Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

[The Dog]

How about them dodgers and joe Kelly letting the Astro’s know what’s up.


View attachment 296063

Sorry, can't ever root for the Dodgers, despite my dislike for the cheating Astros. Although, my beloved Cubs getting off to a 4-1 start, makes me want to say, "How 'bout them, Cubs?"

 

[rekinhavoc]

No matter what happens this season I think it is very important we remember one defining principle.....WGWTFA!

 

[Jackcrevol]

No matter what happens this season I think it is very important we remember one defining principle.....WGWTFA!

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IF there's a football season AND all that other ****, blah blah CV/masks ... WGWTMFA's.

 

[drvenner]

Yeah, but where's our BVS vaccine, doc? That is the real pandemic.

This is our BVS vaccine.

 

[drvenner]

Are your coworkers freaking out as much as mine. And I'm over here like

My wife is losing her ****, but I am supporting her.

 

[VolsDoc81TX]

My wife is losing her ****, but I am supporting her.

My wife is a Pediatrician and she’s driving me crazy...I understand precautions and I am following them. She is all kinds of paranoid about this. Of course her practice is full of viral transmission vessels (kids of all ages), so her job is much higher risk than mine...

 

[drvenner]

Sorry, can't ever root for the Dodgers, despite my dislike for the cheating Astros. Although, my beloved Cubs getting off to a 4-1 start, makes me want to say, "How 'bout them, Cubs?"

Heck yes

 

[SoilVol]

My sister contracted Covid last week. Had mild symptoms and not thought to be a bad case. My dad (after also preaching about the VitD and other nutrients that supposedly help and forcing my sister and mom to take them supplementally) came down with it a few days later. My dad's cough has worsened but no fever. My sister is currently in the ER (prayers appreciated). High fever, possible pneumonia. Needed IVs and antibiotics. Her blood oxygen level was extremely low and her toes were purple. She's 26.

My mom hasn't contracted it. She's a cancer survivor, diabetic and has lymphedema. I'm extremely concerned for her.

Update: my mother went from no symptoms to waking up at 4am with a high fever and body aches. I think my sister does not have pneumonia. It's all Covid.

Another note, my dad and mom have no plans to get tested. For every questionable case that gets counted as a positive, I'm certain there are equal or more situations where people know they have it but don't get tested. This happens with the flu as well. The numbers will never be exact. Doesn't mean they're worthless (statistical theories exist to account for the discrepancy between reported and actual values), but worth understanding. I'd say it's more likely the actual cases are lower than reported (due to people who showed mild symptoms or like my family's case) and I wouldn't be able to refute the notion that actual deaths is lower (due to scenarios we've all been aware of).

But it certainly isn't fake. It's very contagious. It's very dangerous. It's very serious. I sure as heck don't want it. Especially not knowing how my body will handle it.

 

[eVOLve]

I should know something around our schedule etc in the next few days. I suspect an announcement as well at some point at the end of this week or this weekend around it as well.

12 games! LETSSSS GO!

 

[drvenner]

Update: my mother went from no symptoms to waking up at 4am with a high fever and body aches. I think my sister does not have pneumonia. It's all Covid.

Another note, my dad and mom have no plans to get tested. For every questionable case that gets counted as a positive, I'm certain there are equal or more situations where people know they have it but don't get tested. This happens with the flu as well. The numbers will never be exact. Doesn't mean they're worthless (statistical theories exist to account for the discrepancy between reported and actual values), but worth understanding. I'd say it's more likely the actual cases are lower than reported (due to people who showed mild symptoms or like my family's case) and I wouldn't be able to refute the notion that actual deaths is lower (due to scenarios we've all been aware of).

But it certainly isn't fake. It's very contagious. It's very dangerous. It's very serious. I sure as heck don't want it. Especially not knowing how my body will handle it.

Continued prayers

 

[SoilVol]

The Re reported yesterday by the university of Tennessee dashboard was 1.06 and the R0 widely reported at the beginning of the pandemic was 2.5. If we plug in those values and solve for Pi for the state of Tennessee we get 0.576. (1.06/2.5) = (1 – Pi). 0.424 = (1 – Pi). Pi = 0.576.

The number of actual cases according to the CDC is far more than the number of reported cases, around 10 times more according to the CDC’s best estimate.

The general estimate at the start of the pandemic was we would have to get to around 60% immunity in the community for the virus to die off due to herd immunity. If the data being reported is anywhere in the vicinity we could be at 57.6% immunity in the state as of yesterday.

Once Re gets below 1.00 the number of new cases will be declining as the number of active cases which spawn new infections will also be declining.

On July 16th, I suggested we probably needed to get to around 115k reported cases in the state to hit our HIT (herd immunity threshold). There’s a technical glitch at the state level in today’s report but they do provide the total number of known cases as of today and it’s at 99,044.

My estimate was a best guess at the time but we’re only 16k away from the number so I still think in the next few days Re will likely go below 1.00 for the state. If so, no one should expect the virus to die out overnight but it will start to decline fairly rapidly as it will have difficulty finding new hosts until there are very few prospects left.

Lastly, this is a new virus and while our professionals and scientists know a thing or two about viruses in general, they need specific data to know everything there is to know about any new virus. In the beginning of something like this and for some time everyone, including the best minds we have, will be operating to some degree in the “fog of war”.

My big concern with our data right now continues to be that with the various “artificial” means we’re undertaking to slow the spread of the virus and with certain estimates that have been provided by those who should know best the conclusions one might draw from that data and the underlying assumptions could potentially turn out to be quite erroneous.

Note: I am not a doctor, nor am I a scientist. By profession, prior to my retirement, I was a project controls engineer, which means I collect and analyze data. More importantly perhaps, over the course of my life, I’ve stayed at a Holiday Inn Express on multiple occasions. TIFWIW.

Take this a step further and calculate it for some of the counties in the state. Do some with high pop densities and covid numbers, other rural, mix up current R0 values. See if the calculated threshold is being hit in some of the counties, and if that is translating to R0 values below 1. Could be predictive of how accurate the calculation is.

 

[yourstruly23]

 

[Jackcrevol]

funny thing, didnt care before. sure as **** dont care now. Worse than it was.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

Take this a step further and calculate it for some of the counties in the state. Do some with high pop densities and covid numbers, other rural, mix up current R0 values. See if the calculated threshold is being hit in some of the counties, and if that is translating to R0 values below 1. Could be predictive of how accurate the calculation is.

The first table is from the University of Georgia. They have built a model which estimates the number of actual total cases vs the reported total cases on a state by state basis. For example, their model suggests that in NY the total number of actual cases is 10.89 times the number of reported cases. That's pretty consistent with the CDC's estimate of 12 times for the state of NY. The UGA model for Tennessee suggests that our actual count is 4.62 times larger than the reported count. I've listed the estimates for selected states, NY for reference and SEC + Oklahoma for football. Note that the CDC reported that the multiple that applies to actual vs reported can vary widely from city to city, county to county, or region to region. I haven't found anyone who provides any estimates more granular than the state level.




And this second table is I believe what you requested. I've added the reported number of total and active cases for each county as reported by the TDPH late last night and using the multiplier from UGA estimated what the number of actual total & active cases might be. The last column compares the estimated total cases for the county to the total population of the county.



I'll let you make your own guess about Lake county. Reelfoot lake, the Mississippi river, or the Prison in Tiptonville? I'm going with the prison skewing the numbers. jmo.

 

[UpstateVol613]

 

[i2amavol]

I was/am really hoping the reported cases versus the actual cases was 1 to 20. If it is really 1 to 4.62, then it would appear that we have a long way to go, and might as well be pinning our hopes on a vaccine coming soon.

 

[Fingers]

Haven’t heard as much about Gibbs this summer. Buzz with the receivers has been about the new guys, which is typical because they are new. Wouldn’t read too much into it though re: Gibbs. Everybody is waiting to see how consistent he can be and if he can take practice to the game field. He’s very gifted from a size, speed and ball skills standpoint but can he eliminate what kept him from putting it all together at Georgia? Only time will tell there.

p.brown

 

[OrangenSC]

Update: my mother went from no symptoms to waking up at 4am with a high fever and body aches. I think my sister does not have pneumonia. It's all Covid.

Another note, my dad and mom have no plans to get tested. For every questionable case that gets counted as a positive, I'm certain there are equal or more situations where people know they have it but don't get tested. This happens with the flu as well. The numbers will never be exact. Doesn't mean they're worthless (statistical theories exist to account for the discrepancy between reported and actual values), but worth understanding. I'd say it's more likely the actual cases are lower than reported (due to people who showed mild symptoms or like my family's case) and I wouldn't be able to refute the notion that actual deaths is lower (due to scenarios we've all been aware of).

But it certainly isn't fake. It's very contagious. It's very dangerous. It's very serious. I sure as heck don't want it. Especially not knowing how my body will handle it.

Still praying for your family.

 

[butchna]

I’m sure it’s come up but Washington Hogs would be perfect. The marketing’s already there.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

I was/am really hoping the reported cases versus the actual cases was 1 to 20. If it is really 1 to 4.62, then it would appear that we have a long way to go, and might as well be pinning our hopes on a vaccine coming soon.

I think you only need the high ratio if you’re passive in dealing with the virus. The 4.62 multiplier for the state is just a model number. In reality, every zip code probably has a different number. That said, the thing is we don’t have to let the virus run its course unimpeded. We can fight back and Re is the number on the scoreboard that suggests whether we’re winning or losing. I think it’s kind of tricky and while here in the state of Tennessee we’re coming from behind and are close to taking the lead you can never rule out the possibility that the virus will put in a backup quarterback. jmo.

 

[drvenner]

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Well, they're not masked or social distancing, so....

 

[UTSuave’]

Sorry, can't ever root for the Dodgers, despite my dislike for the cheating Astros. Although, my beloved Cubs getting off to a 4-1 start, makes me want to say, "How 'bout them, Cubs?"

You have my respects.....you all waited a very long time for the hardware.

 

[Fun coupon VOL]

I think you only need the high ratio if you’re passive in dealing with the virus. The 4.62 multiplier for the state is just a model number. In reality, every zip code probably has a different number. That said, the thing is we don’t have to let the virus run its course unimpeded. We can fight back and Re is the number on the scoreboard that suggests whether we’re winning or losing. I think it’s kind of tricky and while here in the state of Tennessee we’re coming from behind and are close to taking the lead you can never rule out the possibility that the virus will put in a backup quarterback. jmo.

Last sentence is ban worthy.

 

[UTSuave’]

No matter what happens this season I think it is very important we remember one defining principle.....WGWTFA!

View attachment 296080

And

 

[drvenner]

You have my respects.....you all waited a very long time for the hardware.

It is my absolute favorite sports moment. I love my vols but I got the police called on me because my neighbors legit thought I was losing my mind when the Cubs won it all.