If Tim Banks has been holding back any blitzes there’s no need to keep any of them in your pocket.
Offensively we haven’t seen as much “new” stuff the last few weeks as we did early in the year. Last week they did line up Braylon Staley in the backfield and motion him to get a better read on the defense. Lighting up the scoreboard this week is much harder than a week ago. Tennessee has to draw up more stuff this week and they might even need to get creative in the kicking game.

Somehow avoid a freebie and find a freebie​

Aside from tackling here’s the other defensive challenge, Tennessee can’t give up freebies. Busts are going to happen, but they can’t be busts where the band starts to play. You can’t give up the wide open deep ball like you did a week ago and frankly Tennessee has been lucky to avoid more of that this year. Mississippi State should have had two more big play touchdowns on busted coverages. Tennessee just can’t give an Oklahoma team who hasn’t scored more than 26 points against a power 4 team a freebie.
Offensively you can’t throw a pick 6. Don’t muff a punt. Nothing cheap.
Conversely, defensively find a way to steal some points like you did at Mississippi State and like you did last week at Kentucky. Tennessee leads the nation in defensive scores. When you aren’t where anywhere you thought you would be defensively, you gotta keep finding a way to be opportunistic.

Spy Mateer​

Tennessee has to find a way to disrupt quarterback John Mateer and also not let him get going with his legs.
Tennessee’s sack numbers have fallen off the last two games with only one sack in the last eight quarters.
Ole Miss sacked Mateer 3 times last week. Can Tennessee start getting home again? Head coach Josh Heupel said the drop off in sack production is due to a couple of different factors.
“A little bit of a combination of everything,” Heupel said. “Teams have gotten it out quickly. Sometimes there’s chipping on the edges and that typically buys them a little bit more time. It also slows down their route structure. So combination of all those things, running quarterbacks, you’re always, you got to stay on the right side of the line of applying pressure, disrupting the pocket, but not letting them get out.”
Last week Cutter Boley had 34 yards rushing on 6 carries. Half of those were on scrambles where he twice converted a third down with his feet. Against Arkansas, Tennessee sacked Taylen Green 5 times but also gave up 63 yards and a score to him.
Tennessee has to play within their rush lanes and they can’t freelance. They also can’t let Mateer have ally to run it either. Tennessee has to have edge pressure and a push in the interior to squeeze Mateer. Oklahoma has surrendered 17 sacks this season.

Joey must continue to shine​

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Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar was terrific in Lexington against the Wildcats going 20 of 26 for 396 yards and he was a perfect 7 for 7 on deep throws.
Aguilar continues to lead the SEC in passing and is having a terrific year. It’s crazy his story is not getting more attention.
It will get more attention if he plays well Saturday night. If the Vols are going to beat Oklahoma, Aguilar has to play well. Tennessee is going to need to score points.
While Aguilar is putting up big numbers, the 24-year old said after the Kentucky game that he is still missing too many things in leading this offense.
“I definitely could be better. I missed a lot of reads that could have kept us out there on the field. I was greedy on a couple of drives tonight and got us off the field on third down,” Aguilar said.
Heupel called it a special performance in Lexington. Tennessee needs it to be a big night for Aguilar under the lights.
Last week Ole Miss transfer Trinidad Chambliss threw for 315 yards in the Rebels win in Norman.

Don’t let OU’s ground game get going​

Quietly, Oklahoma’s traditional run game has gotten better. Last week Xavier Robinson had 109 yards on 12 carries including a 65 yard run.
Tory Blaylock had 101 yards on 19 carries the week before.
The last two weeks, the Sooners have been more committed to the traditional run game. Tennessee has had their struggles in stopping the run. Georgia ran for 198 yards, Mississippi State 203, Arkansas 240, Alabama 120 and Kentucky 146.
Tennessee has to be better in defending the run. They have to play their gaps better. They have to tackle better.
The Vols must limit Oklahoma’s balance.

Win the middle 8​

Last week the middle 8 was the difference in the game. The week before it was the difference in the other direction as the Vols only won the back half of the middle eight thanks to the end of half pick 6.
Winning the last four minutes of the first half and the first four of the second half has always been a big deal. Right now with Tennessee’s offense as capable as they are and with the defense having the issues they are having stealing points to end the half can be a separator.
Defensively Tennessee has been pretty good to start the second half only giving up a field goal and a touchdown in 8 games. Offensively Tennessee has scored on 7 of 8 possessions to start the second half.
The middle 8 minutes of the football game has been pivotal for Tennessee and they need to win it again Saturday night.

-- VQ
 
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