Orange.
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I think there is an old school pre- or extra-analytics motive/reasoning for going for 2 there, as well. Going alpha dog from the one to establish a point. Some old school guys with a back like that from one would have gone for the TD on fourth down there. Same motive.Another way to think of it - if the NFL set the 2 pt conversion to half the distance - 1 yard...you don't think people would be going for 2 almost all the time?
There's a reason it's set at the 2...it's basically a 50/50 decision at that point ~47% (.94 EV) for a 2 vs ~93%(.93 EV) for an XP. At 1 yard, it would be an easy choice going for 2 all day.