Trade Wars and Tariffs

#5,030
#5,030
EasternVol said:
Us changing our trade terms on a whim is being very unreliable. The profit in selling to a large economy or a small economy still depends on price, terms, and volume.
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We’ve been a very reliable trading partner. Right now it’s just chaotic, but will likely settle down and force team Trump to get more organized, practical and pragmatic wrt any trade deals as a result of the federal trade court ruling, otherwise he may get nothing.
 
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#5,032
#5,032
Vol737 said:
We’ve been a very reliable trading partner. Right now it’s just chaotic, but will likely settle down and force team Trump to get more organized, practical and pragmatic wrt any trade deals as a result of the federal trade court ruling, otherwise he may get nothing.
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The court ruling is outside the scope of many major industries. Getting nothing ain’t happening.
 
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#5,033
#5,033
Thunder Good-Oil said:
But we’ll have toilet paper and PPE.

Labor here might cost more here than exploited workers somewhere else, but there’s also income taxes being paid with domestic wages.

We are a net exporter of energy.

We ought to import to avoid regulations? Just dump toxins in somebody else’s backyard? How about instead fixing oppressive regulation here?
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lol, if trump actually fixed some of the regulation stuff he wouldn't have to do nearly as many tariffs.

it speaks volumes that Trump chose the stick as the first tool he tried, even when it hurts the average american; when there was a carrot that would have helped the average American right there in the tool box.
 
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#5,035
#5,035
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Reimagining trade including provisions for addressing grossly unbalanced activity. A surplus with Australia doesn’t offset the huge, total net deficit. Let’s trend in a better direction. Let’s make it clear what we expect with reciprocity or alternative concessions. Let’s end giving away favorable terms so that dollar store crap is more affordable.
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Can you explain why a net trade deficit is a problem that needs to be corrected?
 
#5,042
#5,042
BigOrangeMojo said:
TSMC is adding several facilities outside of Phoenix and we are paying them tens of billions of dollars to do so...
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The Biden Administration gave TSMC $6.6 billion for their first two plants. It should be noted that TSMC had already agreed to build those first two plants in 2020 while Trump was in office with NO government funding. The funding was iniated by the Biden Administration's CHIP Incentive Plan in 2023. TSMC has since increased the planned number of plants to 6 since Trump took office without any new government funding that I have seen.
 
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#5,043
#5,043
Vol423 said:
The Biden Administration gave TSMC billions of dollars for their first two plants. TSMC has since increased the planned number of plants to 6 since Trump took office without any new government funding that I have seen.
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There's a 25% Investment Tax Credit for them. Going to be a 45X credit as well.

They will net tens of billions from those plus the billions of handouts from Biden admin...
 
#5,045
#5,045
“Huge” net deficit was my comment. Jobs and taxes are two big downsides. China built their economy by having a very large surplus… mostly through their trade with the US.

It wouldn’t be as concerning if a deficit was bringing in products that served as inputs for valuable items being produced. Like China importing most of their energy and construction materials but building factories and infrastructure. I-phones come to mind. If American companies are selling enough of what’s produced in China to China and other users and that production value is greater than what are consumed here, then that’s not a bad outcome. So strike a deal with China to buy those phones. It’s my understanding that they’re buying more and more of their own brands. Probably after stealing the technology from us. Run a net deficit with the Netherlands because we’re taking their high end litho chip making equipment but using those machines to produce products of greater value by our chip makers, then fine. But the ASML machines might already be one of the excluded categories. I don’t claim to be an economist, but if you’re buying more than you’re selling you’re loosing wealth. Even worse if you’re buying unproductive assets..
 
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#5,046
#5,046
Vol737 said:
Which is it? I'm getting whiplash from all of this.
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Yesterday the US Trade Court blocked most of Trump's tariffs. Today, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (which oversees the US Trade Court), temporarily reinstated those tariffs pending a later hearing.
 
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#5,047
#5,047
BigOrangeMojo said:

Loading…

www.tsmc.com
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I didn’t find the description of our investment of tens of billions, but if TSM is creating hundreds of billions of manufacturing capacity in exchange then it’s a good arrangement. Our payoff is having greater control of the chip supply channel and the jobs that went to Americans.

Is it one plant that just recently came online (I thought somebody posted that there are now three), with a second with going live three years out, and a third having just broken ground?
 
#5,049
#5,049
Thunder Good-Oil said:
“Huge” net deficit was my comment. Jobs and taxes are two big downsides. China built their economy by having a very large surplus… mostly through their trade with the US.

It wouldn’t be as concerning if a deficit was bringing in products that served as inputs for valuable items being produced. Like China importing most of their energy and construction materials but building factories and infrastructure. I-phones come to mind. If American companies are selling enough of what’s produced in China to China and other users and that production value is greater than what are consumed here, then that’s not a bad outcome. So strike a deal with China to buy those phones. It’s my understanding that they’re buying more and more of their own brands. Probably after stealing the technology from us. Run a net deficit with the Netherlands because we’re taking their high end litho chip making equipment but using those machines to produce products of greater value by our chip makers, then fine. But the ASML machines might already be one of the excluded categories. I don’t claim to be an economist, but if you’re buying more than you’re selling you’re loosing wealth. Even worse if you’re buying unproductive assets..
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That's a great case for targeted tariffs on China and arguments against tariffs on Holland. How about the other 200+ nations?

Start with two countries with whom we have our largest trade deficits and against whom Trump intends to levy the largest tariffs: Vietnam and Lesotho. How are those massive trade deficits a problem for the US?
 
#5,050
#5,050
LouderVol said:
the us consumer who is going to be living in more inflation. the goods we make are going to be more expensive than their counterpart. energy, labor, regulation. those three things are going to drive costs up. we are hoping, with no evidence to back it up, that the increased wages, more inflation, offset the rise in the cost of goods.

we have seen what its going to do with Home Depot, i think, having to remove products from their shelves. so we are going to pay more, for fewer options, while hoping that inflation magically doesn't happen.

bringing the work back here isn't some magic bullet.
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Even if more manufacturing jobs could be brought back here, I would be surprised if we could fill them. We have raised a couple of lazy arse generations. Not impressed with the work ethic in this country these days.
 
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