War in Ukraine

[MontyPython]

I'm not wrong at all in my post. Glide bombs aren't going to win this war for russia anymore than more ground based anti-aircraft systems are going to win it for Ukraine. Come on MacAthur impress us with your vast military strategy knowledge and explain to us what Ukraine needs to "stop Russia in it's tracks".

Yes, you are wrong. You've proven umpteen times that you simply don't know **** about military tactics.

It may make you angry, Hogg, but I know stuff because... Drum roll please...

I read. A lot. And I pay attention. Most importantly, I care and hope the Ukrainians succeed against Putin and his merry band of punk bitches.

As for your question, read my long prior post about the subject. Just my $0.02.

 

[evillawyer]

 

[evillawyer]

 

[hog88]

Yes, you are wrong. You've proven umpteen times that you simply don't know **** about military tactics.

It may make you angry, Hogg, but I know stuff because... Drum roll please...

I read. A lot. And I pay attention. Most importantly, I care and hope the Ukrainians succeed against Putin and his merry band of punk bitches.

As for your question, read my long prior post about the subject. Just my $0.02.

You saying I'm wrong means nothing so be my guest and show me how I'm wrong.

You read propaganda that reinforces your preconceived ideas and you discount/disregard anything that disputes what you want to believe. You actually know nothing, you parrot those that support your beliefs.

 

[norrislakevol]

Russia already borders Poland.

Right you are. I forgot about the tiny sliver of land that does.

 

[LouderVol]

Heh. He ain't asking, he's taking.

Putin wants the Baltics back in the Russian sphere.

he didn't need Ukraine for that....

if he was planning a war with the west the worst thing he could have done was getting involved in a long war. he has given our MIC time and reason to ramp up.

he won't do crap to NATO. none of his invasions, none of his frozen conflicts involve NATO members. he is a bully, he knows NATO is too much for him, so he is stuck beating up on all the non-NATO nations.

 

[MontyPython]

You saying I'm wrong means nothing so be my guest and show me how I'm wrong.

You read propaganda that reinforces your preconceived ideas and you discount/disregard anything that disputes what you want to believe. You actually know nothing, you parrot those that support your beliefs.

Wow. This is exciting. Been wanting my fortune read for awhile.

The "propaganda I read"... Tell me more about what I read, Hogg. Was that you peaking around my trash cans yesterday?

 

[PKT_VOL]

This is very interesting. Macron is a real leader on Ukraine.

That wasn't a negotiation. That was Macron getting swindled by Putin a couple days prior to the invasion.

 

[MontyPython]

he didn't need Ukraine for that....

if he was planning a war with the west the worst thing he could have done was getting involved in a long war. he has given our MIC time and reason to ramp up.

he won't do crap to NATO. none of his invasions, none of his frozen conflicts involve NATO members. he is a bully, he knows NATO is too much for him, so he is stuck beating up on all the non-NATO nations.

I hope you're right. Maybe Medvedev's threats of nuclear war are all bluster and posturing. Then again, maybe they're not.

 

[LouderVol]

I hope you're right. Maybe Medvedev's threats of nuclear war are all bluster and posturing. Then again, what if they're not.

if its nuclear war after Russia attacks us, there isn't anything we could do regardless. they lose Ukraine war after being ready to nuke the west, they will just use nukes in Ukraine.

 

[LouderVol]

hey @BeardedVol and @MontyPython

remember how you said the aid given to Ukraine wasn't impacting our readiness? well it is.

Pentagon will give Ukraine $300 million in weapons even as it lacks funds to replenish US stockpile

It’s the Pentagon’s first announced security package for Ukraine since December, when it acknowledged it was out of replenishment funds.

apnews.com

"It wasn’t until recent days that officials publicly acknowledged they weren’t just out of money to buy replacement weapons, they are $10 billion overdrawn."

as I told you. you can't replace relative cheap old stuff with an equal number of new expensive things. No idea why you thought you could trust one of our government groups who can't even account for half of their assets.

 

[PKT_VOL]

Given Ukraine's ingenuity and manufacturering capacity of drone production in the last year or so, this is going to become very common along with drones continuing to augment artillery. It's amazing at both a tactical and strategic level.

For the Russians, this simply isn’t sustainable. However, their ability and willingness to endure punishment is their secret superpower (similar to WWII).

 

[hog88]

hey @BeardedVol and @MontyPython

remember how you said the aid given to Ukraine wasn't impacting our readiness? well it is.

Pentagon will give Ukraine $300 million in weapons even as it lacks funds to replenish US stockpile

It’s the Pentagon’s first announced security package for Ukraine since December, when it acknowledged it was out of replenishment funds.

apnews.com

"It wasn’t until recent days that officials publicly acknowledged they weren’t just out of money to buy replacement weapons, they are $10 billion overdrawn."

as I told you. you can't replace relative cheap old stuff with an equal number of new expensive things. No idea why you thought you could trust one of our government groups who can't even account for half of their assets.

Dude don't argue with the strategic geniuses.

 

[PKT_VOL]

hey @BeardedVol and @MontyPython

remember how you said the aid given to Ukraine wasn't impacting our readiness? well it is.

Pentagon will give Ukraine $300 million in weapons even as it lacks funds to replenish US stockpile

It’s the Pentagon’s first announced security package for Ukraine since December, when it acknowledged it was out of replenishment funds.

apnews.com

"It wasn’t until recent days that officials publicly acknowledged they weren’t just out of money to buy replacement weapons, they are $10 billion overdrawn."

as I told you. you can't replace relative cheap old stuff with an equal number of new expensive things. No idea why you thought you could trust one of our government groups who can't even account for half of their assets.

Just take a moment and think this through verse what is asserted.

Readiness for what? For whom?

We have been sending primarily land-based cold-war era military assets to Ukraine. They were designed, built, and paid for to do the exact job they are doing which is defend Europe from Russian aggression.

Our other biggest geopolitical risk is China. Any confrontation with China will be air and sea based; not land based. Sending cold-war era land-based military assets deigned for Russian aggression to thwart Russian aggression in Ukraine does not compromise our "readiness" in any meaningful geopolitical way; quite the opposite actually.

You could easily make an argument that our response to the Israeli-Palatinian conflict effects our geopolitical "readiness" infinitely more due to the nature of a potential conflict in the Pacific and the need to have our naval assets ready and in theater.

 

[MontyPython]

Another Tos cook off
byu/53x11bonked inUkraineWarVideoReport

Woof. Clearly they got this one before it launched its load.

 

[MontyPython]

"Vitaly Robertus, the vice president of Russian oil giant Lukoil—the country's second-largest oil producer—has died "suddenly" at the age of 54, the company announced on Wednesday.

The death of Robertus was announced in a statement on Lukoil's website. The cause of his death wasn't stated. This marks at least the fourth death of a top executive at Lukoil since Russia's war in Ukraine began in February 2022."

 

[volgr]

Meh... IDK about that. I think if/when the Russians win, the only other option they have is using Ukrainians in the same manner that they use their ME proxies. I can see a "Free Ukraine Army" with some govt in exile being set up on Warsaw or Brussels or London. They will resort to terrorism in Russia.

There could be a few attacks early on but I dont see it being a prolonged problem. Of course the west will be trying their best to stoke as many of these as possible.

 

[WestTennesseeVol]

Code Red: How Russia Conquers the Baltics

I don’t necessarily agree with the analysis that Russia would learn from its mistakes in Ukraine or would suddenly prove more effective than they have in Ukraine, nonetheless, still an interesting read. Basically what I’ve mentioned already, Russia takes the Baltics and dares NATO to risk nuclear war to take the Baltics back.

 

[PKT_VOL]

Code Red: How Russia Conquers the Baltics

I don’t necessarily agree with the analysis that Russia would learn from its mistakes in Ukraine or would suddenly prove more effective than they have in Ukraine, nonetheless, still an interesting read. Basically what I’ve mentioned already, Russia takes the Baltics and dares NATO to risk nuclear war to take the Baltics back.

This is really dumb. Russia has been decimated in Ukraine. They simplely don't have the ability to pull that operation off now vs pre-invasion.

Their best hope is have an overwhelming force temporarily take over a land corridor between the Suwałki Gap, blackmail NATO with nuclear war, and hope they backdown.

Purely from an airpower standpoint, they would be decimated in short order so long as NATO is willing to engage.

 

[WestTennesseeVol]

This is really dumb. Russia has been decimated in Ukraine. They simplely don't have the ability to pull that operation off now vs pre-invasion.

Their best hope is have an overwhelming force temporarily take over a land corridor between the Suwałki Gap, blackmail NATO with nuclear war, and hope they backdown.

Purely from an airpower standpoint, they would be decimated in short order so long as NATO is willing to engage.

You said “this is really dumb” and then just repeated what the article (and I) said

 

[volfanhill]

 

[MontyPython]

"(House Leader) Johnson told reporters during the House Republican retreat at the Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia late Wednesday that he “will work the will of the House” on a package to help Ukraine and said he doesn’t want to let Russian President Vladimir Putin take over the country.

“No one wants Vladimir Putin to prevail. I’m of the opinion that he wouldn’t stop at Ukraine … and go all through the way through Europe,” he said. “There is a right and wrong there, a good versus evil in my view, and Ukraine is the victim here.”

Nice.

 

[PKT_VOL]

You said “this is really dumb” and then just repeated what the article (and I) said

1) It outlines a full Baltic assault; not merely a small land bridge to Kaliningrad. A full Baltic assault is laughable.

2) It didn't begin to address the airpower disparity in such a conflict. Even assuming the absolute best case scenario for a well-learned, adapted, and retooled Russian ground force, NATO airpower would render it a moot point.

3) It doesn't begin to address how decimated the Russian army is. From its officer core, it's best soldiers, it technological edge, etc. simply gone. It will take at least a decade to replace. Throwing 200,000 new warm bodies will not change that in the same way them currently throwing warm bodies is just soaking up time in war of attrition.

4) Giving too much credence to nuclear blackmail from Russia. Russia isn't nuking NATO in an aggression war (outside Russia) against the Baltics. Russia understands that NATO knows that.

 

[WestTennesseeVol]

1) It outlines a full Baltic assault; not merely a small land bridge to Kaliningrad. A full Baltic assault is laughable.

2) It didn't begin to address the airpower disparity in such a conflict. Even assuming the absolute best case scenario for a well-learned, adapted, and retooled Russian ground force, NATO airpower would render it a moot point.

3) It doesn't begin to address how decimated the Russian army is. From its officer core, it's best soldiers, it technological edge, etc. simply gone. It will take at least a decade to replace. Throwing 200,000 new warm bodies will not change that in the same way them currently throwing warm bodies is just soaking up time in war of attrition.

4) Giving too much credence to nuclear blackmail from Russia. Russia isn't nuking NATO in an aggression war (outside Russia) against the Baltics. Russia understands that NATO knows that.

Ok, now those are actual different points this time rather than saying “this is really dumb” and then repeating what the article said

 

[MontyPython]

Regarding the Lend-Lease approach favored by House Speaker Johnson (and Donald Trump), this approach was *already* put into law in 2022. Biden *already* has the power to provide as much assistance to Ukraine as he wants to. Period. Without Congressional approval.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/3522

What this means is Biden - instead of making a unilateral decision to help Ukraine - he has patiently sought the bilateral support of the Congress over the last umpteen months. I suspect that his staff pointed out this fact to Johnson given that Ukraine appears to be critically low on some material.

In other words, American assistance to Ukraine is coming.

Of note, WWII Lend-Lease program as a practical matter...

"...Roosevelt, eager to ensure public consent for this controversial plan, explained to the public and the press that his plan was comparable to lending a garden hose to a neighbor whose house is on fire. "What do I do in such a crisis?" the president asked at a press conference. "I don't say ... 'Neighbor, my garden hose cost me $15; you have to pay me $15 for it' ... I don't want $15—I want my garden hose back after the fire is over." To which Senator Robert Taft (R-Ohio), responded: "Lending war equipment is a good deal like lending chewing gum—you certainly don't want the same gum back."

In practice, very little was returned except for a few unarmed transport ships. Surplus military equipment was of no value in peacetime. The Lend-Lease agreements with 30 countries provided for repayment not in terms of money or returned goods, but in "joint action directed towards the creation of a liberalized international economic order in the postwar world." That is the U.S. would be "repaid" when the recipient fought the common enemy and joined the world trade and diplomatic agencies, such as the United Nations."