Recruiting Forum Football Talk IV

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#110,626
#110,626
Ten_Titans said:
Well I'm an AI researcher. I'm not Andrew Ng or anything but I have read the Deep Mind papers and I've read a lot of the deep RL stuff which powers what you are talking about. Poker is child's play to having an AI be one of the best in the world at DOTA for example, and all of those make an intuitive level of sense to me.

So I'm not a super genius. But I can tell you if I could predict stock prices with AI, I would just do that and not bother with a day job. Me and every other AI researcher out there.

One of the main differences between games and stocks is that the AI in games has the ability to observe the game and manipulate the game. As it turns out, if you can manipulate the market, you really don't need AI to make a **** ton of money. See the Gamestop saga. The best humans are still significantly better than the best index funds.

As far as football, the same thing kind of applies. People will use AI to predict games and bet on them well before they use AI to call plays. And the best human gamblers are still head and shoulders above pure AI. Even all of the next Gen stats people talk about now are just fluff. I don't think any serious bookies or gamblers use them.
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Not sure what you mean by manipulating the game. Poker AI can't manipulate the game or cards that come out. They've just found near optimal betting lines, bet sizing, and probabilitistic decision making that makes it near impossible for an opponent to beat it in the long-run. Maybe I misunderstood your statement.

As for the stock market, algos have absolutely dominated for at least the last decade. Individual traders have shrunk to make up a small percentage of overall trades. That said, with an ever upward market, all can profit to a degree, but algos just do it easier and without emotions. Ofc fiber optics and proximity to market CPUs are a huge part of that too. Speed is king in trading these days and you need money to get that.

I have no data on gamblers, but I do know most of the well known guys I've read about rely on mountains of data to make their decisions. This was 5 or 10 years ago. The same period most poker AI cropped up. Wouldn't be surprised if AI has cracked sports gambling, but who knows.

Would greatly disagree modern analytics are fluff, when huge amounts of past data shows many of it is basic +EV decision making. Not really even debatable imo, the biggest margins are just based on basic math and decision theory. Mostly in the areas of going for 2 and 4th downs. But they're ultimately small edges, they aren't going to win Super Bowls by themselves, not even close. But small margins make a difference.

I see a future of playcalling being one that will puts current practices to shame. I hope we're ahead of the curve taking it more seriously. Jmo
 
#110,627
#110,627
vol81 said:
That win culminated a run from 1992 where me and my road warrior buddies went to every UT at UGA road game. I think we only lost one game at Georgia during that run.
The win in 2006, coming from way behind to run them off their own field, on national TV, at night, was particularly sweet. Great memories.
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The losses were in 2000 and 2002. I was at the ones in 2000 and 2004. Beating them with a freshman QB was glorious, too.
 
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#110,629
#110,629
delfonic said:
The scarier premise, for me, is when AI can create code (specifically for other AI) more optimally than humans. Because at that point, you got a singularity and all hell breaks lose.
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Intriguing and scary. I can see both sides. I think as long as it is cut off from the internet/external control, it could be contained. The curve of possible change would be exponential and only limited by available processing power (another way to control its growth).

The possibility for medical breakthroughs would be astounding. As long as you contain it, it would produce amazing benefits for mankind imo.
 
#110,633
#110,633
Ulysees E. McGill said:
I really liked it, but I hope they do a better job of building up the big bad next season, and have a better big bad.

If you've watched the whole season you know what I mean...that reveal was just too abrupt, and the true baddy was extremely underwhelming...imo.
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I totally agree. They rushed that and it was underwhelming. Not enough for me to not watch the next season, but it could have been so much better.
 
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#110,635
#110,635
delfonic said:
The scarier premise, for me, is when AI can create code (specifically for other AI) more optimally than humans. Because at that point, you got a singularity and all hell breaks lose.
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As a software engineer this has always interested me and simultaneously scared the **** out of me. Will it eventually replace software engineers? Maybe, but probably not in my working career. Current AI coding companies like AlphaCode, GitHub Autopilot and others are more of having an AI tool ride shotgun with you and pair program. It can predict what is optimal and let you build off what it predicts. It can also solve basic algorithm problems really well already. It’s still a long, long ways away from taking over completely though. If or when it eventually does get to this point though, yeah, scary stuff.
 
#110,636
#110,636
vol81 said:
That win culminated a run from 1992 where me and my road warrior buddies went to every UT at UGA road game. I think we only lost one game at Georgia during that run.
The win in 2006, coming from way behind to run them off their own field, on national TV, at night, was particularly sweet. Great memories.
Click to expand...
Yeah how much were we down at halftime? Wasn’t it like 33-13 or something?
 
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#110,638
#110,638
Devo182 said:
Intriguing and scary. I can see both sides. I think as long as it is cut off from the internet/external control, it could be contained. The curve of possible change would be exponential and only limited by available processing power (another way to control its growth).

The possibility for medical breakthroughs would be astounding. As long as you contain it, it would produce amazing benefits for mankind imo.
Click to expand...

Yes, maybe.

When someone intent on hurting others has a hyper intelligent AI available, their capacity for harm increases dramatically. Design a weapon? Easy. Virus? No sweat.

Chaos.
 
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#110,639
#110,639
orange parmejohn said:
My father just lost his battle with Covid. My heart is crushed.
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Sorry to hear this. That's a wicked virus and I wish more people would take it more seriously. Stay strong and keep faith and know that your father is in a much better place and is no longer suffering. Prayers for you and your family.
 
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#110,640
#110,640
LoudOrange said:
Their fans stormed the field after winning in 2000, a week after LSU fans storming the field in Baton Rouge. Our young fans probably don't believe that.
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I’m old (not as old as some on here) but I remember watching the Vols starting in the 80s. I remember when Georgia and LSU stormed the field. That is truly amazing that it’s been that long that I forgot what it’s like to have an opposing team storm the field for beating us. My how we’ve fallen…
 
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#110,641
#110,641
Jackcrevol said:
My Dad told me once, no one ever once asked him in 50 years of practice where his law degree is/was from. Not once. Because as it should be - one's reputation , in your case as a practitioner matters.

Of all my buddies in College (yes i'm the black sheep), one who went to Carib likely makes most $. Granted I dont believe success is measured by material or financial success. He was always most happy go lucky dude, plain, vanilla, never had greatest grades. Now he's an anethesiologist in Atl. Great guy. I dont need to mention how well he's done, crazy.
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There was a time when I just trusted doctors on blind faith. That all changed when my wife died because of mistakes made by some hospital doctors. Not gonna go into it but mistakes were made and those same mistakes were covered up. They didn't stay covered up long though and some form of justice prevailed. Everyone needs to talk to their doctors and ask the hard questions.
 
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#110,644
#110,644
VolGee4 said:
The losses were in 2000 and 2002. I was at the ones in 2000 and 2004. Beating them with a freshman QB was glorious, too.
Click to expand...

I’ve gone several times to Athens since that 2006 game and the only one we won was the JJ catch game in 2016.
I’ve never seen us lose at Bama but of course I haven’t gone in 20 years ha ha. Did see that awful tie in the early 90s where we should’ve won.
99 and 01 trips to T-town were great as was Peyton’s win as a Sophomore in 95 at that dump known as Legion field. Hopefully we can get back to those days
 
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#110,645
#110,645
Devo182 said:
Not sure what you mean by manipulating the game. Poker AI can't manipulate the game or cards that come out. They've just found near optimal betting lines, bet sizing, and probabilitistic decision making that makes it near impossible for an opponent to beat it in the long-run. Maybe I misunderstood your statement.

As for the stock market, algos have absolutely dominated for at least the last decade. Individual traders have shrunk to make up a small percentage of overall trades. That said, with an ever upward market, all can profit to a degree, but algos just do it easier and without emotions. Ofc fiber optics and proximity to market CPUs are a huge part of that too. Speed is king in trading these days and you need money to get that.

I have no data on gamblers, but I do know most of the well known guys I've read about rely on mountains of data to make their decisions. This was 5 or 10 years ago. The same period most poker AI cropped up. Wouldn't be surprised if AI has cracked sports gambling, but who knows.

Would greatly disagree modern analytics are fluff, when huge amounts of past data shows many of it is basic +EV decision making. Not really even debatable imo, the biggest margins are just based on basic math and decision theory. Mostly in the areas of going for 2 and 4th downs. But they're ultimately small edges, they aren't going to win Super Bowls by themselves, not even close. But small margins make a difference.

I see a future of playcalling being one that will puts current practices to shame. I hope we're ahead of the curve taking it more seriously. Jmo
Click to expand...
Yeah you're right on poker. I really didn't think about that. I would imagine a poker bot is simpler but operates on similar principles than a bot that plays something like chess or a computer game.

I don't disagree at all with your statement about algorithms. That goes for gambling these days also which I'm more familiar with. My point was specific to AI. Where the algorithm not only acts on your behalf but learns all of the necessary information to do so. Most successful algorithms are operating on either pre-programmed rules or basic rudimentary statistics that are perfectly fine. I just wouldn't call them AI.

As far as the next Gen stats thing, I wasn't referring to the use analytics (even though I would probably say it's not nearly used as much as it leaves the mouths of coaches). Just the next Gen stats like "catch radius" and this and that from the AWS commercials.

For any AI application you need tons of data, and you'll find sports are remarkably devoid of data. I have a file on my computer with every score and box score stat for every NFL game since 2009. It's 6 megabytes. Not gonna use AI on that. I think the next Gen stats stuff is just a way to artificially increase the data out there for Kaggle competitions. But that's just my conspiracy theory lol.
 
#110,646
#110,646
VolsDoc81TX said:
Did Mark Lye do that? I thought that it was someone else…I don’t actually listen to any of them anymore due to all the politics and social issues spouted by “sports” networks.
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No, that was Chris Fowler once calling us trailer park trash. And my point was he suffered no consequences for it. I think that probably started our hate for ESPN and us thinking they have it in for us.
 
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#110,648
#110,648
Does anyone have a recommendation for a sous vide cooker? Looking to further expand my steak cooking variety along with butter aging.
 
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