Recruiting Forum Football Talk IX

#58,752
#58,752
SmyrnaATLVolisback said:
Portal should be crazy for us this year. My guess:


1 QB (depth)
1 WR (only if big time player)
1 RB
1-3 OL (depending on transfers)


5-6 DB
1 LB
3-4 DL

I think we see a lot of DB transfers that aren’t playing plus just players leaving for nfl or graduation.
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I think it should be a very light haul on the offensive side. Position of interest would be a top flight upperclassman OT (if available) and interior OL.

Defense could use a HAUL though. I would love a couple of true DT bodies, need help at safety, would like a CB or two, and most likely need a Star. I would take a LB if someone great was available, but it isn’t a pressing need as I like our young talent there.
 
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#58,754
#58,754
Vols410 said:
I've been diving into defensive numbers again this morning. I've been struggling a ton with the discrepancy between what I've been seeing versus what the predictive numbers are saying about the quality of our defense. Watching the games it feels like our defense is in the lower half of the SEC and the traditional stats (points + total yards) agree.

I'm seeing three major factors that play into this.
1. Our ability to create turnovers and generate points is wildly underrated.
2. Our SOS to-date has been really good. (We've played 9th hardest schedule in terms of offenses faced.)
3. A lot of the stuff that looks bad in stats has been in garbage time.

Points allowed doesn't tell the whole story, particularly with Heupel's philosophy. Many (falsely) claim Banks of being overly conservative because they see him allow a lot of dink and dunk down the field, but that's not at all true. Heupel's / Banks' entire philosophy is built around creating havoc: negative plays and turnovers. To do that, they're content to let drives stretch on for a bit to allow more opportunities to create big negative plays, and it's actually working quite well.

To help account for this, I've taken points allowed per drive, and I've done two things to it:
1. Remove garbage time
2. Adjust for turnovers. (-3.5 points for a turnover, -7 points for a defensive touchdown).

When you do this for all teams, we go from #113 in the nation in points allowed per game to #56, because the defense is generating 10 points per game above the average FBS team.

When you account for our schedule, the defense gets bumped up into the top 25-30 range, and in the upper half of the SEC.

We've also held every P5 opponent under their season average by this metric.

Syracuse: (Adjusted Points-per-Drive) 1.14 -> (Against Tennessee) 0.95
Georgia: 3.18 -> 2.21
Miss St: 2.04 -> 1.43
Arkansas: 2.49 -> 1.86
Alabama: 3.05 -> 2.72
Kentucky: 1.44 -> 1.17

TLDR: The defense is a lot better than the traditional stats show, because we're creating more points off of turnovers than anyone in the country. They need to start getting credit for generating 20% of the points of the #2 scoring offense in the country.
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I can absolutely see your logic and the stats that underpin it. Sadly for me the eye test shows we absolutely suck at making a tackle and closing out what should be our easiest stops - 3rd and 4th and long. It defies logic a team that can cause so much havoc and hard hits cannot take better angles and wrap up at critical moments. If we did that this is the defense you speak of.
 
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#58,755
#58,755
Orangeburst said:
that OU defense spider web is almost perfect
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I know you're supposed to say this before you play a team but Kiffin said it's the best defense in the country. Unfortunately if you do manage to put up a decent amount of points on their defense, their offense has trouble keeping up, especially if you're forcing them to do it through the air.

The goal of a Josh Heupel team is always to win shootouts. And the goal on defense is to force other teams to beat you through the air. That's not exactly a new winning football formula. It's been the foundation of some of the best defenses in history.

Sometimes the scores are low as a result of playing other really good SEC defenses, but the philosophy is simple: finish at the end of the game with the most points. People overanalyze everything that is involved in that and forget to just worry about the results. And maybe the results are not a Championship this year! Have we really moved the goalposts that much? Playoffs are still in the cards. How many expected our offense to play this well? Forget the defense. Their numbers look bad largely due to the success of the offense. Bend and don't break applies to the scoreboard too. The goal, again, is to finish ahead!
 
#58,756
#58,756
I stopped listening to country music a long time ago. That applies to pretty much all modern music, but Gator fans think this is about Morgan Wallen. Which will be interesting to me to see how Tennessee fans react.

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#58,761
#58,761
RandomUTfan said:
I know you're supposed to say this before you play a team but Kiffin said it's the best defense in the country. Unfortunately if you do manage to put up a decent amount of points on their defense, their offense has trouble keeping up, especially if you're forcing them to do it through the air.

The goal of a Josh Heupel team is always to win shootouts. And the goal on defense is to force other teams to beat you through the air. That's not exactly a new winning football formula. It's been the foundation of some of the best defenses in history.

Sometimes the scores are low as a result of playing other really good SEC defenses, but the philosophy is simple: finish at the end of the game with the most points. People overanalyze everything that is involved in that and forget to just worry about the results. And maybe the results are not a Championship this year! Have we really moved the goalposts that much? Playoffs are still in the cards. How many expected our offense to play this well? Forget the defense. Their numbers look bad largely due to the success of the offense. Bend and don't break applies to the scoreboard too. The goal, again, is to finish ahead!
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Analytics are success rates across metrics. sure they are flawed and only a part in the macro sense as they are only micro assessments, but they are a factor in winning and losing.

All the other stuff, you are projecting, as I have not moved goalposts or said anything about the success or ceiling of our team.

You sure like to argue with folks.
 
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#58,762
#58,762
Ulysees E. McGill said:
I think Alex should stay there and finish building the monster that Leavitt and Lee Roy had started creating before all the stupid stuff happened and curtailed it for the last 15 years....USF definitely the resources to be a monster...most people that have never been around TBay don't understand that.

The Bulls are the only other college program I've ever supported.
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I am an alumni of both UT and USF. USF is a sleeping giant that is starting to wake up. Everything you said is spot on. They have plenty of wealthy boosters, a huge alumni base, are in a sports-oriented city, and have an insane amount of high school talent in that area.
Golesh will get all the support he needs to make them a real contender.
 
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#58,763
#58,763
RandomUTfan said:
I truly admire that you put all this work into this. I gave up trying to convince anyone. Clearly they need Tim Banks to be a garbage coach so I let them believe that.
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Banks was a Broyle's finalist last year. We have the highest % of freshmen on the squad in the SEC (49.5%). I think there is an issue with effort in tackling at the point of contact.
 
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#58,766
#58,766
IASIPNeyland said:
Banks was a Broyle's finalist last year. We have the highest % of freshmen on the squad in the SEC (49.5%). I think there is an issue with effort in tackling at the point of contact.
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There are going to always be issues. I think the primary issue is fan expectations. They expected our defense to be good this year and our offense to be okay. The opposite, seemingly, has been true, but I argue that there's a correlation between the defense looking like it has and the offense playing at a really high level. We don't fake injuries to give our defense breaks for no reason. The clip we move at stresses any defense.
 
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#58,767
#58,767
gordonr24 said:
Look at OU’s remaining schedule. With a loss on a Saturday, their season could come off the rails and limp to a 7-5 finish. That wouldn’t sit well with the fanbase.
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Sort of like 2024 after we beat them in Norman. They ended the season losing 7 of 10 games (counting our game), but did manage to beat Ala.
 
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#58,768
#58,768
IASIPNeyland said:
I am an alumni of both UT and USF. USF is a sleeping giant that is starting to wake up. Everything you said is spot on. They have plenty of wealthy boosters, a huge alumni base, are in a sports-oriented city, and have an insane amount of high school talent in that area.
Golesh will get all the support he needs to make them a real contender.f
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Hey, we have that in common (UT and USF alumni). Early on in USF football, it looked like they could be a beast. But, recruiting has not really been all that strong. They need to start pulling some of the big talent away from the 'big three' in the state. But yes, like Central Florida, huge school with lots of talent in the area.
 
#58,770
#58,770
RandomUTfan said:
There are going to always be issues. I think the primary issue is fan expectations. They expected our defense to be good this year and our offense to be okay. The opposite, seemingly, has been true, but I argue that there's a correlation between the defense looking like it has and the offense playing at a really high level. We don't fake injuries to give our defense breaks for no reason. The clip we move at stresses any defense.
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My biggest concern is the lack of depth in year 5. I understand injuries but we should not have cataclysmic drop off in talent when the first guy goes down.
 
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#58,773
#58,773
RandomUTfan said:
There are going to always be issues. I think the primary issue is fan expectations. They expected our defense to be good this year and our offense to be okay. The opposite, seemingly, has been true, but I argue that there's a correlation between the defense looking like it has and the offense playing at a really high level. We don't fake injuries to give our defense breaks for no reason. The clip we move at stresses any defense.
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Agreed. I believe that is why we have the defensive philosophy we have. Last year, we had more experience and less injuries and were able to force more teams to kick field goals.
I will say that the yards after 1st contact the defense is yielding has been troubling. But the game reps those freshmen are getting is going to pay off big time for us next year.
 
#58,775
#58,775
Weezer said:
You said, "several to transfer". I agreed with Boo and the possibility of Beasley. Don't necessarily agree with any of the freshmen leaving.

NFL/graduation can't be helped.

The bigger question marks, IMO, are Hood and Gibson. Hood could choose to go pro. Hope he comes back. And Gibson, just how severe is his injury? Is it career threatening? Can he come back and return to form?

With all that said, I hope we go to the portal for help. We need it.
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That’s fine. And I could be wrong. Just basing my opinion on what AP and others have said. They say we will spend for DBs and portal a lot for them. I hope the freshmen stay but they may see a ton of new faces and think I won’t play. We shall see!

Gibson will be fine by early next year. Hood is likely going pro but I am sure he will get his draft grade before determining.
 
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