President Donald Trump - J.D. Vance Administration

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#35,477
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#35,482
Orangeslice13 said:
You’d think tourism would be on sale…..but it’s not.
It’s still sold out and full price meaning it hasn’t actually cost us a single dollar
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Looking at beach house rental prices and availability, travel seems to be doing just fine.

San Blas is even outrageous now. A week next summer for beachfront there is in the $12k-15k range.
 
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#35,489
kiddiedoc said:
Looking at beach house rental prices and availability, travel seems to be doing just fine.

San Blas is even outrageous now. A week next summer for beachfront there is in the $12k-15k range.
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We stopped going to Cape San Blas a few years ago because of the double of pricing after Covid/Hurricane Michael. Had a good run of 10 years of Webers Doughnuts and Indian Pass Raw Bar. Wearing my St. Joes Shrimp Company shirt as I type.
 
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Buddy’s Bandit said:
Good morning!

Today’s question (along with the previous questions) for the Liberals:

1). Should a non-citizen be allowed to vote?
2). If found, should fraud be eliminated within Medicaid/Medicare?
3). Should males be allowed to compete in women’s sports?
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Most Americans are going to answer:
No
Yes
No

Regardless of ideology too. Are you trying to identify the fringe here?
 
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#35,497


The decline in response rates for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys, specifically the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey used for the monthly nonfarm payroll figures and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), is a notable issue affecting the reliability of labor market data. Here's a breakdown based on available information and critical analysis:CES Survey (Nonfarm Payrolls)
  • Pre-Pandemic Response Rate: Around 60%. The CES survey, which produces the nonfarm payroll employment figures, relies on a sample of approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies, covering about 631,000 worksites.


  • Post-Pandemic Response Rate: Dropped to around 42%. This decline has been attributed to various factors, including survey fatigue, reduced trust in institutions, and operational challenges for businesses during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • Implications: Lower response rates can introduce sampling bias and reduce the precision of estimates. The BLS uses statistical techniques like benchmarking to the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to adjust for nonresponse, but significant drops in participation may still affect the accuracy of monthly estimates. For instance, revisions to payroll data, such as the 258,000 downward adjustment for May and June 2025 combined, reflect challenges in initial data collection.



JOLTS Survey
  • Current Response Rate: Approximately one-third (around 33%). The JOLTS survey samples about 21,000 nonfarm business and government establishments, using the QCEW and Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) as its sampling frame.


  • Pre-Pandemic Context: While specific pre-pandemic response rates for JOLTS are not explicitly detailed in the provided sources, the general trend of declining response rates across BLS surveys suggests JOLTS has followed a similar pattern. The lower response rate is concerning because JOLTS provides critical data on job openings, hires, quits, layoffs, and separations, which are key indicators of labor market dynamics.


  • Implications: A response rate of one-third increases the risk of nonresponse bias, particularly if certain industries or regions are underrepresented. The BLS mitigates this through benchmarking to CES employment levels and a birth/death model to account for new or closing businesses, but these adjustments rely on assumptions that may not fully capture real-time labor market shifts.



Broader Context and Critical Analysis
  • Pandemic Impact: The decline in response rates likely stems from disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, including business closures, remote work, and reduced administrative capacity to respond to voluntary surveys. The QCEW, which covers about 95% of nonfarm payroll jobs, serves as a more comprehensive data source for benchmarking, but its lag (e.g., annual revisions based on March data) limits its ability to correct real-time inaccuracies.


  • Skepticism of Official Narratives: Some economists argue that the BLS’s adjustments, like the birth/death model, may overestimate job growth by underaccounting for business closures post-pandemic or due to economic pressures like high interest rates. This has fueled debates about whether nonfarm payroll gains are overstated, as seen in critiques of the birth/death adjustment adding 1.35 million jobs in a 12-month period.


  • Comparative Reliability: The CES survey’s higher sample size (121,000 vs. 21,000 for JOLTS) and broader coverage make it relatively more robust, but both surveys suffer from declining participation. Alternative data sources, like payroll-processing platforms (e.g., Homebase), claim to offer more real-time insights, though they lack the BLS’s standardized methodology.

Conclusion: The drop in response rates for the CES (from 60% to 42%) and JOLTS (33%) surveys since the pandemic highlights challenges in capturing accurate labor market data. While the BLS employs adjustments to mitigate nonresponse, lower participation increases the risk of bias and may contribute to significant revisions, as seen in recent payroll data. These issues underscore the need for caution when interpreting monthly labor market reports and suggest that supplementary data sources or improved survey methods may be necessary to enhance reliability.
 
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