War in Ukraine

#3,201
#3,201
volinbham said:
isn't implied that he thinks Team Biden shouldn't be leaking info and directly a pushing war is imminent narrative? that's a recommendation to do something differently
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The admin isn't doing what he's implying. In fact they've come out stating they don't know where Ukraine got the "time frames". If acknowledging the fact that Russia is poised to roll on Ukraine is "pushing a narrative" instead of pointing out the reality of it, then the butthurt over blaming Biden is manufactured.
 
#3,202
#3,202
So I'm thinking if Putin doesn't attack within the next week or so, his plan all along is one of bluffing to gain concessions from Ukraine / NATO.

Running with this theory, as I'd guess the economic consequences in Putin's calculus outweigh the gains in territory... at least for now. I say this if, and only if, Putin thinks Biden would go full-on sanctions and pull out all the stops. This would include blacklisting the major Russian banks, disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT payment system, halting all exports of electronic components and oil-related supplies to Russia, and blacklisting Putin, his oligarch pals, and various companies within Russia.

Would Biden actually go DEFCON5 if Russia invades? Well, if yes, it will not only economically harm alot of our allies, but also us. Oil would go through the roof, the financial markets would be hit hard, and other problems for the West.

On the other hand, Russia would likely be crushed economically by such measures. The Ruble would plummet, their stock market would crash, and their banking and trading systems would be in a pickle. Then the question becomes, would China be willing to rile the US and the West by lending a hand to Russia.

Is Putin willing to gamble that Biden is bluffing? Hmm. Whole lot of poker going on.
 
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#3,204
#3,204
MontyPython said:
So I'm thinking if Putin doesn't attack within the next week or so, his plan all along is one of bluffing to gain concessions from Ukraine / NATO.

Running with this theory, as I'd guess the economic consequences in Putin's calculus outweigh the gains in territory... at least for now. I say this if, and only if, Putin thinks Biden would go full-on sanctions and pull out all the stops. This would include blacklisting the major Russian banks, disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT payment system, halting all exports of electronic components and oil-related supplies to Russia, and blacklisting Putin, his oligarch pals, and various companies within Russia.

Would Biden actually go DEFCON5 if Russia invades? Well, if yes, it will not only economically harm alot of our allies, but also us. Oil would go through the roof, the financial markets would be hit hard, and other problems for the West.

On the other hand, Russia would likely be crushed economically by such measures. The Ruble would plummet, their stock market would crash, and their banking and trading systems would be in a pickle. Then the question becomes, would China be willing to rile the US and the West by lending a hand to Russia.

Is Putin willing to gamble that Biden is bluffing? Hmm. Whole lot of poker going on.
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I don’t think they will actually be barred from SWIFT and the Germans seem incredibly unreliable here.
 
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#3,205
#3,205
tvolsfan said:
I don’t think they will actually be barred from SWIFT and the Germans seem incredibly unreliable here.
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Yeah, Germany has alot to lose there, apparently, as do we. This would be a financial atom bomb. There is precedent, however, for such action.

SWIFT is based in Belgium and governed by a board consisting of 25 people, including Eddie Astanin, chairman of the management board at Russia's Central Counterparty Clearing Centre. SWIFT, which describes itself as a "neutral utility," is incorporated under Belgian law and must comply with EU regulations.

What happens if Russia is removed?

There is precedent for removing a country from SWIFT.
SWIFT unplugged Iranian banks in 2012 after they were sanctioned by the European Union over the country's nuclear program. Iran lost almost half of its oil export revenue and 30% of foreign trade following the disconnection, according to Shagina.
 
#3,209
#3,209
Rasputin_Vol said:
And what if nothing happens in 4 weeks? We're already seeing the spin being thrown around now about the February 16th invasion rumor being debunked. So what will the talking points be at the end of March?
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I am not saying it will happen (its not my theater of expertise) but that if it does, they likely need to do so soon before the ground thaws.

I will say that the idea is compelling that the one thing Ukraine has that Putin may be willing to put up with any sanctions for is the 35 million people into the Russian fold. It is hard to get a clear read though, since I dont trust our own administration in the slightest, who themselves and their lackeys in the media and the military complex benefit from going to war.

The information on troops moving back just feels like deliberate fog, psyops so that they can have some element of uncertainty for the actual attack.
 
#3,213
#3,213
Putin is now viewed as a threatening dictator, by much of the world, and I do not think that is a positive for him. The people of Europe do not want him lording over them like he does in his own country. But he has already accomplished something by getting so much coverage for his modernized military. What was a lot of numbers for analysts is a visibly impressive force, very much in peoples' minds as an active instrument of Russian policy. Only crazy people want war. I certainly do not, but I believe that NATO's response to Putin must be to quietly configure its military for a decisive victory if Putin forces a war. It will not be necessary or desirable to stage exercises. We must stop involvements in unnecessary wars and get the categories of units in place within Europe to destroy the numbers of Russian aircraft and armor in a potential attack. With its larger populations and economies, NATO can do that. Diplomacy must be worked hard to prevent a war, but it must be supported by resolve and decisive military force.
 
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#3,221
#3,221
Septic said:
The admin isn't doing what he's implying. In fact they've come out stating they don't know where Ukraine got the "time frames". If acknowledging the fact that Russia is poised to roll on Ukraine is "pushing a narrative" instead of pointing out the reality of it, then the butthurt over blaming Biden is manufactured.
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Of all involved nations speaking on the matter from other NATO members to Ukraine and Russia, our administration is by the most aggressive in saying the invasion is going to happen. It's odd to watch and I can't figure why they are beating the drum of war so much more than any other interested nation.
 
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#3,222
#3,222
Vol Main said:
Putin is now viewed as a threatening dictator, by much of the world, and I do not think that is a positive for him. The people of Europe do not want him lording over them like he does in his own country. But he has already accomplished something by getting so much coverage for his modernized military. What was a lot of numbers for analysts is a visibly impressive force, very much in peoples' minds as an active instrument of Russian policy. Only crazy people want war. I certainly do not, but I believe that NATO's response to Putin must be to quietly configure its military for a decisive victory if Putin forces a war. It will not be necessary or desirable to stage exercises. We must stop involvements in unnecessary wars and get the categories of units in place within Europe to destroy the numbers of Russian aircraft and armor in a potential attack. With its larger populations and economies, NATO can do that. Diplomacy must be worked hard to prevent a war, but it must be supported by resolve and decisive military force.
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I dont think Putin wants much of a war either - he thinks if it is done well, it will be over within days. EU will continue to suckle at the NG tits of Russia so they will not cease business no matter what they say. China and the rest of Asia see it as a net benefit to them since they will trade with him. No, the only one who will actually take real action will be the USA and while that will hurt a good bit because of their influence on various international systems, Putin sees our leadership as weak and thinks that we will not be resolute long. Meanwhile Russia will use that as more reason to push other countries to decouple the international systems from USA leadership while China bankrolls the same effort.
 
#3,223
#3,223
volinbham said:
Of all involved nations speaking on the matter from other NATO members to Ukraine and Russia, our administration is by the most aggressive in saying the invasion is going to happen. It's odd to watch and I can't figure why they are beating the drum of war so much more than any other interested nation.
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Well, they're all on his doorstep. We're the biggest kid on the block and pointing out what appears to be obvious isn't beating the drums of war. My guess is that if the U.S. wasn't calling out Putin, Biden would be getting lynched as a feckless coward who was afraid to acknowledge the reality of Putin's transgressions.
 
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#3,224
#3,224
volinbham said:
Of all involved nations speaking on the matter from other NATO members to Ukraine and Russia, our administration is by the most aggressive in saying the invasion is going to happen. It's odd to watch and I can't figure why they are beating the drum of war so much more than any other interested nation.
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I think the point of making the highly specific predictions is to force Russia's hand and get the conflict out of this stalemate phase it is currently in. When you say something like "Russia is going to invade on February 16" it guarantees any invasion wouldn't happen on that day.
 
#3,225
#3,225
Septic said:
Well, they're all on his doorstep. We're the biggest kid on the block and pointing out what appears to be obvious isn't beating the drums of war. My guess is that if the U.S. wasn't calling out Putin, Biden would be getting lynched as a feckless coward who was afraid to acknowledge the reality of Putin's transgressions.
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It's not "calling out" Putin. It's continually taking a position that war is about to happen when all other countries are being more measured in their commentary. Unless it's an organized game of good cop, bad cop it appears we are the outlier.

There's a difference between being stern, frank that "if this happens the consequences will be severe" and being provocative in continually stating war is imminent.
 
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