Debunking Wisconsin:
Though currently projected a 2-seed by multiple outlets that understand and have insight into the committee...here's why it's bonkers. Despite them being an "impressive" 12-2 on road/neutral games and 8-3 in Q1 games (both appear really good and are 2-seed caliber, if not 1-seed)...
They're NET ranking is 21st.
KenPom has them 31st...
Vegas gives them the 16th best chance of winning it all...
What gives?
A good hint is that their KenPom "luck" rating is #7 out of 350+ teams. Aka they're winning a bunch of very close games. And we all know luck isn't a real thing and everyone regresses to the mean eventually.
A shallow dive reveals:
Out of 24 wins, 19 of them were by 10 points or less (80%). For comparison, out of our 23 wins, only 10 were by 10 or less (44%)
Out of the same 24 wins, a whopping 12 of them were merely by 5 or less (50%). UT? A measly 3 (13%).
Wisconsin could rarely build comfortable leads and won at an unusually high rate in what were close to tossups...maybe 60/40s....maybe even 70/30s at best, within the last few minutes of the game. And yet they won an absurd 86% of games within 5 points. That is mere positive variance and they are no true 2 seed. They are the "10-2 #12 Northwestern football team of 2015" going into our bowl game.
We are better.
That's my story and I'm stickin to it.