In Freak’s contest all we have to do is pick the winner of the game. We don’t have to be concerned about the score or the spread. I was spending a lot of time studying up on each game and wasn’t having the sort of luck I was looking for so I decided to take a more simplified approach. There’s a lot of factors that go into the outcome of a game and since the games Freak selects for the contest are mostly just 50/50 games (in everybody’s book) there’s no way I don’t think to get a consistent edge.
The model I chose to use requires a lot less time and I had previously discovered that factoring in strength of schedule the net difference between a team’s offensive scoring and defensive scoring aligned pretty well with a team’s record at the end of the year. The bigger the net the better the record in most cases. So I decided to go with that and then I didn’t have to worry about being right or wrong. I could give the credit and blame to my model.
I still do a lot of research on every game because, well, that’s what I do. I’m retired. For example one metric I like is net yards per play and Brian Fremeau provides that data by filtering out FCS games and garbage time plays. We are generating (offense – defense) 1.33 net yards per play and Ole Miss is generating 1.31 yards per play. Football Outsiders says after week 6 we have the 7th best offensive line in the country; Ole Miss has the 14th best. They say our DL ranks 47th overall and Ole Miss ranks 111. We have the best QB passer rating in the conference with Hendo Heisman and Ole Miss is close on his heels. Our pass defense is rated at 121.25 and Ole Miss is at 140.31. We’ve played 2 strong passing teams and they’ve played one, yet our pass defense is performing better.
Someone asked a day or 2 ago if this was Banks first job as a standalone DC. It’s not. I wrote an article on this back on April 5th. He was the DC at CMU, Cincinnati, and Illinois before he went to Penn State. His bio on UTsports and his wiki page has a lot of additional information. He was the DC when Butch brought the Bearcats to Neyland in 2011 to face Bray, Hunter, and Rogers. His title at the time was co-DC but he said in answer to a reporter’s question that he was the play caller. In any event, he has a lot of experience for his current role.
Lastly, since I’m sharing information. Last week I pointed out that the purported strength of the vaunted South Carolina defense was its pass defense, which at the time was ranked 12th best in the nation. Its run defense was ranked 68th best. That’s based on yards per game for both which doesn’t always tell the whole story. We ran for 247 yards on them so now their run defense in down to 81st best in the country. Their pass defense is still 12th best but Hendo’s passer rating for the game was 199.13. If we hadn’t taken a break for much of the second half we could have probably continued to score at will. jmo.
Ole Miss has a run defense ranked #108 based on rushing yards surrendered per game, 86th based on yards surrendered per attempt. We are at #30 in yards given up per game and #27 in yards given up per attempt. South Carolina had faced Kentucky and Georgia before us so they had a lot of faith in their defense. That bubble went burst in the first quarter. You hate to see it. I think on paper it's fair to conclude we should be better able to slow their run game than they against us. jmo.
Massey says his power ratings are the most significant output of his celebrated model (originated in 1995) and he has us as 15th best team in the country and Ole Miss as 18th best. We’re at home and I think we come into the game with a number of advantages as identified above. The only question I have is whether or not we’ll again score 28 points in the first quarter. I wouldn’t bet against it. jmo.
