War in Ukraine

Here is the translation of the Russia MoD update..Im not even joking:
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Agreed the situation is dynamic but the analysis is still helpful to understand doctrine and tactics as well as measure what is actually happening now because it is following closely to how he projected it. Next step will be to see what the result will be? successful zerg or overreach?



I dont see how you can compare that analysis to Chris Cappy. This guy sounds like an intel analyst giving mostly his opinions, whereas Cappy is giving a clear and far more granular assessment of man and material movements as well as a good understanding of the impact of the weaponry being brought to bear and tactical plays of each side.

I think the New Atlas guy has some interesting observations but he doesnt support them sufficiently. I get that he was USMC in the past but again, it is a state department level analysis and not a military one.
Well one thing that was more like nails on the chalkboard and doesn't have much to do with his analysis was the fact that he didn't even pronounce Kherson (he kept saying "Harison") or Zaporizhzhia (he completely butchered that name at one point) correctly, indicating to me that he doesn't understand the language or done enough to at least learn the names of the towns. From my understanding, New Atlas has an understanding of the language and is able to likely go to sources from both Ukraine and Russia to piece the picture together.

With regards to the content of Cappy, I don't see a noticeable difference in the two presentations outside of the opinions given on the outcome of the conflict. New Atlas actually went out of his way to use a pro-Ukrainian source to make his points and he used their combat maps. Also with regards to those 3 bridges that cross the Dnipro and Inhulets rivers, I think there is still some conflicting info about if all 3 are damaged to the point of not being still usable, and to go further, it appears that the importance of these bridges in order to supply Russian troops on the west bank is a bit over-exaggerated. Not only are pontoon bridges being used (which Cappy seemed to downplay in his video/analysis), but there are reports that for now, there may be sections of the Inhulets river that are rather shallow. Lastly, I get annoyed hearing this commentary about the Russians not being able to fight a land war in their own backyard going into the winter... even with the increased fall precipitation and mud. I think

I think you are exaggerating a bit about how detailed of a breakdown this guy Cappy does, or at least did in that video. It was a 10000 ft perspective... not much better or worse than what New Atlas presented. It's just that Cappy has more of pro-Ukrainian lean and New Atlas has a more optimistic picture towards the Russian side.
 
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A large portion of the Russian population has this weird fictionalized belief system that essentially makes Russia out to be some sort of quasi Nazi-Scientology-Master Race thing. They think Russian is a race, and the top one. They think, like you mentioned, that WW2 was Russia reacting and ALWAYS gloss over the fact they were Hitlers allies during the early part of the war. They believe things like humans originated out of Russia, all major historical figures were actually Russian, NATO and the US is itching to take them over (lol no one cares about them). Its a constant deluge of nutbaggery.

What us sane people see is a country whose false identity has been forged out of centuries of failure and embarrassment and who missed the bus to be part of the West and is full of jealous rage. Russia is like a mildly retarded teenager from a trailer park suffering from acromegaly. They are big, they are kind of strong, but they are clumsy and not smart. They can't figure out why the cool kids won't hang out with them so they essentially mingle with worse, much weaker versions of themselves at the trailer park down the street where the trailers sit on blocks.
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Russia is not a country!
Russia is not even an empire!
Russia is CIVILIZATION!
The West understood this, but ignored and threatened!
Well, now we've come with REVENGE!
Join the Russian World!
 
Saber rattling on nukes again on Russian state media. I’d think if they bust out nukes this escalates quickly into an much larger list of combatants.

 
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