In June of 2020 FiveThirtyEight did an analysis of NFL pass rushes working with ProFootballFocus to try to explain why the NFL spends so much money on pass rushers.
Exactly how much of an effect can a sack or pressure on the QB have on the outcome of a drive? What are the chances that a team can overcome a sack for a productive series? To find out, we looked at 126,205 regular-season plays from the past three seasons and grouped them by drive. We removed series that ended at halftime or the end of the game itself, and we took out rare events like safeties and blocked field goals or punts. Then we tallied up the outcomes of drives that included at least one sack or quarterback pressure and compared them with drives with no sacks or quarterback pressure.
What they found was that a QB pressure had an expected points added value (EPA) of 0.41 points per QB pressure and a sack had an EPA of 1.47 points per sack.
Using those EPA values I wanted to see how our pass rush measured up in terms of defensive points added to our games compared to the rest of the conference. I’m assuming (dangerously) that an analysis of college games would yield similar results though the values may not be exactly the same. Anyway, I’m using NFL values to evaluate SEC team's pass rushes during the 2021 season. TIFWIW.
David Cutcliffe said in an interview that QBs have 2.8 seconds to get rid of the football. According to Football Outsiders peak sack volume in the NFL occurs at 2.7 seconds, so not that far off from college.
We’re working on a 4-man pass rush. When we bring blitzes we’re giving the offense the numbers advantage in our secondary and so we better get home in well under 2.0 seconds, otherwise we’re getting burned. The danger with a 4-man pass rush is if it fails to get home. No DB can cover indefinitely. With a 4-man pass rush the offense will have the numbers advantage against the rushers because they’re likely to have around 6 blockers on average for our 4-men.
So the reason the NFL pays so much for pass rushers is they have got to be special athletes that can beat the odds stacked against them. jmo.
I recently posted from the On3 evaluation of James Pearce that he had over 30 sacks in his combined junior & senior years playing at the highest level of North Carolina football.
Last year we often lost containment on the QB and the QBs made plays with their legs. Our guys were doing the same to opposing defenses. While all QB rushing yards in this table are not scrambles it does show that the QB has to be accounted for in the run game. jmo.
Byron Young said in his spring interview that last year he was just using his physical ability to get to the QB. This year, he said, he’s trying to play smarter.
It’s going to be interesting to see how much we improve with our pass rush this year. It could be pretty significant and we’re not starting from the basement. We were near the bottom of the top half of the conference in 2021 so we just need to keep moving on up. jmo.