CFP Scenarios (merged)

#976
#976
TNBV said:
Are you new to college football? Having people in front of you lose is the main recipe for moving up the rankings. Matter of fact, in the past it was the ONLY way.
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Hard to move up simply for other teams losing when you're struggling to win games against mediocre opponents and other teams in your same "bunching" are blowing people out....

TCU is doing themselves no favors with these games like 10 point wins over WVU and Texas Tech
 
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#978
#978
OrangeEtBlanc said:
If the committee remains consistent, we should only fall to #4. They had one-loss ‘Bama in front of TCU last week, so they shouldn’t drop us behind them. IF, a big if, they remain consistent, that is.

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Tennessee
5. TCU
6. Oregon
7. USC
8. LSU

Who really thinks TCU would hang against any team ranked above them? They will certainly lose 1-2 before the season is over. Oregon still has Washington, Utah, Oregon State in Corvallis, and possibly the Pac-12 championship to play. USC & UCLA play each other and then likely Oregon for the PACCG. Those teams will sort themselves out. The 2 teams we REALLY needed to lose (Clemson & ‘Bama) lost yesterday. TCU goes down and we’re pretty much a lock.
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I think LSU makes the Top 6 tomorrow. Not sure I buy them only jumping two spots when 2 teams in front of them struggled to beat mediocre teams (TCU and USC)....

TCU won by 10 over a 4-4 Texas Tech
USC won by 6 over a 3-5 Cal

Meanwhile #10 LSU took down #6 Bama in a game Bama was heavy favorite in.
 
#980
#980
counterdevotee said:
Genuine question, as long as we win out after this horrific loss, what scenario gets us in? Anyone have a solid explanation?
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1.GA
2.Ohio st
3.Michigan
4.TCU
5.Tennessee best 1 loss team and only loss to #1 Ga. (same scenario that's happened several times during the CFP era and happened last year with GA and Bama) win out and we are in.
6.Oregon lost to GA 49-0
7.Lsu now controls the west with 2 losses and we killed them.
8.Clemson

TCU won't win out
Ohio st and Michigan play each soon

If Tennessee wins the last 3 and hopefully handily, we will wind up the top 1 loss team and in the top 4. Book it. It really helped with LSU knocking Bama out, Clemson getting killed and Oregon already been destroyed by GA 49-0.
 
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#981
#981
tennesseeduke said:
GA
Ohio st
Michigan
TCU
Tennessee best 1 loss team and only loss to #1 Ga. (same scenario that's happened several times during the CFP era and happened last year with GA and Bama) win out and we are in.
Oregon
Lsu now controls the west with 2 losses and we killed them.
Clemson

TCU won't win out
Ohio st and Michigan play each soon

If Tennessee wins the last 3 and hopefully handily, we will wind up the top 1 loss team and in the top 4. Book it. It really helped with LSU knocking Bama out, Clemson getting killed and Oregon already been destroyed by GA 49-0.
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Not sure how you justify TCU jumping to the 4 spot after beating a 4-5 Texas Tech team by 10 points while Tennessee lost a #1vs#3 game.....
 
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#983
#983
OrangeEtBlanc said:
If the committee remains consistent, we should only fall to #4. They had one-loss ‘Bama in front of TCU last week, so they shouldn’t drop us behind them. IF, a big if, they remain consistent, that is.

1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. Tennessee
5. TCU
6. Oregon
7. USC
8. LSU

Who really thinks TCU would hang against any team ranked above them? They will certainly lose 1-2 before the season is over. Oregon still has Washington, Utah, Oregon State in Corvallis, and possibly the Pac-12 championship to play. USC & UCLA play each other and then likely Oregon for the PACCG. Those teams will sort themselves out. The 2 teams we REALLY needed to lose (Clemson & ‘Bama) lost yesterday. TCU goes down and we’re pretty much a lock.
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Michigan or Ohio State one loser there. We get into the playoff a 3 spot would be nice.
 
#984
#984
It’s interesting how the playoffs have devalued the Conference championships. No one on this board seems bothered or upset that we likely won’t win the SEC. We’re all just writing about ways that we can get into the playoffs. I do miss the importance of the conference championships. Would love to see an 8 conference setup with the winners of each conference going to the playoffs. No wild card entries allowed. But wild card entries stimulate viewer interest for ESPN and there would be nothing to argue about if it were a nice logical progression of winning on the field.
 
#988
#988
volfan102455 said:
And I think there may be 10 conferences so even the 8 team playoff doesn't address that.
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I understand. I meant go NFL Jr and realign all the teams into eight conferences. I mean if it’s going to basically be a professional league (NIL, free agency to jump to another team) might as well run it like one.
 
#989
#989
ZZ13 said:
It’s interesting how the playoffs have devalued the Conference championships. No one on this board seems bothered or upset that we likely won’t win the SEC. We’re all just writing about ways that we can get into the playoffs. I do miss the importance of the conference championships. Would love to see an 8 conference setup with the winners of each conference going to the playoffs. No wild card entries allowed. But wild card entries stimulate viewer interest for ESPN and there would be nothing to argue about if it were a nice logical progression of winning on the field.
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You can only have 1 number 1 team in the initial rankings. 11-1 at minimum gets that team in in 99% of all scenarios. The 1% it doesn't is if the team they lose to lose their conference title.

We are in the playoff as long as we win next 3 weeks. The only "help" we need is UGA going 13-0.
 
#990
#990
KeyVol14 said:
Oregon still has to play Utah and USC will have a tough game against ND. PAC 12 won’t get in
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You may be right but that is also the reason that if one of the three 1 loss teams from the PAC 12 win out they are likely in. They all would have to beat at least 2 if not 3 ranked teams AND win the conference championship in the process. It would be an impressive 4 week run.
 
#994
#994
JMSqb11 said:
I think LSU makes the Top 6 tomorrow. Not sure I buy them only jumping two spots when 2 teams in front of them struggled to beat mediocre teams (TCU and USC)....

TCU won by 10 over a 4-4 Texas Tech
USC won by 6 over a 3-5 Cal

Meanwhile #10 LSU took down #6 Bama in a game Bama was heavy favorite in.
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LSU will be # 8 Bama maybe overrated and earned its initial ranking by name only this year. The Tx A&M game and the Tx games should have lowered their ranking. They are good but just not well coached as they have been in the past.
 
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#995
#995
ZZ13 said:
It’s interesting how the playoffs have devalued the Conference championships. No one on this board seems bothered or upset that we likely won’t win the SEC. We’re all just writing about ways that we can get into the playoffs. I do miss the importance of the conference championships. Would love to see an 8 conference setup with the winners of each conference going to the playoffs. No wild card entries allowed. But wild card entries stimulate viewer interest for ESPN and there would be nothing to argue about if it were a nice logical progression of winning on the field.
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In a couple of years when the playoffs expand they're going to be devalued more
 
#996
#996
Sudden Impact said:
LSU will be # 8 Bama maybe overrated and earned its spot by name only this year.
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Bama coming into this week was a 1 loss team with a 3 point loss to the #1 team.... They were not overrated being at #6....I do think they will get the bias and stay inside the Top 10 though.
 
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#997
#997
We just need to concentrate on winning out and we should be good. Trouble is if were are #4 seed we will have to play GA in the first round. I would take it though. Who knows what will happen on a neutral field. Probably a lot fewer pre snap penalties that cost us a lot of points yesterday.
 
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#998
#998
ZZ13 said:
It’s interesting how the playoffs have devalued the Conference championships. No one on this board seems bothered or upset that we likely won’t win the SEC. We’re all just writing about ways that we can get into the playoffs. I do miss the importance of the conference championships. Would love to see an 8 conference setup with the winners of each conference going to the playoffs. No wild card entries allowed. But wild card entries stimulate viewer interest for ESPN and there would be nothing to argue about if it were a nice logical progression of winning on the field.
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Nothing you can do about it at this point. The 1985 team was 9-2-2 and at the end of the season was probably the number 1 team in the nation. They possibly would not have made it into a 12 team playoff with that record but I always believed that they would have won it had there been one. We were hot and had a great team at the end of the season.
 
#999
#999
volroadwarrior said:
We just need to concentrate on winning out and we should be good. Trouble is if were are #4 seed we will have to play GA in the first round. I would take it though. Who knows what will happen on a neutral field. Probably a lot fewer pre snap penalties that cost us a lot of points yesterday.
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They won't do that. They would let us sneak in at 3rd spot to avoid SEC Semifinal. The 4th and final playoff spot will be a conference champion... Tennessee at 11-1 and UGA at 13-0 will be #1 and #3
 
#1,000
#1,000
I don’t know why everyone wanted bama to lose that enabled TCU to probably leapfrog us. If bama wins TCU would stay behind them.
 
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