Reasons to think Coach Josh Heupel will move us forward

[Nocleats]

Well since the dislike Pruitt thread was an active thread let's try this one.

1. Can coach up a QB, having played the position and rather good at it, so he knows how to prepare a QB.
2. His offense scores a lot of points
3. I'm lost after that unless you factor in he's not Butch or Pruitt.

Thoughts?

Let’s wait and see just how bad the Damage from NCAA is.
Heck, Lombardi, Saban, and Belicheck would struggle to win with less players than their opponents.

 

[RockyTopTexas]

Well... it is dumb to make definitive statements over future events that you do not personally control. Sometimes context is obvious that a person isn't making that kind of declaration. It doesn't in your statement.

Winning matters 100% of the time. If he is at UT for 4 years losing... then he won't build a roster. Players don't sign with losers as a rule. They don't sign with coaches who will be "gone in 4 years".

So if your idea is that he can be a subpar coach on gameday that builds a launching pad for some top shelf coach to launch from... you aren't being realistic.

And... if he's wins 7, 8, or 9 games in each of years 2-4 then he's very likely to continue with UT to see if he can complete the rebuild.

So if he's a loser... then you very likely don't get a better roster. If he's a winner then he very likely isn't fired.

Hey my guy.. look what just happened with Pruitt. Everything you said above... Pruitts a loser.. how long did he last again ?? In reality winning doesn’t matter right now. Do you think we are making the playoffs? Do you think we are competing year in and year out annually? Do you think we will be there in 4 years? The answer is no. Be realistic with yourself as a fan here. Seriously

 

[Nocleats]

I think Heup will be successful here...may take a year or two...may not. How successful? I don’t think it’ll take too long to see if he’s capable or not of pushing us back into the same conversation with the big boys of the league. I believe with the departure of Pruitt and his program culture/pulse...we immediately got better. There was cancer growing out of control. Coaches didn’t look invested...players didn’t look invested. Add that to a outdated style of moving the football and a defense that was slow... thin on talent and quality depth....equals we suck!

Anytime an offense puts pressure on the defense to defend as much field and as many times a game as JH’s does....I just think we will be in a lot of games. Some wont go our way...some will. I think this staff will develop talent already there. Closing the recruiting talent gap won’t take long if both of these happen...and I believe it will. We shall see...

“Closing the recruiting talent gap won’t take long if both of these happen...and I believe it will. We shall see.”..

Let’s wait and see how bad NCAA punishment is.. if they impose penalties in scholarships it could take 4-8 years to get back

 

[sjt18]

I think Heup will be successful here...may take a year or two...may not. How successful? I don’t think it’ll take too long to see if he’s capable or not of pushing us back into the same conversation with the big boys of the league. I believe with the departure of Pruitt and his program culture/pulse...we immediately got better. There was cancer growing out of control. Coaches didn’t look invested...players didn’t look invested. Add that to a outdated style of moving the football and a defense that was slow... thin on talent and quality depth....equals we suck!

Good post. People don't like hearing it but Fulmer was a big part of that cancer. I think he chose Pruitt specifically because they agreed on philosophy of play.... and Fulmer never accepted that he was fired because he had not evolved with the game.

Anytime an offense puts pressure on the defense to defend as much field and as many times a game as JH’s does....I just think we will be in a lot of games. Some wont go our way...some will. I think this staff will develop talent already there. Closing the recruiting talent gap won’t take long if both of these happen...and I believe it will. We shall see...

IMHO, Heupel only gets one shot to get it right but his goal has to be a D that is complementary. I was encouraged that they talked constantly about an attacking style of D. On O... just score points. On D... use the pressure of your O scoring lots of points then pile your own pressure on top. You may give up some big plays but you should also get a lot of big defensive plays.

 

[Pacer92]

Closing the recruiting talent gap won’t take long if both of these happen...and I believe it will. We shall see...

Let’s wait and see how bad NCAA punishment is.. if they impose penalties in scholarships it could take 4-8 years to get back

True, the NCAA punishment will affect the program, but with the transfer portal the way it is, I don’t think it’ll take nearly as long, jmo. Let’s hope not anyway...

 

[sjt18]

Hey my guy.. look what just happened with Pruitt. Everything you said above... Pruitts a loser.. how long did he last again ??

He was fired. Yes. Did he leave a roster ready to challenge in the East? Did he even leave a roster that one of the top name coaches was ready to take a chance on? Yeah. I believe there's more talent than many here. But no one believes he set Heupel up "great".

In reality winning doesn’t matter right now. Do you think we are making the playoffs?

There is a WIDE valley between making the playoffs and "losing". I'll be more specific. If he wins 4-7 games each season for the next 4 years then he will neither build the roster or survive. If he wins 6-9 games in each of the next 4 seasons then he won't be fired.

Do you think we are competing year in and year out annually?

Not in a while.

Do you think we will be there in 4 years? The answer is no. Be realistic with yourself as a fan here. Seriously

And "realistically"... how do you KNOW that? The answer is... you do not.

UT needs to score points and look like a credible opponent against top tier teams. Even if it is just clamping down on the bottom half of the schedule... the D has to show something that can be sold to recruits. Recruiting is HUGE right now. Heupel has to be credible.

If his O performs then great players will stand in line to play in it. Defensive recruiting will take more creativity.

 

[Longshank]

Well, after last year and probably the results coming this year, it will be hard to get any worse. I think he will do alright and bring stability and respect back to the program. He maybe even brings some excitement back to the game. If he does that I would keep him around a while. I would only fire him with a clear cut better coach already on board to take over.

 

[Pacer92]

Good post. People don't like hearing it but Fulmer was a big part of that cancer. I think he chose Pruitt specifically because they agreed on philosophy of play.... and Fulmer never accepted that he was fired because he had not evolved with the game.


IMHO, Heupel only gets one shot to get it right but his goal has to be a D that is complementary. I was encouraged that they talked constantly about an attacking style of D. On O... just score points. On D... use the pressure of your O scoring lots of points then pile your own pressure on top. You may give up some big plays but you should also get a lot of big defensive plays.

I agree. Fulmer’s hand on the program was definitely part of the cancer...and the exact reason he wasn’t more successful as a head coach than he was.

I like the sound of the high risk/high reward approach. Just like the 3 pointer has revolutionized basketball...hopefully this style creates more parity in football..

 

[BeardedVol]

In truth you only have a sample set of 2 years.

Dealing only with statistical averages... I don't see your point. In '18, his O produced 43.4 ppg vs conf, 41.2 ppg vs FBS (winning record), and 46.2 ppg (losing record). In '19, it was 40.9 vs conf, 41.8 vs FBS (winning), and 41.8 ppg vs FBS (losing). That's really pretty remarkable consistency vs good/bad teams over two years. In '18, UCF had 7 games under 40 points. In '19, they had 5. They did have under 30 once in '19- a 24-27 loss to Cincinatti.


What do you mean by adapt? His playbook is very much like other O's today. What makes him unique is the speed he wants to play at. I guess anything is possible but I don't see how that can be made into a disadvantage.

I think part of the proof you are looking for was his time at Mizzou. The D might have been overworked due to his O... but they were pretty awful of their own accord too. Again, he doesn't appear to do anything novel when it comes to play design. He just tries to do it really fast.

His system puts a lot of pressure on the QB pre-snap. I think it is still an unknown as to whether the current guys can handle the extra load. I suspect that someone can. Still need to see it.

Not sure where you are getting your numbers. Looking at 2020, UCF went 6-4, and averaged 48.5 PPG against teams without a winning record, and against teams with a winning record, they averaged 32.5 PPG. Back in 2018, they managed 45 PPG against teams without a winning record, and 41 PPG against teams with a winning record.

So yeah, Heupel's offense is pretty consistent when facing off against bad teams, that's what I've been saying, but as he gets farther into his own recruiting cycles, the offensive production starts dropping off against teams with winning records.

 

[butchna]

Heupel went undefeated in the regular season with Frosts' recruits, you can try to deny that reality, but it won't change it. UCF plays a garbage schedule that is chocked full of bad teams. In Heupel's final season, he didn't manage to beat a single team on the schedule that ended the season with a winning record.

That's not some guarantee that he's going to fail here, but running up the score on bad teams in the AAC, is no guarantee that he's going to find success in the SEC either.

And Frost lost 7 games in his first season and went undefeated in his second with GEORGE O’LEARY’s “recruits”....also reality.

 

[sjt18]

Not sure where you are getting your numbers. Looking at 2020, UCF went 6-4, and averaged 48.5 PPG against teams without a winning record, and against teams with a winning record, they averaged 32.5 PPG. Back in 2018, they managed 45 PPG against teams without a winning record, and 41 PPG against teams with a winning record.

So yeah, Heupel's offense is pretty consistent when facing off against bad teams, that's what I've been saying, but as he gets farther into his own recruiting cycles, the offensive production starts dropping off against teams with winning records.

If you want to hang onto 2020 so you can be negative then I can't stop you. I don't think it is reasonable though. UCF is unlikely to ever be a program that can fill gaps with Freshmen. It is my understanding that UCF lost 10-12 guys from their 2 deep through opt outs. When a team like that loses 20-25% of the guys they depend on most... it has a big impact.

You have pointed to a coincidence, not necessarily a cause. If he'd been there for 5 years and offensive production had gone from 43 ppg to 35 ppg with a steeper drop off vs the better teams then you'd have a more solid proof. He wasn't. He had two extraordinarily consistent years at 40+ scoring and then the Covid year when lots of weird stuff happened.

 

[butchna]

Hey my guy.. look what just happened with Pruitt. Everything you said above... Pruitts a loser.. how long did he last again ?? In reality winning doesn’t matter right now. Do you think we are making the playoffs? Do you think we are competing year in and year out annually? Do you think we will be there in 4 years? The answer is no. Be realistic with yourself as a fan here. Seriously

Seriously realize that Pruitt isn’t the standard. Oklahoma tried 3 different tacks before hiring a first time HC in Bob Stoops. I think he’ll be here in 4 years...now what?

 

[sjt18]

Not sure where you are getting your numbers. .

These guys seem reliable and their site is easy to use:

cfbstats.com - College Football Statistics

 

[HalfullVol]

CJH will not bring us back... build a roster. That’s his job. Winning games doesn’t matter tbh.. He’s gone in 4 years. Hopefully the roster is deep when he leaves

GTFO !!

 

[Chattanooga Butchslappers]

Not sure that's actually a reason, other than he's more likable. Pruitt sure, but Jones actually did move us forward before slamming it in reverse. Well....Josh Dobbs moved us forward at least.

Yep...Dobbs
I might be totally wrong or just conveying negative memories into my thinking, but in my mind Butch caught a perfect storm of our East rivals being a touch softer than normal along with good instate/legacy classes. I feel like what Dobbs accomplished is probably undervalued (maybe not on here with the diehards) in general with respect to the poor development and the lack of creativity in scheme

 

[sjt18]

And Frost lost 7 games in his first season and went undefeated in his second with GEORGE O’LEARY’s “recruit”....also reality.

I hope that Frost isn't the pattern Heupel follows. Big Red loves Scott Frost... and they're already grumbling.

 

[BeardedVol]

If you want to hang onto 2020 so you can be negative then I can't stop you. I don't think it is reasonable though. UCF is unlikely to ever be a program that can fill gaps with Freshmen. It is my understanding that UCF lost 10-12 guys from their 2 deep through opt outs. When a team like that loses 20-25% of the guys they depend on most... it has a big impact.

You have pointed to a coincidence, not necessarily a cause. If he'd been there for 5 years and offensive production had gone from 43 ppg to 35 ppg with a steeper drop off vs the better teams then you'd have a more solid proof. He wasn't. He had two extraordinarily consistent years at 40+ scoring and then the Covid year when lots of weird stuff happened.

It's not about hanging onto anything, it's just the reality of his record, and his recruiting, and every single team had to deal with covid issues, it's moot. It's not a guarantee of failure in the SEC, but I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of wailing on the forums this fall when UT fails to hang 40 points on any team outside of Tennessee Tech.

 

[sjt18]

Yep...Dobbs
I might be totally wrong or just conveying negative memories into my thinking, but in my mind Butch caught a perfect storm of our East rivals being a touch softer than normal along with good instate/legacy classes. I feel like what Dobbs accomplished is probably undervalued (maybe not on here with the diehards) in general with respect to the poor development and the lack of creativity in scheme

He did catch a "perfect storm" in recruiting. A whole bunch of Vol homer recruits and legacies to build a couple of classes on. Unfortunately, he was incompetent as a coach and more fake than a $3 bill.

 

[GetEmVols]

I’m just looking forward to scoring 50 points on some games. The other team might score 51 though.

 

[butchna]

It's not about hanging onto anything, it's just the reality of his record, and his recruiting, and every single team had to deal with covid issues, it's moot. It's not a guarantee of failure in the SEC, but I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of wailing on the forums this fall when UT fails to hang 40 points on any team outside of Tennessee Tech.

So basing everything on TWO seasons?

 

[butchna]

I’m just looking forward to scoring 50 points on some games. The other team might score 51 though.

I think our defense is going to be shockingly better than we’re contemplating.

 

[vols 30]

It seems like some are salivating at CJH failing. Let's see some games first.

I personally think he will succeed, but I've lowered my expectations some. If you're expecting 90's results, then you are being unrealistic.

 

[sjt18]

It's not about hanging onto anything, it's just the reality of his record,

No. It is an interpretation of his record that doesn't include some very significant extenuating circumstances. I've interpreted his record too. For two years his O was very consistently good against all comers. He wasn't as good in the Covid season. I can't say for certain that he won't decline over time due to poor recruiting. That may be the case. Your argument and use of the facts however isn't enough to draw that conclusion.

and his recruiting, and every single team had to deal with covid issues, it's moot.

Some more than others and that's not really debatable. I'm not sure who would have been better and who worse. But you cannot pretend that it didn't have a significant impact or that losing a bunch of guys to opt outs and then dealing with similar Covid issues as everyone else isn't worse than just dealing with the quarantines and such.

It's not a guarantee of failure in the SEC, but I have a feeling there's going to be a lot of wailing on the forums this fall when UT fails to hang 40 points on any team outside of Tennessee Tech.

Wailing? Probably not from me. Criticism? Probably. He has an opportunity and he has a "claim to fame" just like Pruitt. Pruitt utterly failed in many ways on D. He didn't start getting the top defensive players. He never really developed depth. I think "technique" was better. They tackled better for instance.

If Heupel comes in as a supposed offensive guru with at worst better talent than he had at Mizzou and doesn't score points... yeah, he'll hear it.

 

[EricberryFAN]

CJH will not bring us back... build a roster. That’s his job. Winning games doesn’t matter tbh.. He’s gone in 4 years. Hopefully the roster is deep when he leaves

I have to respectfully disagree with this. I'm not saying he's going to be the guy but he was not hired to build a roster. Our roster isn't even that bad and like another posted said, if that was the case then we would of hired Tee Martin or even some big name like Deion Sanders to get recruits here. Minus our D-Line our roster is there to compete and win games if coached right IMO.

 

[sjt18]

It seems like some are salivating at CJH failing. Let's see some games first.

I personally think he will succeed, but I've lowered my expectations some. If you're expecting 90's results, then you are being unrealistic.

I expect "better" to start. Once we get "better" then we don't need to stop upping the expectations until we DO get back to 90's competitiveness.