Context –
Jeff Sagarin in his model ranks all 263 FBS/FCS teams together so it provides some idea of where everybody fits relative to the whole. jmo.
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ESPN FPI only ranks FBS teams. It’s all about math. I think we fell 16 spots in FPI last year the day after the APSU game. FPI updates every night.
Arkansas jumped up 16 spots to #28 in FPI after their win on Thursday but this next week they go to Okie state as a 9.5 point dog according to Vegas. State first has to contend with South Dakota State on Saturday. The cowboys are favored by 9.5 points. SDSU is #1 in the FCS poll and Sagarin has them at #44; he has the cowboys at #17.
FPI dropped NC State by 30 spots after their win at home over the catamounts. Going into that game Vegas had us as a 4.5 point favorite over the wolfpack in charlotte. The line on some books has so far moved up to 6.0.
On paper NC State is the 2nd least talented P4 team on our schedule. I don’t think I’m being wild-eyed when I say I think our 2nd team on both sides of the ball this year could beat the catamounts. jmo.
In the preseason I noted what I thought were issues with our OL last year, especially in the redzone. Cooper, in his most business-like media session I’ve seen, said this week both he and Karic have gotten stronger. He said he’s improved his athleticism. Joey said in the preview show that the new younger guys have pushed the older OL guys this year and he has seen “explosive” growth. In the 2nd camp scrimmage it was reported that Lance Heard held his own against our DL. Both Josh and Joey have said we worked extensively on redzone during camp.
All of my offseason “concerns” have been addressed. I’m hopeful about our secondary and I think it’s reasonable to be hopeful. We’ll see how they do. I do think we’ll be much better at WR and probably at TE as well. We’re likely also better at LB. At LEO behind Pearce we will have Josephs and I think that’s a step up from Harrison who I thought was too slow. jmo.
I checked. We were a 4.5 point favorite over Iowa going into the Citrus bowl with a makeshift OL and WR corps. So against the #4 scoring defense of ’23 we sort of prevailed with relative ease. I think NC St probably has a better offense than Iowa had but I doubt the same could be said for their defense. jmo.
I’ve said I think we have to make it to the first bye week to figure out what we have for a team this year. If, as I expect, we are undefeated at that point then we have a 3 game stretch to get to the second bye week. If at that point we are still undefeated I think we’re a lock for the playoffs with 5 games remaining. Don’t get cocky and we’re in. jmo.
Also, again, as others have shared, according to Josh, the playbook is “wide open” with Nico. Let’s Go! #GBO