BigOrangeMojo
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All things STOCKS
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Thunder Good-Oil
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UPS has more recently split from Amazon. FedEx has a head start of several years.
Both do much more than overnight and time guaranteed deliveries.
Fuel and labor costs are major factors in their profitability. ME disruptions could affect near term fuel expense. Longer term, they’d both benefit immensely if US refineries ever adapt to primarily using US oil as a bigger part of the mix.
Amazon has been exploiting the USPS. If the government makes them pay more of a fair share for mail, then UPS and FedEx should benefit. They’ve both moved pretty far from Amazon, but e-commerce is still expanding at a fast pace.
Both are economically sensitive transportation companies. But they’re pretty well diversified in the space with retail, ground transportation, air transport, express deliveries, shipping and LTL shipping, logistics, sorting, and international operations. FedEx might be due for some sort of reorganization. FedEx also uses a lot of 3rd party contractors in their system.
Neither is likely to fail in our lifetimes. The role of the USPS and of cross border shipping (tariff driven re-ordering of trade) are unknowns. EVs are probably very much in their futures. Autonomous vehicles maybe to a degree - especially for long haul trucking possibly. Maybe someday delivery vehicles will utilize an AV model with less skilled package runners on board that don’t also have to navigate the vehicles. But AVs might be more difficult to incorporate than robo taxis. Package deliveries have many more destinations than RTs. AI might bring cost savings to interfacing with customers, but maybe not so much with their logistics and sorting as they’re quite advanced systems already.
Both do much more than overnight and time guaranteed deliveries.
Fuel and labor costs are major factors in their profitability. ME disruptions could affect near term fuel expense. Longer term, they’d both benefit immensely if US refineries ever adapt to primarily using US oil as a bigger part of the mix.
Amazon has been exploiting the USPS. If the government makes them pay more of a fair share for mail, then UPS and FedEx should benefit. They’ve both moved pretty far from Amazon, but e-commerce is still expanding at a fast pace.
Both are economically sensitive transportation companies. But they’re pretty well diversified in the space with retail, ground transportation, air transport, express deliveries, shipping and LTL shipping, logistics, sorting, and international operations. FedEx might be due for some sort of reorganization. FedEx also uses a lot of 3rd party contractors in their system.
Neither is likely to fail in our lifetimes. The role of the USPS and of cross border shipping (tariff driven re-ordering of trade) are unknowns. EVs are probably very much in their futures. Autonomous vehicles maybe to a degree - especially for long haul trucking possibly. Maybe someday delivery vehicles will utilize an AV model with less skilled package runners on board that don’t also have to navigate the vehicles. But AVs might be more difficult to incorporate than robo taxis. Package deliveries have many more destinations than RTs. AI might bring cost savings to interfacing with customers, but maybe not so much with their logistics and sorting as they’re quite advanced systems already.
Thunder Good-Oil
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YankeeVol
Let's Go Peay
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Thunder Good-Oil
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05_never_again
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I'm surprised at how sanguine the equity market (and frankly, the oil market too) has been about the Israel/Iran situation. I know they haven't hit any oil facilities and Iran hasn't blocked the Strait of Hormuz (maybe they don't even have the capability of doing that at this point), but the markets seemingly could not care less about it. Even oil itself is only up about $5/barrel since it started.
The consensus for a long time was that if Israel and Iran ever got into direct conflict with one another instead of through proxies, then it was instant WWIII. Pretty wild how that has happened now several times over the last year or so without further escalation.
Thunder Good-Oil
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I guess there are opposing elements. Violence and the potential for much more. But also neutering Iran’s nuclear weapons aspirations. Then other ME players like the Saudis aren’t going ballistic. Iran potentially replacing this government after a failed 50 year run.
Then throw in No Kings demonstrations and rioting on top of China tariff negotiations and you’d think the volatility would be off the charts. Maybe the Trump Tariff Crash and recovery has created a lot of apathy in terms of short term equity markets pricing.
05_never_again
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Behind the scenes, I'm sure the Saudis are popping bottles over this. They aren't publicly because that'd be a bad look to their own citizens and the rest of the Arab would to be so openly supportive of something Israel is doing, but there is no doubt they are absolutely loving this. And Israel's demolition of Hezbollah and the Houthis.
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Thunder Good-Oil
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Thunder Good-Oil
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I’m not a follower of ME affairs, but I’d sure like to see what could happen if Iran’s citizens would overthrow the nuts in charge and return to their 1970s era society. Too bad the Shah was a bad player stealing from the people or maybe they’d already be there. They ought to be able to do it better today with more transparency. Big Oil can’t get away with the same level of **** either.
Thunder Good-Oil
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I’m adding World Kinect (WKC) to my watch list. Aviation and marine fuel player. I owned it several years ago when it was World Fuel Services. I’ll wait for the dust to settle a bit first. It’s only a $1.5B market cap and doesn’t have a lot of options available.
I think I’ll sell SMCI covered calls again since my short call options positions expired at the Friday close. I kind of want my shares to get called away. I’m not real confident that they won’t screw up royally once again.
I think I’ll sell SMCI covered calls again since my short call options positions expired at the Friday close. I kind of want my shares to get called away. I’m not real confident that they won’t screw up royally once again.
Thunder Good-Oil
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hog88
Your ray of sunshine
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Thunder Good-Oil
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With Roths it’s always good to include reliable dividend payers because it’s tax free returns.
Avoid risky company stock since there is no tax advantage from harvesting loses inside of Roths.
The bigger ETFs are great for putting in Roth accounts. DIA, SPY, VOO, IVV, and QQQ to mirror the DJIA, S & P 500, and NASDAQ 100. VTI is the definitive broad market exposure ETF.
The 11 (State Street) Select Sector ETFs are great for adding concentration in the various pieces of the S&P500. Currently I like XLE and XLV for energy and healthcare.
Select Sector SPDR ETFs - Sector Spiders ETFs | SPDR S&P Stock
If I only owned one stock it would be AMZN. They’re a modern day conglomerate and the various businesses have a lot of synergy. Google has been trying that, but they’re still highly dependent on search and advertising. I am optimistic about GOOGL and autonomous vehicles. AAPL is pretty good as well, but needs to unwind China manufacturing for US iPhones and they might be too heavily exposed to Chinese consumers. JNJ was the de facto diversified healthcare company not long ago. I think they’ll get back on track and benefit LT from the aging US demographics. A riskier healthcare company is Medtronic (MDT). They’ll be selling a **** ton of devices for several decades, but they also have a lot of competition.
Waste Management (WM) is another well run company that could run for a long time.
Thunder Good-Oil
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Yeah. The dividend yield is compressed now because the stock is up well over 100% since April 2024 when I first bought shares. Philip Morris is quickly transitioning to smoke-free nicotine products. Their Zyn product line is growing sales incredibly rapidly and it is far more profitable than their traditional tobacco products.
I hold a couple ETF’s (VOO & SCHD) in the Roths and may just buy more? The vast majority of my holdings in those accounts I’ve held for 5 - 15 years, but will occasionally make a move when I find a super strong buying opportunity. The ROTH’s are the last bucket of cash l’ll draw off of so unless things go south I’ll pass those $’s along to my heirs.With Roths it’s always good to include reliable dividend payers because it’s tax free returns.
Avoid risky company stock since there is no tax advantage from harvesting loses inside of Roths.
The bigger ETFs are great for putting in Roth accounts. DIA, SPY, VOO, IVV, and QQQ to mirror the DJIA, S & P 500, and NASDAQ 100. VTI is the definitive broad market exposure ETF.
The 11 (State Street) Select Sector ETFs are great for adding concentration in the various pieces of the S&P500. Currently I like XLE and XLV for energy and healthcare.
Select Sector SPDR ETFs - Sector Spiders ETFs | SPDR S&P Stock
www.sectorspdrs.com
If I only owned one stock it would be AMZN. They’re a modern day conglomerate and the various businesses have a lot of synergy. Google has been trying that, but they’re still highly dependent on search and advertising. I am optimistic about GOOGL and autonomous vehicles. AAPL is pretty good as well, but needs to unwind China manufacturing for US iPhones and they might be too heavily exposed to Chinese consumers. JNJ was the de facto diversified healthcare company not long ago. I think they’ll get back on track and benefit LT from the aging US demographics. A riskier healthcare company is Medtronic (MDT). They’ll be selling a **** ton of devices for several decades, but they also have a lot of competition.
Waste Management (WM) is another well run company that could run for a long time.
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