I honestly have no idea. History says incumbents die hard and that every president with a 40 something percent rating has won reelection. There are too many divergent polls to make any projections from that kind of analysis. I read last night about an Aussie (as I recall) that has astounding success at calling our presidential elections, and he's saying Trump takes it. This is a "what have you done for me ... or to me culture" built along the lines of instant gratification, and a very polarized and non objective press to pass along the message - mostly liberal, so there's that aspect. I'd hope that people would look at what's happening with respect to "peaceful demonstrations", their "causes", and be horrified at what we are becoming; but I'm not sure about that degree of rationality. In a way I think it is Trump's to lose, and he has a chance at pulling it off if he can tone it down and not screw it up - act responsible, but keep his impromptu mouth shut and his phone turned off. But more than anything is the potential for big events (covid dies or covid lives, a war, a city burns kind of thing) and how they might polarize the election ... Trump got screwed with covid - Bush got a boost from 9/11.