Experts are on a run of bad luck lately. Climate change predictions, Covid vaccine promises, jobs statistics, and economic analysis of the effect of the Trump administration’s tariffs have failed to improve experts' credibility. | Politics
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"Recently, Trump canned the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer,
claiming she had been incompetent and inaccurate with her monthly estimates of job growth in America. Critics of Trump’s move accused him of “shooting the messenger,” with former Labor secretary Elaine Chao defending the professionalism and security of the BLS’s survey.
“Imagine you’re in a job and you do the job so terribly that you are off by a massive factor,” Schweizer says. “Even before Trump was president, in March of 2024, BLS had to revise by 818,000 the number of jobs that were actually created. During the Biden administration, they overstated the number of jobs in the US economy by 1.18
million. That’s approximately 36 percent of all the new jobs” they thought had been created.
The problem with the BLS numbers being wrong is that they are one of the key metrics that the Federal Reserve looks at to make decisions about interest rates.
“Imagine you’re an accountant, and your numbers are off by 36 percent. Imagine you’re a plumber performing a plumbing job and your estimates are off by 36 percent of what needs to be done. Would that not be grounds for consideration to be fired?”
“This is something the expert class has created for themselves,” Schweizer says. “They overstate their ability to know things and, when challenged, appeal to their authority,” Schweizer says.
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