Recruiting Forum Football Talk IV

[volbeast33]

I mean the idiots did this over their official work emails…. Lol who does that.

Yep….. they brought it on themselves but I can see how being in the nfl doesn’t feel like a regular job. LOL

 

[cHiZzLeVOL]

In Freak’s contest all we have to do is pick the winner of the game. We don’t have to be concerned about the score or the spread. I was spending a lot of time studying up on each game and wasn’t having the sort of luck I was looking for so I decided to take a more simplified approach. There’s a lot of factors that go into the outcome of a game and since the games Freak selects for the contest are mostly just 50/50 games (in everybody’s book) there’s no way I don’t think to get a consistent edge.

The model I chose to use requires a lot less time and I had previously discovered that factoring in strength of schedule the net difference between a team’s offensive scoring and defensive scoring aligned pretty well with a team’s record at the end of the year. The bigger the net the better the record in most cases. So I decided to go with that and then I didn’t have to worry about being right or wrong. I could give the credit and blame to my model.

I still do a lot of research on every game because, well, that’s what I do. I’m retired. For example one metric I like is net yards per play and Brian Fremeau provides that data by filtering out FCS games and garbage time plays. We are generating (offense – defense) 1.33 net yards per play and Ole Miss is generating 1.31 yards per play. Football Outsiders says after week 6 we have the 7th best offensive line in the country; Ole Miss has the 14th best. They say our DL ranks 47th overall and Ole Miss ranks 111. We have the best QB passer rating in the conference with Hendo Heisman and Ole Miss is close on his heels. Our pass defense is rated at 121.25 and Ole Miss is at 140.31. We’ve played 2 strong passing teams and they’ve played one, yet our pass defense is performing better.

Someone asked a day or 2 ago if this was Banks first job as a standalone DC. It’s not. I wrote an article on this back on April 5th. He was the DC at CMU, Cincinnati, and Illinois before he went to Penn State. His bio on UTsports and his wiki page has a lot of additional information. He was the DC when Butch brought the Bearcats to Neyland in 2011 to face Bray, Hunter, and Rogers. His title at the time was co-DC but he said in answer to a reporter’s question that he was the play caller. In any event, he has a lot of experience for his current role.

Lastly, since I’m sharing information. Last week I pointed out that the purported strength of the vaunted South Carolina defense was its pass defense, which at the time was ranked 12th best in the nation. Its run defense was ranked 68th best. That’s based on yards per game for both which doesn’t always tell the whole story. We ran for 247 yards on them so now their run defense in down to 81st best in the country. Their pass defense is still 12th best but Hendo’s passer rating for the game was 199.13. If we hadn’t taken a break for much of the second half we could have probably continued to score at will. jmo.

Ole Miss has a run defense ranked #108 based on rushing yards surrendered per game, 86th based on yards surrendered per attempt. We are at #30 in yards given up per game and #27 in yards given up per attempt. South Carolina had faced Kentucky and Georgia before us so they had a lot of faith in their defense. That bubble went burst in the first quarter. You hate to see it. I think on paper it's fair to conclude we should be better able to slow their run game than they against us. jmo.

Massey says his power ratings are the most significant output of his celebrated model (originated in 1995) and he has us as 15th best team in the country and Ole Miss as 18th best. We’re at home and I think we come into the game with a number of advantages as identified above. The only question I have is whether or not we’ll again score 28 points in the first quarter. I wouldn’t bet against it. jmo.

This took me 5 miles of reading

 

[kiloVOLt]

Digging thru all these Gruden emails, I wonder if anything will pop up regarding Tennessee?

 

[Dudley Smith]

That's not his model. That's like the real clear polling average - just a collection of almost everything else out there, including ESPN, Sagarin, and Tom, Dick, and Harry. Dick, by the way, if you noticed, has us as the 9th best team in the nation. He's probably closest to being right. jmo.

This is Massey's model and he says the rating is based on performance to date and should not be used as predictive. For predictive purposes use Power.

View attachment 402060

Massey Ratings - College Football : FBS Ratings



He has a matchup tool on his site and you can plug in the two teams and game location and get the model's output prediction for that game.


View attachment 402063

Massey Ratings Matchup Tool

Nice, thank you!

 

[OGbabyaviVol]

Where are our boosters and local businesses? There’s no reason why Hooker and Evans should be rolling in some deals right now




We need this for recruiting dang it

Come on, @InVOLuntary!!! Do your part!

 

[UTSuave’]

nah, definitely not. i mean, it's one thing to put the fire out. it's another to rebuild it back to where it used to be before the fire. but generally, can't do one before the other.

step 1...stop the bleeding. i think he's done that already. i think mnost everyone, regardless of how the next 4 games go, already have exhaled a bit.

There's been immediate improvement on both sides of the ball.
he's doing more w/less, as far as i'm concerned.
he's got this team playing MEANINGFUL conference games in mid October, in year 1.
he's all but locked up a bowl game in year 1

i mean, mission accomplished, imo

Agreed!!…for me it’s beating someone with clout..then I’ll get on the hype train…with that being said I’m not talking away from anything he’s accomplished..I’m impressed with the “more with less” narrative

 

[Cosmo Kramer]

You like seafood? Stewbies, Dewey destins and AJ’s are all very good

AJ’s is average at best. Boschamps, Louisiana Lagniappe, Back Porch, Dewey Destins, Marina Cafe, Bric N Brack. Pompano Joes, Captain Daves. Stewbys and The Shack in Ft Walton. Louisiana Lagniappe and Boschamps are my favorites.

 

[Dudley Smith]

WTF does VQ bother putting out a Tuesday podcast that was recorded before the game on Saturday?

Mailbag question: “Does the Missouri game mean this team has turned the corner?”

Answer: “We’d have to see them do this two weeks in a row”

Also didn’t have an answer for whether Juwan Mitchell would be back soon. Sheesh

Edit: Apparently they dropped the wrong one at first, and now have a new one up dated today.

 

[cHiZzLeVOL]

View attachment 402053

Lol wait…. I’m confused…. so the reporter is telling the kid that hasn’t talked to him that he wrote down the quote immediately even though they haven’t talked…. Interesting

 

[peaygolf]

More top 25 votes than Nevada and Fresno St

 

[VolNash17]

I will never understand people that leave before a game is over...so dumb.

Me either… I feel like you lose out on what you payed for which is 4 quarters. Now I have left with about 2-3 minutes left at times just to get a head start when the game was out of reach otherwise try to stay. I know alot of people that leave at half etc. Why even get tickets if you’re going to do that? Lol

 

[cHiZzLeVOL]

Also isn’t the saying “Tailor Made” not “Taylor Made” and the reporter can’t even get that right….

 

[Geronimo]

SIAP…


We are one of 4 in the 100% category.

 

[BigSteve09]

SIAP…

View attachment 402076
We are one of 4 in the 100% category.

 

[Jack Burton]

So USCe fans were upset with the loss until Beamer’s post game comments. Now, at least on Reddit, they believe they won the 2nd half and would have won the game if it weren’t for the endzone interception. They are downvoting anyone who disagrees.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

yeah, i think if NIL is supposed to be this big tool for Tennessee, this shouldn't be happening. and i kinda wish he hadn't made that public...don't we have a department dedicated to this stuff? lol.

schools can’t do it for the athletes. He’s doing it here on the direction of his new “agent” grant frekring. Saw a couple guys post this while also tagging him in the post. Who I think is a great story and it sounds like a good businessman, but feels inappropriate for him to be trying to play agent while he’s on the team.

As someone with a little agency background, I’m never a fan of guys getting repped by friends/family in any capacity.

 

[NMVol]

Watching a rebuild is interesting and exciting especially with a likeable coach and staff with obvious football chops. The statistical improvement is heartening. I hope their work pays off sooner than later and the Vols trajectory in the W-L column in conference play takes off from here.

 

[VolNash17]

So USCe fans were upset with the loss until Beamer’s post game comments. Now, at least on Reddit, they believe they won the 2nd half and would have won the game if it weren’t for the endzone interception. They are downvoting anyone who disagrees.

They’re lucky we play Ole Miss this weekend and not South alabama or someone like that otherwise they would’ve had 70 scored on their mighty defense…

 

[Playdo]

So USCe fans were upset with the loss until Beamer’s post game comments. Now, at least on Reddit, they believe they won the 2nd half and would have won the game if it weren’t for the endzone interception. They are downvoting anyone who disagrees.

I do not miss those days.

 

[NMVol]

So USCe fans were upset with the loss until Beamer’s post game comments. Now, at least on Reddit, they believe they won the 2nd half and would have won the game if it weren’t for the endzone interception. They are downvoting anyone who disagrees.

Mob rule.

 

[Aesius]

So USCe fans were upset with the loss until Beamer’s post game comments. Now, at least on Reddit, they believe they won the 2nd half and would have won the game if it weren’t for the endzone interception. They are downvoting anyone who disagrees.

reddit sports fans are all 19 years old and have been watching CFB for two seasons.

 

[chavisut]

Have felt a W the last two games. Legit nervous about this one.

 

[BigOrangeVols]

He was 28-8 as a head coach and we were under NCAA investigation and our players were leaving daily. I think he was a decent hire for where we were. They hired a TE coach. And he looks lost.

I thought underwhelming put it correctly but that's what I was getting at. I'm already singing Danny White's praises over it, I think it was the best hire we could make and I loved the upside of the hire.

 

[BigOrange15]

So USCe fans were upset with the loss until Beamer’s post game comments. Now, at least on Reddit, they believe they won the 2nd half and would have won the game if it weren’t for the endzone interception. They are downvoting anyone who disagrees.

Copium

 

[ChattaTNVol]

I’d like to offer a salute to Vol Fans, especially, the “legion of the miserables”.

In 2016, when we had to go to overtime to beat Appalachian State, fans knew something wasn’t right. When we couldn’t run the football in 2011 against Montana, fans could sense there was an issue. There are countless other examples in recent years.

When our passing game struggled against Bowling Green, fans spouted off about it.

The greatest lie the devil ever told is that a football team improves the most from week 1 to week 2. Ask Missouri how much their defense improved or ask South Carolina how much their offense has improved.

The only way you have improvement from week 1 to week 2 is you change the personnel on the field. Oklahoma brought in their backup QB last week and saw immediate improvement. We now have the highest rated QB for the moment in the SEC because we brought in our backup QB when the starter got injured.

Something else I’ve noticed, and I think it’s by design, is we’re playing less players. We’re limiting playing time in competitive games to the guys who we believe are our best players and are most ready to help us perform. We’re no longer in Mr. Pruitt’s elementary school PE program.

Over the past couple weeks we’ve generated a lot of buzz around the program. It could be a boon to recruiting and last week we had almost a 10k bump in attendance. This week we’re sold out.

What we’ve seen the past couple of weeks is what Vol fans have wanted to see for a long time. They know what they’re looking for – and so does just about every other college football junkie in the world.

Listening to our guys talking about coaching each other and all the effort they’re putting into this team, their team, our team, is a joy to behold. Having coaches that are competent in leading these kids is a sight we have not seen in a long time.

Almost every year most models have us overrated. I usually am overly optimistic. But the models weren’t wrong and I haven’t been wrong. We’ve had a top 20 roster year in and year out and performed like a bottom tier P5 team. That now I think is obviously attributable to our prior coaching, not the kids.

Well, Mr. Pruitt, his staff, and his boys, are now gone. All that remains are Tennessee Volunteers and fans can easily recognize them. All we have to do is look at the way they play. jmo.