Would 6-6 be an improvement?

#51
#51
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Since 2005? we're about a 6-6 team, on average. A good many 5-7s, offset by some 8-4 or better years, but mathematically...... about 6-6.

Ask yourself: can a rookie SEC coach with 20+ kids leaving via transfer somehow turn us into a 7 or 8 win team when we've been about a 6-6 team for over 15 years?

6-6 is average for us now. I don't like it but crunch the numbers for yourself, spin it up however you want, pump all the sunshine you can...... and 6-6 is still pretty much what you'll honestly get.

Is 6-6 in 2021 an improvement? No. It's average and realistic. 7 wins would be a great debut for a first year SEC coach facing what Heupel is facing, 8 wins would raise eyebrows in the SEC. 9 wins? Heupel should never need to buy another beer in Knoxville.
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With the schedule this season, yes! CJH should be expected to win a minimum of 7 games this season with the schedule we play.
 
#53
#53
hog88 said:
With the schedule this season, yes! CJH should be expected to win a minimum of 7 games this season with the schedule we play.
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Why? Because being a rookie coach and losing 20+ in the portal is normal?

I don't understand why he should BEAT the average, won't get out manned by more stable programs and out coached by veteran SEC coaches in a pinch.

I just don't see where the optimism comes from.
 
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#54
#54
BigOrangeMojo said:
2020 had Jeremy Pruitt, Nieds, JG and Shelton Felton. 2021 wins by default
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5a0mum.jpg
 
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#55
#55
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Why? Because being a rookie coach and losing 20+ in the portal is normal?

I don't understand why he should BEAT the average, won't get out manned by more stable programs and out coached by veteran SEC coaches in a pinch.

I just don't see where the optimism comes from.
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Even with the personnel losses we are still more talented than Bowling Green, TN Tech, Pittsburgh, Mizzu, USCjr, South AL and Vandy. Those should be 7 wins for any UT coach. UK should be his 8th. Anything less than 7 wins with this schedule will be a disappointment.
 
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#56
#56
hog88 said:
Even with the personnel losses we are still more talented than Bowling Green, TN Tech, Pittsburgh, Mizzu, USCjr, South AL and Vandy. Those should be 7 wins for any UT coach. UK should be his 8th. Anything less than 7 wins with this schedule will be a disappointment.
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Mizzou isn't a gimme and Pitt will be an early test of how we're going to do this year.

It's odd that you guys think the turmoil, lost personnel, and new coach won't lean us toward an average TN performance...... but actually a better than average year. That's not what I would expect at any other SEC school facing what we've faced.
 
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#57
#57
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
Mizzou isn't a gimme and Pitt will be an early test of how we're going to do this year.

It's odd that you guys think the turmoil, lost personnel, and new coach won't lean us toward an average TN performance...... but actually a better than average year. That's not what I would expect at any other SEC school facing what we've faced.
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I'm not talking about what "I think" because I think we'll end up with 3-5 wins because CJH isn't capable of doing better with this roster.

I'm saying with our roster and schedule we SHOULD be at 7-8 wins even with a rookie coach.
 
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#58
#58
hog88 said:
I'm not talking about what "I think" because I think we'll end up with 3-5 wins because CJH isn't capable of doing better with this roster.

I'm saying with our roster and schedule we SHOULD be at 7-8 wins even with a rookie coach.
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With that logic, a great coach would give us 9 or better? I'm not seeing that as realistic.

Getting a system in place requires time. With a rookie coach having started in January, essentially, and having resurrect a team culture, you're asking a lot. Who is your ideal coach...... General Neyland?
 
#59
#59
Sung to the tune of "Its Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas"

"Its beginning to look a lot like Dooley
2 stars ev...rywhere
And the prettiest sight we'll see
Is that 6-6 will be
A record we a...dore"
 
#60
#60
HuntlandVolinColo said:
I don't think 6-6 would be an improvement:

We should beat Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech, S. Alabama and Vandy with relative ease.

We are better than SCAR and Pitt which are home games. We have more talent than Kentucky (yes we do) and Mizzou but they are road games. I expect to beat Kentucky. Mizzou and Ole Miss are toss ups.

Winning only 6 games means that we probably lose 3 or more to Kentucky, Mizzou, Ole Miss, SCAR and Pitt.
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You might want alcohol handy...Lots and lots of alcohol.
 
#61
#61
Brave Volunteer said:
I actually think 6-6 would be disappointing considering the favorable schedule. There are already 6 games on schedule that are legitimately winnable and we'll probably be favored in. There are 3 games that are tossups and could go either way. And there 3 are games that are extremely unlikely that we will win. So if our realistic range of wins falls somewhere between 6-6 being the floor and 9-3 being the ceiling, I'd say if we finish 6-6 that's really not saying much.

Games we should win:

Bowling Green
Pitt
Tennessee Tech
South Carolina
South Alabama
Vanderbilt

Games that are tossups:

Ole Miss
Missouri
Kentucky

Games that we are unlikely to win:

Florida
Georgia
Alabama
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I try to stay optimistic, but prolly need to move 3 of the likely to win to the tossup category. Fact is, we have no clue what kind of team we field this year. New coach, depleted roster, let’s set the bar pretty low, and hopefully be pleasantly surprised.
 
#62
#62
OffTackleVol said:
This is the "logic" I'm using. 6-6 would be a disappointment. If our new coach is "the guy," 7-8 wins is a must.
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Here you can see the germination of the “fire this bum” mentality. Before he has even coached one real game, with a team full of lower half of the SEC talent, we have the first he’s not “the guy” if he can’t win 7-8 first year out of the gate.
 
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#63
#63
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
With that logic, a great coach would give us 9 or better? I'm not seeing that as realistic.

Getting a system in place requires time. With a rookie coach having started in January, essentially, and having resurrect a team culture, you're asking a lot. Who is your ideal coach...... General Neyland?
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CJH isn’t a rookie head coach. 2 of the 3 SEC teams we should beat have nothing only SEC newcomers but 1st time head coaches who have less talent than us so there is zero excuses for losing to SCjr or Vandy. We completely outmatch BG, TN Tech and South AL so that is 5 games CJH would have no excuse for losing. So even a decent coach should be able to eek out a couple more wins between Pitt, Mizzu and KY.
 
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#64
#64
Ashevillevol said:
Here you can see the germination of the “fire this bum” mentality. Before he has even coached one real game, with a team full of lower half of the SEC talent, we have the first he’s not “the guy” if he can’t win 7-8 first year out of the gate.
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Lower half SEC talent is equal to or more talent than 7 of the teams we face this season.
 
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#66
#66
Ashevillevol said:
Here you can see the germination of the “fire this bum” mentality. Before he has even coached one real game, with a team full of lower half of the SEC talent, we have the first he’s not “the guy” if he can’t win 7-8 first year out of the gate.
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You might want to read more of my posts. You'll then realize I'm on the Hype train. I think he is the "guy." I also think he'll win 7-8 games next year.
 
#68
#68
hog88 said:
CJH isn’t a rookie head coach. 2 of the 3 SEC teams we should beat have nothing only SEC newcomers but 1st time head coaches who have less talent than us so there is zero excuses for losing to SCjr or Vandy. We completely outmatch BG, TN Tech and South AL so that is 5 games CJH would have no excuse for losing. So even a decent coach should be able to eek out a couple more wins between Pitt, Mizzu and KY.
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It's easy to agree about the 5 wins.

Even you don't really expect the other wins you say you expect if we "eek them out."

As someone has pointed out, this is how expectations are skewed to where a TN coach cannot meet them. Our average for several years has been 6-6 but if Heupel can't beat the average the first year with almost 1/3 of the team having hit the portal...... he's not "decent."

It's not the turmoil, not the transfers, not the culture he inherited and will have had less than a year to turn around...... it's the coach. He's not "decent?"

Sheesh.....
 
#69
#69
I know we've had this discussion before but in today's atmosphere there are NO such things as "cupcake teams"...that phrase relevancy died with leather helmets (not really but you get the point). EVER team has good players because of better high school coaching, more advanced training, the transfer situation and several other key factors. And that's in every collegiate sport.....Cupcake teams no longer exist. They just don't.
 
#70
#70
tennrich1 said:
I know we've had this discussion before but in today's atmosphere there are NO such things as "cupcake teams"...that phrase relevancy died with leather helmets (not really but you get the point). EVER team has good players because of better high school coaching, more advanced training, the transfer situation and several other key factors. And that's in every collegiate sport.....Cupcake teams no longer exist. They just don't.
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Uconn, Umass, UTEP, Bowling Green, New Mexico State, Akron, Texas State, and ODU all disagree with you denying their cupcake status.
 
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#71
#71
BigOrangeMojo said:
Had last year's team played Mizzou or USCe during the middle of the season (as it was during the original schedule), those games would have been Ls. The Troy game might have been one too.

Last year's team rolled over and quit on Pruitt after halftime of the 3rd game
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Jeremy Pruitt didn’t connect with the players. His Saban-esque approach flopped miserably and took most of the program down with it.
 
#72
#72
Behr said:
We get disappointed anyway so what difference does it make? I mean if you're expecting us to suck and we do in fact suck, then you've spent all off season in a constant state of disappointed suck.

That's no way to live in my opinion. But hey, enjoy the suck. At least you ain't lonely.
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not saying we will suck. But how can anyone predict 8 or 9 wins with so much newness within the program?

Brand new staff with a totally different system than these kids have been exposed to..

Staff is trying to learn what these players can do..

Players are trying to understand the expectations of these coaches while learning a new system.

There is not a single player on this roster that has performed close to an all conference type player. Now they are expected to improve and be better after 15 days of practice?

Depth is going to be a major issue on both sides of the ball.

Just need to wait until late August to see what they can do. Getting 6 wins would be a huge improvement over last year and mean they DID NOT SUCK. Just learning their way.

BTW, I don't let my emotions get off kilter. Win or lose, I just handle without overly joyful or depressed. Getting disappointed over something you have no control over is "no way to live", IMO
 
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#73
#73
tennrich1 said:
I know we've had this discussion before but in today's atmosphere there are NO such things as "cupcake teams"...that phrase relevancy died with leather helmets (not really but you get the point). EVER team has good players because of better high school coaching, more advanced training, the transfer situation and several other key factors. And that's in every collegiate sport.....Cupcake teams no longer exist. They just don't.
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Cupcake is a relative term. Let's say "There's an obvious talent gap between some scheduled teams."

New Mexico State may beat New Mexico badly but Alabama could pull the starters, if they even play, early in the 1st half and still beat NMSU by 40 or whatever they wish.
 
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