CFP Scenarios (merged)

#626
#626
ATCVolinmn said:
Could be undefeated GA, undefeated OSU, then 1 loss pac12, ACC, big 12 champs(if TCU loses) and us and Mich vying for the other 2 spots.......we can still get in. We'll have to dominate our last 3 games though......
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ACC is done unless everyone else playing for #4 some how have 2 losses and even then I’m not sure an ACC team would get in.
 
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#627
#627
This has been a crazy night. Honestly the team just needs to stay focused on the three games left - take care of those and let this all play out.

UGA is on the road the next two weeks at Miss State and Kentucky and that is where the upsets tend to happen. TCU is at Texas and then at Baylor. OSU is at Maryland and has to play Michigan.
 
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#628
#628
ATCVolinmn said:
Could be undefeated GA, undefeated OSU, then 1 loss pac12, ACC, big 12 champs(if TCU loses) and us and Mich vying for the other 2 spots.......we can still get in. We'll have to dominate our last 3 games though......
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No shot LSU gets in with two losses. Their best bet at this point is the sugar bowl
 
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#629
#629
JoAllan said:
If LSU wins out and wins the championship game they would be in.

They couldn’t put Georgia in and NOT put LSU in…….so they would both be in.

Worst case scenario for Tennessee. I highly doubt they would put 3 SEC teams in.
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Not true
 
#630
#630
JMSqb11 said:
Did I stutter? Are you drunk?

Simple fact that has zero to do with Tennessee. If LSU goes 11-2 with a win in Atlanta, they will be in the playoff. Not sure if you’re aware but the playoff is made up of 4 teams.
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No they won’t. You might be drunk.

Not because of your opinion. But because “you think this is a simple fact.”
 
#632
#632
volfan_28 said:
Agreed, but even if LSU upsets UGA they aren’t a shoe-in.

two-loss LSU over one-loss Tennessee even tho Tennessee beat them by 30? I don’t think so
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I think most definitely. If not why even have the championship game?

How would they put Georgia in if LSU just beat them and LSU is the SEC champion and not Georgia?

Both would go for sure.
 
#633
#633
Other games to watch tonight:

USC vs Cal
UCLA vs Arizona St

Need a 2 loss pac winner to be safe
 
#635
#635
VolArmy74 said:
Who are your 4 in that scenario?
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Would be tough.

UGA is in regardless of Atlanta.
LSU would be in for winning the SEC
Ohio State/Michigan winner
11-1 Tennessee or 13-0 TCU now that Clemson and Oregon are likely 1 loss conference champ

LSU winning the SEC would be doomsday for the Committee. Can’t put in LsU without Tennessee but you can’t leave out the SEC champ. I think there would be easy justification for 3 SEC teams but would they do it? If we fall to 4/5 on Tuesday, how do you drop us if we finish 11-1 with Michigan and OSU playing each other final week which means a team in front of us takes a loss.

Committee would be in a no win scenario because easy to justify 3 SEC teams but would they do it if you have
 
#636
#636
sami said:
It's pretty simple, actually.

1. We have to win out (hopefully impressively).
2. Georgia has to run the table.
3. TCU needs to lose a game.
4. One of Michigan and Ohio State will have a loss

Georgia and the unbeaten Big 10 champ will be 1-2, and then it becomes resume comparison for the other two spots, where ours stacks up with any one of UM/OSU loser, or the Oregon/USC winner with one loss.

For us, it's just take care of business and let the chips fall. The worst case scenario is 11-1 and a NY6 bowl game, and who in their wildest dreams though that would happen?
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You have a way of making “pretty simple” sound complicated 😂 or maybe I’ve had too much vodka. I have. I know I have. Feel bad about it honestly, for real. I’m not kidding. It’s a problem
 
#637
#637
Helton1 said:
No they won’t. You might be drunk.

Not because of your opinion. But because “you think this is a simple fact.”
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The SEC champ will be in the playoff. Regardless if it’s 13-0 UGA or 11-2 LSU.

But please tell me how a team that wins the SEC and that debuted at #10 in the CFP on a 7 game win streak with 3 of those wins being over Top 10 teams would not be a playoff team. I’m all ears.
 
#639
#639
JoAllan said:
If LSU wins out and wins the championship game they would be in.

They couldn’t put Georgia in and NOT put LSU in…….so they would both be in.

Worst case scenario for Tennessee. I highly doubt they would put 3 SEC teams in.
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The SEC Champion is NOT an automatic qualifier. None of the champions are. The committee selects what they think are the best 4 teams. Yes winning one of those games helps - but it is not automatic.
 
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#640
#640
Kas232323 said:
Not true
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Lol keep thinking that.

It’s not going to happen anyway.

But you seriously think they would put in Georgia the SEC #2 who just got beat by LSU and leave out LSU who just beat Georgia and who would be the SEC #1? NO
 
#641
#641
JMSqb11 said:
Because unlike the Big Ten, LSU as SEC Champ would have 3 top ten wins (Ole Miss, Bama, UGA) in their final 7 games after debuting at the #10 team in the CFP rankings.

If you’re the 10th ranked team with wins over #9,#6,#1 with losses to top 5 Tennessee, and one point lose to likely 8-9 win team, you have strong resumeè

Penn State didn’t have the schedule strength to have that many top ranked opponents after their losses.


And they got help tonight. #4 lost. #6 lost. LSU is likely to jump to the top 6 on Tuesday. My guess is TCU 5 and LSU 6
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You make good points, but also unlike the Big 10, the 1 loss team actually beat the conference champ. And our 14 point loss @ #3 is not as bad as LSU’s 27 point loss at home to us. Our resume stacks up with anyone’s. In this scenario we’ll also potentially have 2 wins over top 10 teams, 1 of which being the SEC champ.

But I’m sure it will be hard to leave the SEC champ out too. The committee will have a tough time with it if LSU wins out. I’m just pointing it it’s not as clear cut as “LSU’s automatically in if they win it”. I could see them still being left out
 
#643
#643
JMSqb11 said:
The SEC champ will be in the playoff. Regardless if it’s 13-0 UGA or 11-2 LSU.
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What if Alabama beats Ole Sis and LSU loses to Arky or TAMU?
LSU still wins the West and would get in with 3 losses if they beat UGA in the SECCG?
 
#644
#644
JoAllan said:
Lol keep thinking that.

It’s not going to happen anyway.

But you seriously think they would put in Georgia the SEC #2 who just got beat by LSU and leave out LSU who just beat Georgia and who would be the SEC #1? NO
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Yep. 2 losses matter. I hope it happens just to prove it. But they won’t beat Georgia. Honestly they’ll prob lose a 3rd game in the next two weeks.
 
#647
#647
JMSqb11 said:
Would be tough.

UGA is in regardless of Atlanta.
LSU would be in for winning the SEC
Ohio State/Michigan winner
11-1 Tennessee or 13-0 TCU now that Clemson and Oregon are likely 1 loss conference champ

LSU winning the SEC would be doomsday for the Committee. Can’t put in LsU without Tennessee but you can’t leave out the SEC champ. I think there would be easy justification for 3 SEC teams but would they do it? If we fall to 4/5 on Tuesday, how do you drop us if we finish 11-1 with Michigan and OSU playing each other final week which means a team in front of us takes a loss.

Committee would be in a no win scenario because easy to justify 3 SEC teams but would they do it if you have
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I still think the precedent set by leaving Big 10 champion Penn State out would come into play with LSU.

My biggest concern is them trying to slip the loser of Michigan/Ohio State into the playoff. They are both darlings in these situations. Especially Ohio State if they were to lose.
 
#648
#648
VFL21 said:
You make good points, but also unlike the Big 10, the 1 loss team actually beat the conference champ. And our 14 point loss @ #3 is not as bad as LSU’s 27 point loss at home to us. Our resume stacks up with anyone’s. In this scenario we’ll also potentially have 2 wins over top 10 teams, 1 of which being the SEC champ.

But I’m sure it will be hard to leave the SEC champ out too. The committee will have a tough time with it if LSU wins out. I’m just pointing it it’s not as clear cut as “LSU’s automatically in if they win it”. I could see them still being left out
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Once again, what does our resume have to do with LSU making the playoff?!

The SEC champion will make the playoff. I’m not sure why the reaction to LSU winning the league and going to playoff is some slight to Tennessee. They have zero to fo with each other. Is anyone saying that Tennessee would be kept out of the playoff if LsU wins in Atlanta and makes playoff?
 
#649
#649
volfan102455 said:
The SEC Champion is NOT an automatic qualifier. None of the champions are. The committee selects what they think are the best 4 teams. Yes winning one of those games helps - but it is not automatic.
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Well yea we all know this.

However their not going to put in the loser and leave out the winner……it won’t happen unless they had 3 losses or maybe 2 late season losses or something.

LSU was already 10…….what do you think they will be next week?

What do you think they would be at the end “if” they beat the number 1 team? At least 4th.
 
#650
#650
GordonC said:
What if Alabama beats Ole Sis and LSU loses to Arky or TAMU?
LSU still wins the West and would get in with 3 losses if they beat UGA in the SECCG?
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Well a 3 loss or more SEC champ would be taken to woodshed and shot.
 
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