Recruiting Forum Football Talk IV

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#136,980
#136,980
VolByLaw said:
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Teams on this list that shouldn't be above TN (or on the list at all):
Florida
Miss State
Kentucky
LSU
Auburn

3 of those have coaching staff turnover. 2 of them have significant roster turnover. 4 of them are very unpredictable entering the season. 3 have lost their primary starting QB from 2021.

Only 1, Mississippi State, has coaching staff and roster stability. Only Kentucky and Miss State have retained starting QBs.

Tennessee has coaching & roster stability and is returning the starting QB. Considering they beat UK and Miss State didn't really out perform the Vols last season, I would expect UT to be ahead of all the aforementioned schools in preseason rankings.

Also, preseason rankings are stupid. They should wait until at least the 3rd weekend before ranking anybody.
 
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#136,982
#136,982
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#136,984
#136,984
#JuanVol said:
I don’t know how they calculate FPI but I do know they are wrong.
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-- Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.
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A significant chunk of our prior performance variable in their model is the Pruitt years, i.e., no offense. It's just math. They had us starting around 53 last year and we were in their top 25 until after the Purdue game. We ended the year with them at #26.

So all of the teams that are overrated/underrated is because primarily they're looking at how they were over the last 4 years. 3 years ago LSU was national champs. Time has moved on but ESPN's model to a degree by design is stuck in the past. jmo.

SP+ seems to rely less on prior performance sort of like past performance is no guarantee of future success. Connelly goes in depth with every team looking at all the little details. ESPN FPI is different. They don't do a lot of common sense work with FPI. Basically, they're lazy. jmo.

edit to add: Maybe a simpler way to understand this is FPI says our offense last year (for Tennessee) was an outlier. Connelly looks at our offense last year and then looks at Heupel's offenses at UCF and says, no, it's real. jmo.

ScreenHunter 863.png
 
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#136,985
#136,985
ChattaTNVol said:
A significant chunk of our prior performance variable in their model is the Pruitt years, i.e., no offense. It's just math. They had us starting around 53 last year and we were in their top 25 until after the Purdue game. We ended the year with them at #26.

So all of the teams that are overrated/underrated is because primarily they're looking at how they were over the last 4 years. 3 years ago LSU was national champs. Time has moved on but ESPN's model to a degree by design is stuck in the past. jmo.

SP+ seems to rely less on prior performance sort of like past performance is no guarantee of future success. Connelly goes in depth with every team looking at all the little details. ESPN FPI is different. They don't do a lot of common sense work with FPI. Basically, they're lazy. jmo.

edit to add: Maybe a simpler way to understand this is FPI says our offense last year (for Tennessee) was an outlier. Connelly looks at our offense last year and then looks at Heupel's offenses at UCF and says, no, it's real. jmo.

View attachment 447449
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Great explanation. Thanks for sharing!
 
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#136,989
#136,989
nicksjuzunk said:
Didn’t see, but can only assume they counted Tennessee as their only loss. “A tradition like no other… Your Masters.”
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They're on some strong stuff over there lol...and they said can they go 11-1 with their lone loss coming to UGA LOL! Even on paper UT should be the 2nd best team in the East. UGA vs UT should be the marquee divisional game this year.
 
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#136,995
#136,995
tennesseefan31 said:
The FPI thing is data driven. But your analytics are only as good as your data and as @ChattaTNVol laid out, ESPN's data (and the way they deploy it) is bad.

I don't see it as a slight - if the people that make FPI had cutting edge insights they wouldn't be working for ESPN and giving it away for free.
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A returning starting qb is a ten times better metric for predicting wins rather than a 4 year avg
 
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#136,996
#136,996
UTMVol76 said:
You guys do know that’s why they do this.

#clicks
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FPI is what FPI is. They'll get clicks off of that.

They'll let us stew and bitch about it for 2-3 days, then on Monday they'll release their darkhorse or underrated lists/articles and we'll be featured. Then they'll sit back and count those clicks.
 
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#136,997
#136,997
BigSteve09 said:
FPI is what FPI is. They'll get clicks off of that.

They'll let us stew and bitch about it for 2-3 days, then on Monday they'll release their darkhorse or underrated lists/articles and we'll be featured. Then they'll sit back and count those clicks.
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Anytime you compile statistics you address outliers and adjust form norm if needed. It doesn’t take a rocket science to figure out that blending Pruitt stats with Heupel stats is a complete false indicator. They’re lazy or stupid, I’ll let them choose.
 
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