Given that Russia is - quite literally - running out of decent troops and equipment, my $0.02 regarding Putin's next move...
I think Putin wants out of his Chinese finger trap in a big way. But he still needs to save face. Solution?
Declare victory. "Mission Accomplished!" (worked for W right? *cough*)
Russia troops are concentrating all they got (left) on the Donbas area. And they are picking up small bits of land and small towns very, very slowly. But, they are losing troops and materiel at a completely unsustainable rate.
I think Russia will probably take Lyman - which is on the wrong side of the river - and possibly Severodonetsk. Which is a pretty big prize.
Then maybe Lysychansk. But I think that's all they could capture with the horsepower they got at this point. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk won't be taken.
Then, Putin declare fait accompli! Surprise! The Russian goal the whole time was to only capture a land bridge to Crimea. Attacking Kyiv and Karkiv was all part of Putin's 4D chess game - a big diversion. Vodka all around!
@volgr parties like its 1999.
THE WAR IS OVER!!!
Of, course, there's just. One. Problem.
Ukraine ain't done. Ukraine is just ramping up with heavy artillery, Harpoon missiles, and other game-changing western equipment.
Putin will publicly offer his "reasonable" truce terms that Zelensky will quickly quash.
Net/Net... the war continues. Putin sues for peace. Most western nations (including us) tell Zelensky "It's your call on continuing to fight or not". Russia digs in its troops in defensive positions. There's a stalemate for several months. Then Ukraine begins to bring a large arsenal of 777s, other artillery, and newly trained troops to the front, and it slowly but surely obliterates the Russian lines and equipment click by click.
I think by late Summer, Ukraine is fully on the offensive and pushes Russian troops backwards. It'll be a slog, but with superior artillery, they'll slowly but surely knock the Russian troops out of their land. When Ukraine has mastered our HIMARS system - with a range of 500 kilometers - the first thing they'll probably do is knock out the entire moored Russian fleet in Sevastopol. The Crimean bridge is also waiting to be destroyed, thereby cutting off close supplies to Crimea. Also, if true, Patriot missile batteries will eventually be up and running - obviously a much longer learning curve there.
In short, Russia simply does NOT have a solution to counter western-supplied artillery. Ukraine is getting up to speed on their use now. Once their troops are ready, it's over for Russia.
Unless Putin loses his mind and goes nuclear, Russia will be expelled from Ukraine. It's just a matter of time.
